"When people are feeling insecure, they'd rather have someone who is strong and wrong rather than somebody who is weak and right."That seems to be borne out by a new CBS poll.
These aren't great early numbers for Trump -- at a similar point in Joe Biden's presidency, he had a 59%-35% job approval rating according to Politico/Morning Consult, a 53%-40% rating according to The Economist/YouGov, and a 60%-40% rating according to The Hill/HarrisX. Nevertheless, Trump is in positive territory.
Some of his policies appear to be genuinely popular. There's 59%-41% support for the deportation program and 64%-36% support for sending troops to the southern border. Also, when respondents are asked whether Trump's focus on certain issues is too much, not enough, or the right amount, "right amount" is the top answer for "Cutting government spending," "Ending diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs," and "Cutting U.S. foreign aid programs" (though in each case, "right amount" is chosen by less the a majority of respondents).
But some of the numbers in the poll suggest that respondents like Trump because he's very vigorously doing something, even if they don't necessarily like it or think it will work.
The numbers start to look weird when you see these paired results:
So voters approve of Trump's approach to Gaza while disapproving of what is apparently the centerpiece of his approach to Gaza.
In a separate question, respondents are asked, "What do you think is Donald Trump’s goal when he talks about the U.S. taking over Gaza?" The answers are:
Have the U.S. take over Gaza: 22%If you add choices 1 and 3, it seems that 51% of respondents think Trump actually wants to take over Gaza -- which only 13% of respondents think would be a good idea! But 54% think he's doing a good job on Gaza anyway.
Start negotiations with countries in the Middle East for something else: 28%
Both: 29%
Neither: 21%
By a large margin, the respondents don't believe that Trump is focusing enough on prices:
In fact, 47% of respondents say that in recent weeks the prices for things they buy have been increasing, while only 3% say they're decreasing, and 63% say egg prices are going up. Trump's approach to the economy gets a lukewarm-to-negative response overall. Only 35% of respondents think Trump's policies will make them financially better off. A majority -- 51% -- think his policies will make food prices go up, while only 28% think the policies will lower food prices. The respondents aren't very fond of tariffs:
In fact, 73% of them think new tariffs will raise prices on the the things they buy, and only 32% think they'll help create U.S. jobs. Only 33% of respondents believe tariffs will reduce the amount of fentanyl in this country, while 55% think it will have no effect.
But there's a lesson here for Democrats who think they can watch all the madness and just shout, "What about egg prices?" Trump isn't addressing voters' #1 issue in the 2024 election, and the respondents in this poll know that -- and yet his job approval is positive. That tells me that voters are pleased to have a president who's taking some kind of decisive action and making sure we know he's taking decisive action -- unlike Joe Biden.
It will probably take a while for disillusionment to settle in. Democrats need to talk about everything that has the potential to go wrong, and not be deterred if the message doesn't get through right away. Right now, quite a few Americans like the administration's energy, and appreciate a few of the policies. But it's not the level of optimism that's normal at the beginning of a presidential term, and there's skepticism on several fronts. Anti-Trump messages ought to start making sense to many voters in the next few months. Let's hope the totalitarian capture of the government can at least be partly reversed by then.
