Monday, January 19, 2026

IMAGINE HOW MANY SEATS DEMOCRATS COULD WIN IN NOVEMBER IF THEY ACTUALLY RAN AGAINST THEIR OPPONENTS

There's some good news and some bad news for Democrats in recent polling. This is very good news:
The Democratic Party has a deeply motivated base and a clear advantage on the generic congressional ballot ahead of this fall’s midterms despite dismal impressions of its current leaders in Congress, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.

Democratic registered voters are far more motivated right now than Republicans. While the party has a 5-point edge on the generic ballot, among those who say they’re deeply motivated to vote, that advantage expands to a massive 16 points.
Democratic voters are dissatisfied with the party's congressional leadership, but they're ready to vote Democratic, in a big way. That's good.

This is not so good:


On issue after issue, according to the latest Wall Street Journal poll, voters think Republicans -- specifically, Republicans in Congress -- would do a better job than Democrats in Congress. This is in spite of the fact that voters are quite unhappy with the way the Republican president of the United States is handling these same issues:
... more voters disapprove than approve of his handling of inflation—by 17 percentage points, a worse showing than the 11-point gap in July. By 10 percentage points, more voters disapprove than approve of his handling of the economy.

... 58% of voters in the survey said that Trump’s policies were most responsible for the current economy, while 31% said former President Joe Biden’s policies were most responsible.

And many voters in the survey think Trump has distracted himself from what is most important.

Majorities say they disapprove when asked whether Trump has the right priorities, is looking out for middle-class families or cares about “people like you.” Asked about the president’s attention to Venezuela, Iran and other countries, a 53% majority says he is focusing on unnecessary foreign matters at the expense of the economy, while 42% say he’s working on urgent national security threats.


Voters strongly disapprove of Trump's handling of the economy, inflation, foreign policy, and immigration, yet they think his rubber-stamp party-mates in Congress would do a better job than Democrats on all these issues. Why?

This is what happens when Democrats incessantly sing the praises of bipartisanship and refuse to say that the opposition party is bad because they think it will somehow offend Chuck Schumer's mythical Baileys if they do.

You're probably tired of hearing me say this, but it is normal politics to say that the other party is bad and your own party is better. Democrats reverse this. The party's leaders and consultants can't stop engaging in public criticism of fellow Democrats, who are accused of being "weak and woke" and alienating voters with "faculty-lounge language," and they regularly vow to work across the aisle if elected, even though the people they'd work across the aisle with are the principal enablers of a very unpopular president.

And Democrats' message is weak tea. Here's a Chuck Schumer quote from The Bulwark. Schumer is talking about the possibility that Democrats could win the Senate:
SCHUMER: Let me say this: We have a strong, clear path to winning the majority. We are on our front foot and we are in much, much better shape than people ever thought we would be. A year ago, people thought we had no chance of taking back the Senate. And then I laid out to people that we had to do three things to take back the Senate: recruit candidates in our battleground states, create a political environment where across the country Trump was much weaker, and show that when we get back in charge, we’re going to actually do things. That we’re not just criticizing them.

You will see in the next months, we’re going to be focusing on five buckets. One is housing, one is the high price of food [and] food monopolies playing a major role there. One is electricity. One is the high cost of childcare. And then, of course, health care.
None of these messages -- these "buckets" -- are The Republican Party is dragging this country to hell, and we need to stop them.

I think the messaging will improve in individual races, as it did in New Jersey and Virginia last year. But this is a long-term problem for the Democratic Party. The Republican Party is led by a very unpopular president, a man who inspires blind loyalty in all but a handful of Republicans, but Democrats refuse to say, The GOP is bad for America.

Say it with me now, Chuck: The GOP is the party of inflation and tariffs. The GOP is the party of invading Greenland. The GOP is the party of shooting mothers in the face. There -- that wasn't so hard, was it?

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