THE GOP IS A NICHE PARTY

The new New York Times/Siena College poll is very bad for Donald Trump. I'll let Nate Cohn explain:

You would be hard pressed to find a single “good” number for Mr. Trump in the survey.

His job approval rating is just 42 percent, and voters disapproved of his handling of every issue tested in the survey, including longstanding strengths like immigration and the economy.

Only 43 percent view him favorably, down from 48 percent in the final Times/Siena poll before the election and the lowest since his attempted assassination last July.

On question after question, voters say he’s going too far. Sixty-six percent of them say “chaotic” describes Mr. Trump’s second term well; 59 percent say “scary” fits at least somewhat well.

Cohn reminds us of the conventional wisdom of a few months ago, which most elite commentators believed (and many centrist Democrats still seem to believe):

Bring yourself back to the beginning of the year, when Mr. Trump was basking in victory, when there was talk of a rightward cultural “vibe shift” or even an incipient realignment....

While he won only narrowly, the election was still a decisive victory for populist conservative politics over an exhausted liberalism. There were countless opportunities for him to push major initiatives with significant public support, on issues like immigration, crime, energy, “woke” or the economy. Back in January, it seemed possible for Mr. Trump to solidify a coalition behind these issues.

Not anymore.

Remember the widespread belief that young people in particular were now Trumpers for life? That moment appears to be over. I'm looking at the crosstabs, and on issue after issue the 18-29 age group rejects Trump more vigorously than older people.

Question: "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?"

* Respondents overall: 42% approve, 54% disapprove.
* 18-29-year-olds: 26% approve, 69% disapprove.


Question: "Please tell me if this describes Donald Trump very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well: Understands the problems facing people like you."

* Respondents overall: 44% well, 54% not well.
* 18-29-year-olds: 28% well, 72% not well.


Question: "For each of the following, tell me whether you support or oppose the policy. Deporting immigrants living in the United States illegally back to their home countries."

* Respondents overall: 54% support, 42% oppose.
* 18-29-year-olds: 37% support, 61% oppose.


Question: "The tariffs imposed by President Trump."

* Respondents overall: 39% support, 55% oppose.
* 18-29-year-olds: 20% support, 71% oppose.


Question: "Government spending cuts by DOGE."

* Respondents overall: 42% support, 44% oppose.
* 18-29-year-olds: 17% support, 65% oppose.

It's all like this. As a result, 18-29-year-olds say they'd support a Democrat in the 2026 midterms by a margin of 59% to 30%. (Overall, it's 47% to 44% in Democrats' favor.)

We're regularly told that the Democratic Party has become a niche party -- that the party's core is educated, well-off whites -- but this poll suggests that the Republican Party is a niche party now. College-educated whites, college-educated non-whites, and non-college-educated non-whites all reject what Trump is doing. Only non-college-educated whites offer support.

Question: "Tell me whether you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump has handled each of the following issues as president: The economy."

* White, college: 33% approve, 65% disapprove.
* Non-white, college: 26% approve, 72% disapprove.
* Non-white, no college: 34% approve, 62% disapprove.
* White, no college: 58% approve, 40% disapprove.


Question: "Immigration."

* White, college: 39% approve, 59% disapprove.
* Non-white, college: 39% approve, 60% disapprove.
* Non-white, no college: 32% approve, 65% disapprove.
* White, no college: 60% approve, 38% disapprove.


Question: "Managing the federal government."

* White, college: 35% approve, 64% disapprove.
* Non-white, college: 40% approve, 53% disapprove.
* Non-white, no college: 34% approve, 57% disapprove.
* White, no college: 55% approve, 41% disapprove.


Question: "Trade with other countries."

* White, college: 34% approve, 64% disapprove.
* Non-white, college: 27% approve, 66% disapprove.
* Non-white, no college: 39% approve, 59% disapprove.
* White, no college: 54% approve, 40% disapprove.

The pattern keeps repeating. Trump's alleged new coalition of blue-collar Americans of all races is now a coalition of blue-collar white people only.

The press won't tell you this because the press believes that blue-collar whites are normative, blue-collar non-whites are of interest only when they support Republicans, and college-educated people aren't Americans at all. But that's absurd. We're all Americans. And everyone seems to be abandoning Trump except one demographic group.