I'm not quite sure how to describe this article or excerpt it without making some readers' eyes glaze over, but Gretchen Mortenson, a New York Times business writer, thinks we're in serious trouble because the mortgage-based securities market buys and sells an awful lot of Treasury bills and bonds, and thus has the potential to create huge spikes in interest rates. I'm not sure I've even described the process with pinpoint accuracy, but read the article -- it has the rather unambiguous headline "Mortgage Markets Are Out of Control."

The guy who runs the blog Capitalist Lion is patting himself on the back: He thinks he's debunked what he sees as blame-America-firstism in The New York Times -- specifically, a sentence in this Times article:

Intelligence agencies say Al Qaeda already has dozens of missiles, many of them American-made Stingers left over from the war in Afghanistan in the 1980's when the United States supplied them to Afghan guerrillas seeking to oust Soviet troops from their country.

Mr. Lion plays what he thinks is a trump card:

Aside from the moral right or wrong of suppling the mujahideen with Stingers so they could stand something resembling a fighting chance against Soviet Hind helicopters, there's a neat little fact that tends to escape most of the people who jump on the We gave them weapons! bandwagon.

Batteries.

Yes, and not the kind that one picks up at the local 7-11. See, the Hughes/Raytheon's Stinger has fairly sophisticated targeting electronics built into the launcher, which are required to lock on to a target and fire the missile. It's a spiffy kind of chemical battery which has a finite life of about ten years. The missile itself also has a small thermal battery inside it, with roughly the same lifetime.

Without either battery providing the needed power, the tracking electronics don't turn on, the gyros don't spin up, and you have what amounts to a very expensive jack handle.

And finally, Stingers use a three-stage solid fuel rocket motor. It also has a finite life expectancy, and the older they get, the easier it is for the fuel to crack and crumble when the missiles are moved. Know what happens if you pull the trigger on one of those babies when it's too old? Yep. Time to play "It's raining Men" and get out the hefty bags.

Sounds reassuring. Too bad the folks at a Web site run by a little outfit called Jane's -- you know, the folks who've been trusted experts on military matters for a gazillion years -- beg to differ. Here's what the Jane's people say in an article about MANPADs (manportable surface-to-air missiles), including the Stinger:

One popular misconception is that these missiles become unusable after several years due to battery or other systems failures and are therefore useless after a period of time. While it is true that all MANPAD batteries have a finite shelf life, these can be replaced with commercially purchased batteries available on the open market and technically proficient terrorist groups might also be able to construct hybrid batteries to replace used ones.

Other concerns include deterioration of missile propellants and seeker coolant, and general storage issues. While these concerns merit attention, the commonly held assumption that these weapons have short shelf lives is erroneous. Most missiles are hermetically sealed in launchers designed for rough handling by soldiers in the field. Temperature extremes are also factored into the design of these weapons, reducing the threat of environmental degradation.

Clearly, the shelf life of MANPADs is, in large part, dependent on the conditions in which the weapon is stored. However, under ideal (factory specified) conditions, some versions of these weapons can remain operational for 22 years or more.

Mr. Lion also says this:

And finally, we have to look at the Stinger's range. It's about 10,000 feet, maximum. This would limit it to small prop aircraft, helicopters, or jet aircraft as they are taking off or landing. One couldn't pull one out of uncle Bob's pickup truck in the middle of an Iowa corn field and pick off a jumbo at 35,000 feet. It's just not going to happen.

An Iowa cornfield? Maybe not. But people can get way too close to the planes in certain neighborhoods in this country, especially in the East. I know because I grew up in one of those neighborhoods, near a major metropolitan airport. Trust me -- the planes fly low near residential streets. We'd be fools if we shrugged off the risk.

UPDATE: I posted some of what I've written here in Mr. Lion's comments box. He's responded by updating the post -- and his contention is that he's right and Jane's is wrong. Now, this isn't my area of expertise, but the last time I looked, Jane's was the gold standard for this sort of information. So there it stands.

I find it interesting that, in the course of arguing that unauthorized use of old Stingers is highly unlikely, Mr. Lion repeatedly invokes images of splattered terrorists -- he seems to think that fear of sudden death should be enough of a deterrent to prevent terrorists from learning how to jury-rig an outdated MANPAD. I'd like to point out that fear of going splat wasn't much of a deterrent to nineteen terrorists a couple of Septembers ago.

Did you know that you're engaged in trademark violation every time you use the word "oh"?

(UPDATE: Link corrected.)

I hope all the right-wingers who think Al Franken deserves to be sued by Fox for using "fair and balanced" are equally disturbed by the large numbers of people who feel free to use "all the news that's fit to print," some of them conservative, many of them using it as they defame The New York Times. Surely conservative believers in the sanctity of trademark will find this an outrage ... no?

