According to a new analysis by Fair Fight Action, a voting rights group, Democrats could redraw anywhere from 10 to 22 additional congressional seats for the party in time for the 2028 elections if they push hard with redistricting in seven blue and swing states.The analysis argues, for instance, that "three congressional seats are gettable in Wisconsin, three in Minnesota, and up to six in Pennsylvania" if Democrats establish complete legislative control by flipping both houses of the legislature in Wisconsin and one house each in Minnesota and Pennsylvania -- although the Minnesota state constitution appears to ban an immediate redistricting there.
... even if Democrats flip zero chambers, they can redraw up to 10 additional congressional districts for the party, the analysis finds, by maximizing gerrymanders in New York, Colorado, Oregon, and Maryland, where Democrats control governorships and state legislatures.
But even more strikingly, Democrats could redraw as many as 22 additional congressional districts for the party overall if they flip legislative chambers in other states and redraw aggressively in them, the analysis finds.
I think Democrats will do very well in state legislative races this year, primarily because anger at Donald Trump will motivate millions of voters around the country to turn out in order to replace rubber-stamp Republicans in Congress. These voters are likely to vote Democratic downballot as well. All of the state legislative chambers mentioned above could flip.
But Democrats put a lot of political capital at risk when they redistrict, and they might struggle to sustain popular support for redistricting in states where they haven't done it. Notice that Abigail Spanberger won the 2025 Virginia governor's race by 15 points, 57.58% to 42.22%, but last month's redistricting referendum passed by roughly 3 points, 51.69% to 48.31% -- and Spanberger has a job approval rating of 47%, with 46% disapproving, according to a Washington Post poll conducted a month ago. Her support for redistricting is a major reason for this decline in support.
As I've often pointed out, both conservatives and moderates outnumber liberals in America. That's been true for many years, although the gap is narrowing:
Democrats are competitive nationally (and have won the popular vote in seven of the last nine presidential elections) because their voter base includes a greater percentage of self-styled moderates than the GOP base does. "Moderate" might be a meaningless term these days -- moderates these days are angry about many things that anger liberals -- but there's clearly a larger voting bloc that's loyal to the GOP, the party of conservatism, and that wants the opposition party to suffer whenever possible. Anger about the Republican gerrymandering that's taken place since 2010 doesn't seem to have cost any Republicans their seats, or even lowered their approval ratings. That's because Republicans hate Democrats. Republicans are trained to hate Democrats. The media voices they trust tell them every day that Democrats are evil. Even when non-MAGA Republicans witness offputting acts by the president, they tell themselves, "But Democrats are worse."
Democrats attempting to redistrict as aggressively as Republicans won't have as large a base of voters who hate Republicans. I think they'll succeed in many states by invoking Trump, but in states where they might be required to wait until 2030 -- when Trump will (presumably!) be out of office -- they might regret all the invocations of bipartisanship and working across the aisle that they're so fond of.
They'll also be fighting a party that's much better at rallying its voters than Democrats are.
Abigail Spanberger is a radical, communist, psychopath cosplaying as a normal person.
— Meghan McCain (@MeghanMcCain) April 6, 2026
She is in the process of to dragging the state of Virginia to Marxist Mamdani hell just like California and New York.
She is a deeply destructive person. https://t.co/lavOZbtB4y
GOP rhetoric of this kind can be effective against Democratic governors and state legislators. Republicans are good at demonizing Democrats. Democrats are good at demonizing ... Trump. They haven't built a sustained case against the Republican Party over the years, and they may struggle to win support for aggressive redistricting as a result.
Democrats might get this done, but I want to make clear that it won't happen automatically in states with full Democratic control, especially if the party's legislative majorities are small. Republicans will work hard to make Democrats pay a price for redistricting, something Democrats have never managed to do to Republican redistricters. Democrats need to be willing to pay that price, and to fight for their maps by discrediting the entire GOP, not just Trump.
