TRUMP'S PLAN TO SALVAGE THE MIDTERMS: SURRENDER

In the latest New York Times roundtable, Michelle Cottle says that President Trump doesn't seem to be doing anything to improve his party's standing ahead of the midterms:

... as best I can see, Trump doesn’t even really seem motivated to focus on things that could turn it around. I mean, he’s doing his ballroom and his arch and the Reflecting Pool and his war, and maybe he’s going to invade Cuba, and he’s making statements about how he doesn’t care about Americans’ affordability crisis

What am I missing? What do you guys see that he is aggressively investing in, that suggests he gives two figs about turning this around? Besides rigging the game, of course....

Jamelle Bouie replies:

I don’t think there’s any evidence that this even crosses his mind.

Bouie cites Trump's belief in the Power of Positive Thinking, as well as information flow in the White House, which is designed to feed Trump only good news.

But as the midterms approach, it's clear that Trump does care about the opinions of people who don't like him. So he has a plan to make Republicans' more popular by November:

Surrender in Iran.

On Thursday, Robert Kagan wrote this in The Atlantic:

The outlines of President Trump’s endgame in the Iran war are now emerging. In a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday, Trump reportedly explained that the United States was negotiating a “letter of intent” with Iran that would “formally end the war and launch a 30-day period of negotiations” on Iran’s nuclear program and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The purpose and effect of such an agreement should be clear: The United States is walking away from the crisis....

In 30 days ... the new Iranian strait regime may already be firmly in place. As the Institute for the Study of War reports, Iran has been using the cease-fire period to “normalize” its control over the strait by “compelling oil-importing countries” to establish transit agreements with Tehran and charging fees on vessels from nations without such deals. According to Iranian officials, the new strait regime will give Iran’s strategic partners, such as Russia and China, priority and allow nations friendly to Iran, such as India and Pakistan, to negotiate their own transit agreements. Vessels associated with nations that Iran regards as an adversary will be denied access to the strait entirely.

Several nations, including South Korea, Turkey, and Iraq, are reportedly already negotiating at least temporary transit agreements. Now that Trump has made clear he has no intention of fighting to reopen the strait, the stampede to get good terms with Tehran will begin.... By the end of 30 days, most of the world will have a stake in the new arrangement and will oppose any resumption of hostilities, even in the unlikely event that Trump wanted to go back to war.

Trump no doubt hopes that he can slip away without Americans noticing the magnitude of this defeat.

And now...

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— George Conway ⚖️🇺🇸 (@gtconway.bsky.social) May 23, 2026 at 8:37 PM

Iran was supposed to be scared into submission by Trump's bombing threats. Instead, Trump was scared into submission by this:

Jeff Currie, executive co-chairman at Abaxx Commodity Exchange, said that physical shortages [of oil] could hit Europe “any day now,” and the severity of the ongoing supply crunch is not yet reflected in oil prices....

Speaking with CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” ... Currie said that oil supply concerns will intensify as inventories are depleted, adding that once the shortages hit, prices will go “non-linear.”

Currie said the oil market is currently in the midst of its “shoulder months” — traditionally the weakest part of the commodity demand cycle throughout the year, coming out of the heating season and heading into the driving season.

But, with the U.S. Memorial Day and U.K.’s spring bank holidays approaching, demand for diesel, gasoline and oil will rise sharply. “That’s when you’re going to begin to feel it,” Currie said.

Trump is trying to avoid an imminent spike in the global price of oil, and thus for a tank of gas in the U.S. And he appears to have grasped the fact that he needs to act now in order to rein in gas prices before voting starts in the midterms:

SocGen analysts said that even if the Strait [of Hormuz] were to reopen by early June, the complex physical supply chain sequence of getting more oil online — involving tanker transit, discharge, refining and distribution — still means a delay of at least 52 days....

A late June reopening, meanwhile, would bring “deeper and more prolonged stress”, with physical relief pushed back into late August and meaningful normalization not expected until September, according to SocGen.

But an even lengthier delay to reopening could see oil prices pushed toward $150 per barrel and staying elevated for the rest of the year.

So Trump will surrender, and Trump will declare victory, adding this to the absurd list of wars he claims he's ended as president. (He'll say he ended a 47-year war.) At least 30% of Americans will believe whatever he says.

And then it's on to Cuba. Americans oppose the upcoming Cuba war by a 64%-15% margin, but it will undoubtedly be less of a clusterfuck than the Iran war. It's quite possible that it will look like a victory. It won't improve ordinary Americans' lives, but it may serve as a moderately successful distraction if it doesn't make their lives worse.

If all this works, Trump will at least have stopped the bleeding for the GOP. But there's still time for the deal to come apart, and there's a great likelihood that Trump will do something else that's wildly unpopular between now and the fall.