In Friday's New York Times, Nicholas Kristof said it disturbed him to learn that 83% of Americans believe in the virgin birth of Jesus and only 28% believe in evolution. He finds belief in the virgin birth absurd, as did his grandfather, a Presbyterian elder.

I'm grateful that he wrote this, but I do want to point out that of I'd stayed in the Catholic Church I'd now believe in evolution and the virgin birth -- for all its faults, the Catholic Church made peace with evolution a long time ago, and it's one of many churches that have done so. I'm an atheist now, and I figure you can't believe in God without believing some things that defy reason. That's OK; the problem is not believing what massive amounts of evidence shows is true. I'm far more upset at people (including, reortedly, the president of the United States) who don't believe in evolution than I am at people who believe in the virgin birth.

I'm pleasantly shocked to learn that a Field Poll has Cruz Bustamante ahead of Arnold, according to The Washington Post. Hmmm -- I guess voting for Prop. 187, getting 187 champion Pete Wilson to chair your campaign, and getting Pete Wilson's advisers to run your campaign may not be a good idea in a state that's one-third Hispanic....

This story on Afghanistan was in a tiny box in yesterday's New York Times, with no byline. It didn't even get its own link online (scroll down):

The amount of land dedicated to growing the illicit opium poppy, which is the raw material for opium and heroin, jumped to 76,000 acres last year, according to State Department figures. Officials said the numbers continue to rise as growers take advantage of the limited reach of law enforcement under the fledgling government of President Karzai. Afghanistan is the world's largest producer of opium.

By contrast, in 2001, when the Taliban controlled the country and enforced an opium ban, only 4,200 acres were cultivated, according to the State Department's International Narcotics Control Strategy Report.

Donald Rumsfeld responded to this in his usual Wally-Cleaver-meets-General-Buck-Turgidson manner:

A surge in opium cultivation in Afghanistan is "a whale of a tough problem" that defies easy solutions, Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said today.

Gee whillikers, yes, it is, isn't it?

And a big shout-out to all the fair and balanced blogs ... just go here, and, starting around #14 or so, we're most of the first hundred-plus hits you get. By all means check them out.

Hold it, fellas -- that unfairness and imbalance don’t move me! Let’s get real, real fair and balanced for a change....

Fair and balanced? Gosh, yes, fair and balanced! How fair and balanced? Why, so fair and balanced you could just plotz! Heavens -- that’s certainly fair and balanced, isn’t it? Why, it certainly is -- profoundly fair and balanced! Incontrovertibly fair and balanced! Mind-roastingly fair and balanced! By all accounts unprecedentedly fair and balanced! Well, you know what they say: Fair and balanced is as fair and balanced does. When the going gets fair and balanced, the fair and balanced get going. And, me, well -- I believe the fair and balanced children are our future. So half a fair and balanced league, half a fair and balanced league, half a fair and balanced league onward! Into the fair and balanced valley of death rode the fair and balanced six hundred! How do I love thee? Let me count the fair and balanced ways. Ah, look at all the lonely fair and balanced people. Because 911 is a fair and balanced joke in your town.

So are you ready, Rupert? Start suing.

Sorry -- I seem to have overlooked the fact that it's Fair and Balanced Day, when bloggers are supposed to post fair and balanced messages using the phrase fair and balanced as much as possible, in fair and balanced solidarity with Al Franken. I'll try to be fair and balance some of what I've posted with more fair and balancedness.

Oh, this is pathetic:

Actor and Democratic activist Rob Lowe isn't exactly moving from "The West Wing" to the right wing, but he's going to play a real-life role in Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger's gubernatorial campaign, people close to the situation said Thursday.

The 39-year-old actor has been asked by Schwarzenegger and his wife, Democrat Maria Shriver, who are longtime social friends, to take a senior position in the campaign, the sources said. Although Lowe is expected to have a co-chair title, his exact role is still being defined....

--L.A. Times

Rob Lowe -- not someone with political knowledge, but someone who plays someone with political knowledge on TV. It's like a frigging Baudrillard essay.

*******

I was thinking it was possibly a good sign that Warren Buffett was joining Schwarzie's campaign, and then (the good) Roger Ailes pointed out a Wall Street Journal editorial that noted this:

Friends of Nobel Prize winning economist Milton Friedman are urging him to appear in a commercial for Mr. Schwarzenegger, much as he did for Proposition 13 a quarter century ago. Mr. Schwarzenegger has been quoted as saying that for years his favorite Christmas present for friends was Mr. Friedman's book "Free to Choose." Other prominent economic figures who are talking with Mr. Schwarzenegger about a role in the campaign include Steve Forbes, Larry Kudlow, Art Laffer and Steve Moore of the Club for Growth.

Buffett's a critic of right-wing economics. Friedman, Forbes, Kudlow, Laffer, and Moore guys who, when they read Dickens, root for Scrooge and against Bob Cratchit. What sense does this make?

