Elon Musk, the world’s wealthiest person and the country’s biggest political donor, said on Saturday that he would create a new political party....It's probably not worth worrying about, because Musk doesn't seem to be doing it in a serious way:
“When it comes to bankrupting our country with waste & graft, we live in a one-party system, not a democracy,” Mr. Musk wrote on X, his social media website, on Saturday. “Today, the America Party is formed to give you back your freedom.”
Mr. Musk ... had not filed paperwork as of Saturday evening for the new party, though he added in a separate post that the America Party would be active in elections “next year.” No immediate signs suggested that Mr. Musk was working to establish his party quickly. Any new entity would be required to be disclosed to the Federal Election Commission.He hasn't taken any of the practical steps he'd need to take to get the project off the ground. This doesn't count:
Mr. Musk has spoken with friends in recent days about his plan for a political party and what it would take to accomplish it, according to a person briefed on those conversations. The discussions have been more conceptual than pragmatic, the person said.
🆕 On Twitter, @elonmusk has started following @andrewyang + https://x.com/elonmusk + https://x.com/andrewyang
— Big Tech Alert (@bigtechalert.bsky.social) July 5, 2025 at 10:53 AM
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But what if he does it? The most optimistic way of looking at the project is also the most simplistic: Musk became a Republican and a Donald Trump fan; Musk now wants to start a political party using his great wealth; therefore, Musk's candidates would split the Republican vote and help Democrats.
But we see what happens to Republicans who challenge the God Emperor: they instantly become pariahs within the GOP. It's already happening to Thomas Massie, one of the two House Republicans who voted against the Big Beautiful Bill (he also co-sponsored a bill that would have required congressional authorization for an attack on Iran):
Republican Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky risks losing his seat in Congress amid his battles with President Donald Trump, according to a new poll.Massie was primaried in 2020, 2022, and 2024, but he won all those primaries with more than 75% of the vote. He won approximately two-thirds of the vote in the 2020 and 2022 general elections, and was seen as so unbeatable in 2024 that he didn't even have a Democratic challenger. But now he's an unperson in the GOP.
Polling from Kaplan Strategies found that Massie was unpopular among Republican voters and would lose more support if Trump endorsed a primary opponent....
The poll of 368 likely GOP primary voters found that 19 percent said they planned to vote for Massie in the 2026 Republican primary. If Trump endorsed a primary opponent, the proportion of people voting for Massie would drop to 14 percent.
The poll also showed that 23 percent of respondents viewed the representative favorably, while 62 percent viewed him unfavorably.
The same is true of Musk, as YouGov found shortly after he and Trump started feuding:
Republicans sided with Trump by a 71%-6% margin. That 6% is lower than the percentage of independents (8%) and Democrats (11%) who side with Musk.
I'm not saying that engaged, well-informed Democrats would defect to America Party candidates. I'm saying that less-committed Democrats and moderate independents who frequently vote Democratic might be more likely to defect than Republicans. Remember, the Democratic Party needs self-identified moderates in order to win. Far more Americans identify as conservative than liberal:
An average of 37% of Americans describe their political views as “very conservative” or “conservative,” 34% as “moderate,” and 25% as “very liberal” or “liberal.”
— Gallup (@Gallup) January 22, 2025
Full story: https://t.co/WdgWywJxbR pic.twitter.com/O5nN4urmri
Yet electorally we're a 50-50 country. That means that Democrats do better with self-styled moderates than Republicans do.
Remember No Labels? Pollsters in 2023 found that a No Labels candidate took more votes away from the Democratic presidential ticket than from Trump. America Party candidates could do that, too.
On the other hand, Musk's candidates will probably be bog-standard Republicans on most issues. They'll be hardcore on budget deficits, and almost certainly opposed to higher taxes on rich people. Maybe they'll accept the existence of alternative energy. Candidates with that profile might cut into the GOP vote.
But it could be pointless to take this seriously. Even if the highly distractible Musk follows through, he'll have a hard time finding appealing candidates who are willing to burn their bridges to the GOP in what they assume will be a losing battle. So this will probably fizzle out like No Labels.
Musk is starting us off with low expectations:
One way to execute on this would be to laser-focus on just 2 or 3 Senate seats and 8 to 10 House districts.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 4, 2025
Given the razor-thin legislative margins, that would be enough to serve as the deciding vote on contentious laws, ensuring that they serve the true will of the people.
Would Musk pick races Democrats could win, and then serve as a spoiler? That's possible. Would Musk try to unseat far-right Freedom Caucus members who yielded to pressure from Trump, even though they're mostly in deep-red districts and are thus unlikely to lose? Also possible.
Will Musk realize that he can't effortlessly gain leverage over the entire Congress and bail on the entire project? That's quite possible. I think the most likely outcome is that he'll abandon the project. He might well engineer a rapprochement with Trump and the GOP by 2026. But if he does what he's promising to do now -- a big if -- there's a chance it could help the Republican Party.
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