DEMOCRATS MISSED AN OPPORTUNITY

The headline of a new Politico story reads:

Republicans hopeful Iran deal could stop the pain at the pump — but it may be too late

Sadly, I think they're worrying for no reason. The story tells us:

Gas prices have been falling since their pre-Memorial Day peak of $4.56 per gallon in anticipation of a deal to end the war, now hovering just above $4 a gallon. A reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could accelerate that trend though it could take months, as the strait is freed of mines, tankers start the slow work of picking up oil shipments and Middle Eastern countries work to restore oil and gas fields hit by Iranian missiles.

But "months" probably means "by fall" -- exactly when Republicans want gas prices to be considerably lower. I think that timelime is what motivated Trump to agree to a (bad) deal at this exact moment.

Is it too late for Republicans? Are they cooked? Regrettably, it doesn't appear that way. Already, the small decline in the price of gas seems to be correlated with improved polling for President Trump and the GOP. On May 26, Trump's net job approval was -19.0 in the Real Clear Politics average: 39.6% approve, 58.6% disapprove. Now it's -15.0%: 40.9% approve, 55.9% disapprove. And Democrats' lead on the generic congressional ballot has also shrunk, according to RCP: On May 28, it was 8.1% (Democrats 48.8%, Republicans 40.7%). Now it's 5.7% (Democrats 48.3%, Republicans 42.6%).

The deal could fall apart. But I think the most likely scenario is that we'll reach Day 60 of the negotiating period without a final agreement and both sides will just kick the can down the road, maybe for ninety days this time, to get Trump past Election Day. If the Strait of Hormuz is open, even with tolls (or no tolls but "fees"), gas prices will improve. And that might be all Republicans need (along with gerrymandering, intimidation of voter registration workers, and other forms of skulduggery) to minimize their losses. People who study the data know that gas prices are tightly correlated with approval of the party in power.

I know, I know -- Trump is likely to keep mismanaging the country in the runup to November. But even Trump will have a hard time making a mistake as huge as the Iran war.

Which is why I'm beginning to worry that Democrats aren't going to get their blue tsunami, and might not even get a big blue wave. The 2026 midterms could be a mirror image of the 2022 midterms, when Republicans expected a red tsunami and had a net gain of only 9 seats in the House, and a net loss of 1 in the Senate.

Democrats have failed to capitalize on the trough in Trump's polling. This was the moment when they needed to look vigorous, confident, and full of ideas for getting the country out of its morass. I watched Bill Clinton do that in the spring of 1992. He might have been a different kind of Democrat -- pro-death penalty, moderate on other issues -- but he didn't go around apologizing for others in his party. He just talked confidently about his agenda.

Democrats today still seem to be trying to figure out what they stand for, with the general election less than five months away. A Democrat who isn't afraid to talk about his agenda, Graham Platner, just won more primary votes than any previous Democratic Senate primary candidate in his state, despite being -- like Clinton in 1992 -- partly weighed down by scandal. But Platner is an exception.

Over the last few months, Democrats should have carried themselves with confidence, knowing that the public is tired of the other party's approach to governing. They should have behaved as if it's obvious that they're the normal ones. I think they missed their shot. I still believe they'll win the House, and a takeover of the Senate isn't out of the question, but it'll be because swing voters who chose Trump in 2024 decide to stay home, not because Democrats have won a significant number of those voters over.

Democrats have time to become a more impressive party. But a party that won't even rally to defend Michelle Obama -- Michelle Obama! -- doesn't look like a party that has enough fight in it to stand up for ordinary voters, at least for now.