THE GOP'S OLD WHITE MALE FIREWALL

We've just seen a new survey from the most respected polling operation in America, the New York Times/Siena poll. At first glance, the results seem tremendous for the Democrats:

Likely voters favored Democratic candidates over Republicans by close to 9 percentage points in their congressional district....

Mr. Trump’s approval rating continued to languish at 38 percent among likely voters.... A majority of voters disapproved of Mr. Trump’s handling of every major issue included in the poll: the economy, immigration, tariffs, the war and, especially, the cost of living.

And voters said they trusted Democrats more than Republicans on not just health care and foreign wars but also on the two issues that powered Mr. Trump’s 2024 victory: immigration and the economy.

So: Democrats will have a pretty great midterm cycle? Yes, especially now that the Supreme Court has refused to allow President Trump to subvert the election process by imposing chokeholds on mail ballots.

But will this be a blue tsunami? I'm not so sure.

Let me stop here and say that a blue wave would be very nice. A CBS poll released on Sunday predicted a 228-207 Democratic House. What's not to like? And who imagined last year that a Democratic Senate was within reach?

But if Democrats not only fail to achieve the pipe-dream victories that are now being discussed -- the Kansas Senate race! a blue wave in Florida! -- it'll be because the three most obvious groups are still in the Republicans' corner: old people, white people, and men.

Take a look at some of the crosstabs in the Times poll. Start with this:

Sure, the Democrats have a big lead -- which the Times says rounds up to 9 -- but it's all from women. Men still prefer the GOP.

That's bad because of this:

Men are 6 points more likely than women to say they're "almost certain" to vote.

And there's a massive gap in party preference between under-45s and older people. If only older people could vote, this would be a 50-50 election. If only younger people could vote, it would be a 1932-size Democratic landslide.

Sadly, the youngest voters are, as usual, the least likely to vote, although 30-to-44s seem ready to turn out.

(An obvious explanation for the age gap in prerence for the GOP is that younger people have had much greater difficulties in establishing themselves economically -- getting good jobs, obtaining good housing. But I have another theory: older people learn about politics from traditional news sources, where Republican messaging dominates and Democrats appear tepid and weak, while younger people learn about politics from social media, where influencers unconnected to the Democratic Party do a much better job of explaining how much Trump and Republicans suck.)

And, of course, it all comes down to race. Even now, the GOP is the party of white people -- if only white people could vote, the GOP would flat-out win the midterms.

And -- again sadly -- white people are much more likely to be "almost certain" they'll vote.

Maybe this poll is wrong. Maybe the rage out there is greater than what's reflected here. Maybe old white men won't really show up to vote in much bigger numbers than the rest of America. But the usual demographic groups really might ensure that the midterms are merely a shellacking for the GOP and not a total wipeout.