A MODEST PROPOSAL: THE NEW YORK TIMES SHOULD FACT-CHECK ITS FOCUS GROUPS

The New York Times has just published the transcript of yet another focus group made up of Trump voters. And while it's nice to see that the participants are unhappy with the president -- the headline is

‘Disappointed,’ ‘Surprised,’ ‘Betrayed’: 12 Trump Voters on What Has Gone Wrong

-- the discussion makes clear that Trump voters "know" a lot of things that just aren't true.

For instance:

Let's unpack some of this.

There was a lot of crime, and he did cut down on a lot of that.

There was, in fact, a significant decline in crime last year:

Data from 40 American cities shows a decrease in crime across 11 out of 13 categories of offenses last year compared to 2024, the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) found in a new analysis.... Nine of those offenses, ranging from shoplifting to carjacking to aggravated assault, declined by 10% or more.

The homicide rate fell 21% in 35 cities which provided data for the crime....

But crime in America has been declining for decades, despite an uptick at the height of the COVID pandemic:

And 2024 -- the last full year of Joe Biden's presidency -- also saw a large drop in crime:

Data and analysis from the FBI, Council on Criminal Justice, and Major Cities Chiefs Association all show that, overall, crime went down significantly in 2024, with violent crime largely returning to pre-pandemic levels.... homicide rates in Baltimore, Detroit, and St. Louis declined even beyond pre-pandemic levels to historically low 2014 rates.

Franceska continues:

Not all that crime was coming from immigrants.

I'd really like to know what percentage of crime in America Trump voters believe is committed by immigrants. Do they think immigrants commit the majority of crime in America? I think they might.

Many of us (although few if any Trump voters) know that immigrants commit crimes at a lower rate than native-born Americans, as the National Institute of Justice reported in 2024:

An NIJ-funded study examining data from the Texas Department of Public Safety estimated the rate at which undocumented immigrants are arrested for committing crimes. The study found that undocumented immigrants are arrested at less than half the rate of native-born U.S. citizens for violent and drug crimes and a quarter the rate of native-born citizens for property crimes.

And the Cato Institute tells us:

All immigrants, both legal and illegal, are less likely to be incarcerated than native-born Americans. The 2024 native-born American incarceration rate of 1,195 per 100,000 natives is the highest of the three groups analyzed. Legal immigrants have the lowest incarceration rate, at 303 per 100,000 legal immigrants in 2024. Illegal immigrants have an incarceration rate of 674 per 100,000 illegal immigrants, higher than legal immigrants but also lower than native-born Americans.

During the Biden presidency, there were approximately 14 million undocumented immigrants in America. The U.S. population is 342 million. So these immigrants make up 4% of the population. They can't possibly be the main source of crime in America.

John says:

And he initiated getting us out of the World Health Organization and the Paris climate agreement. Two positive things, I guess, if you really look at it on the whole. I mean, that was accounting for a lot of our budget money.

In fiscal year 2025, the federal government spent $7.01 trillion. In 2024-25, U.S. contributions to the World Health Organization were supposed to be $750.9 million. That money, which was withheld by the Trump administration, would have been .01071184% of the federal budget.
That's not "a lot of our budget money."
In 2016, President Barack Obama committed $3 billion to the Green Climate Fund under the Paris Agreement. The U.S. had budget expenditures of $3.982 trillion in fiscal year 2017, so that $3 billion (again, withheld by President Trump) would have been .075339025% of the federal budget.

The Times could refute some of the focus group participants' assertions subtly, via linked footnotes or a sidebar. But the Times assembles far more focus groups of Trump voters than Trump skeptics...

... and I assume the paper wouldn't dream of challenging the assertions of these raw, elemental Real Americans. (Yes, I think the Times considers even Black and Hispanic Trump supporters to be genuine Volk whose wisdom must never be challenged, unlike the opinions of icky liberals.)

I'd extend fact-checking to all Times focus groups, even the rare ones that include Democratic voters. But it will never happen.