Oh, and now it's being announced that George Shultz will chair Schwarzie's economic team.

This is all about the cult of the macho amateur -- the guy who knows next to nothing but gets smart people to do the thinking for him. Many people like Schwarzenegger just as they liked Bush (and loathed Gore) -- because he swaggers, smirks, and has no idea what he's talking about. They think it's good that Schwarzie -- and Bush -- don't know anything. This, they believe, makes it easier for these macho swaggerers to get in touch with their exquisitely accurate moral compasses and superior ability to process what they're told by smarter (but lesser) folks who are experts.

Because that's part of what makes these guys great: they don't know Jack, but they're so personable they can attract many people who do know Jack -- so many, in fact, that their decisions will be better than decisions made by actual smart people. David Brooks actually made this argument in all seriousness in Salon in 2000 while endorsing Bush for president.

Expect Schwarzie's "all-star team" to get more and more bloated as election day approaches. Expect right-wing pundits to actually start calling it an "all-star team" (or, even worse and more likely, a "dream team").

"I think the first thing that Americans ought to be pleased about is that we're better organized today than we were two-and-a-half years ago to deal with an emergency."

--George W. Bush

So, you see, 9/11 was really kind of a good thing.

Our power just went back on. That SOB Murdoch must really have been desperate to shut down Fair and Balanced Day.

By the way, I'm going to throttle any idiot from National Review Online who proclaims that the Iraqi people are whiners because we had a power outage in America and it wasn't that bad (for fourteen whole hours, and in temperatures that were hot but well under 100 degrees).

A couple of weeks ago I predicted that the Bush administration would try to release David Kay's report on Iraq weapons right around the time of the early Democratic primaries and the State of the Union address. Now it looks as if the administration is planning to give us what it's got in September. In his blog, Joshua Micah Marshall speculates on what we'll get. You should read the whole thing, but here's an excerpt:

What many suspect is that Kay is going to pull an intel version of a classic 1990s-era document dump. In other words, come forward with a mound of documents detailing the Iraqis' extensive programs, their histories, the means used to conceal them, whom they imported parts from, and so forth. And then conveniently leave as a footnote the fact that these program had gone pretty dormant by 2002. The idea will be to make up with paper poundage what the report lacks in relevance. Hit them with twenty reams of report about the Iraqi WMD programs and then figure that the follow-on reports about how little was actually happening in 2002 are buried in the back of the papers after no one is paying attention.

All of this is to say that we're probably set for an elaborate festival of goal post moving courtesy of Mr Kay -- the widely telegraphed switch from weapons to 'programs' being the key sign.

Sounds about right to me -- although I still think it's possible we'll get a multimedia spectacle like the now-discredited Powell dog-and-pony show at the U.N.

Remember when Jacques Chirac made a nasty remark about Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic and said they should try to make themselves seem a little more worthy of membership in the EU? Conservatives sneered. This was during the buildup to the Iraq War (all three countries in question were in the "coalition of the willing"), so of course conservatives were sneering a lot at Chirac and other representatives of "Old Europe." "New Europe" was forward-looking, eagerly shaking off the socialist yoke in anticipation of a free-market future, while "Old Europe" countries such as France and Germany were, as one Heritage Foundation pundit put it, "Socialist in outlook, resistant to change, and Luddite in their thinking ... stuck in the past, and one that is far from glorious."

Well, The New York Times had an article yesterday about three Eastern European countries facing shrinking GDP growth and skyrocketing deficits even as they plan to join the EU -- and the three countries were Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic. What's the trouble? Well, in Hungary, at least, according to the Times, the trouble is ... socialism. Or at least a Socialist Party that's struggling to ensure that citizens have a decent standard of living as jobs flee to lower-wage countries.

Right-wing pundits in America wanted you to think that our Iraq War allies from Eastern Europe are all happy capitalists while "Old Europe" does business following the tenets of Stalin and Mao. Or something like that. This is nonsense. Too bad so many people believe it.

Sensitive souls such as Sean Hannity got the vapors when a member of California's Democratic Party said, metaphorically, that as a declared candidate Arnold Schwarzenegger would now face "real bullets."

Think they'll have a similar reaction when people start showing up at Schwarzie's rallies wearing this shirt?

Is one of Schwarzenegger's top consultants a wife beater and a deadbeat dad? The consultant's ex-wives say so. Roger Ailes (the good one) has the details.

I'd give you a link to video of Ralph Nader being pied, but surely you won't actually click on it, will you?

Nah -- I didn't think so.

Fox sues Donald Rumsfeld!

Sorry, wishful thinking....

He's rich as Croesus. He's praised Hillary Clinton. He called Bush's dividend-tax cut "voodoo economics."

And now Warren Buffett will be a Schwarzenegger economic adviser.

These folks are beside themselves.

This is starting to get interesting....