IF DEMOCRATS AREN'T CLOSING THE SALE, IT'S FOR A GLARINGLY OBVIOUS REASON

In nearly every poll this year, disapproval of President Trump's job performance has been much greater than the Democratic advantage on the generic House ballot. However, until now I haven't seen a poll with a gap this large:

A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey ... finds that Trump’s overall support continues to decline....

In this May poll, 38% approve of how he is handling his job as president, while 62% disapprove, a net approval of -24 percentage points....

Looking ahead to the November congressional elections, among registered voters, 46% say they would vote for the Democratic candidate and 45% would vote for the Republican, with 7% saying they would vote for neither and 1% who say they would not vote. The slight Democratic advantage is also seen among likely voters, i.e., those who say they are certain they will vote, with 49% saying they would vote for a Democratic candidate and 48% for a Republican candidate.

The congressional vote has tightened substantially from April when, among registered voters, 48% backed Democratic candidates and 44% supported Republicans, and there was a large Democratic advantage among likely voters, 53% for Democrats and 43% for Republicans.

So Trump is at -24, but Democrats are only at +1. Among likely voters, Democrats were at +10 in April, but that advantage shrunk by 9 points. We're told:

Some of this shift is due to an increase in likelihood of voting among Republicans and a decline among Democrats. In April, 56% of Republicans said they were certain to vote in November, which rose to 59% in May. Among Democrats, those certain to vote declined from 67% in April to 58% in May.

It's just one poll, and maybe it's an outlier -- in the Real Clear Politics average, Democrats have an advantage of 6.8 points. But Trump's job approval is at -16.7 points.

Why the gap? The Marquette poll makes this fairly obvious:

Among nine issues, the Republicans are seen as considerably better able to handle three issues than Democrats and slightly better on two issues. Democrats are seen as slightly better on two issues and substantially better on two issues.

After sixteen months of Trump and a GOP House and Senate, Americans are disgusted at the state of the country -- but they still prefer Republicans on five of nine issues.

Republicans have substantial advantages on crime, immigration and border security, and national defense, and a have a slight advantage on the federal deficit and taxes. Democrats have slight advantages on the economy and on inflation, and have large advantages on the topic of Medicare and Social Security and on health care.

I understand why voters might back Republicans on immigration and border security -- polls suggest that voters want a tighter border and deportations, though they don't approve of Trump's heavy-handed approach. And it seems to be impossible to persuade Americans that crime has been falling since the 1990s, and is low in many Democratic-led cities.

But national defense? Do poll respondents understand which party refuses to intercede to stop Trump's unpopular and ruinous war with Iran? Do they understand which party won't challenge Trump's attacks on allies and organizations meant to sustain global peace?

And on taxes, do respondents know which party voted for the very unpopular One Big Beautiful Bill, which was a giveaway to the rich?

We know they don't know who's running up a massive federal deficit right now, because they were asked: While 72% of respondents say they've "heard or read a lot" about the war with Iran, only 28% say the same about news that federal debt is now greater than U.S. GDP.

Why don't voters link these governing failures to Republicans? Democrats blame Trump, but they don't blame the GOP, and they need to start.

On the campaign trail, individual Democrats will link their opponents to Trump. That will be effective -- but they need to do more. The Republican Party needs to be thoroughly discredited. It needs to be portrayed as a party that always blows up the deficit in order to make billionaires richer, while slashing programs for ordinary people. It needs to be discredited as a party that always gets America into ill-advised wars. Add that to the abortion restrictions, the refusal to raise the minimum wage, the deep health care cuts, and dozens of other failings, and you might start building a case for why the GOP and not just Trump needs to be opposed, and needs to be opposed in every election for the foreseeable future, not just while Trump is in the White House.