AT THIS POINT, I'M NOT SURE KAMALA HARRIS CAN REJECT JOSH SHAPIRO

As a presidential candidate, Kamala Harris has been very good at taking on her Republican opponent and his party. I worry that she's not as good at dealing with the threats to her campaign from her own party.

Harris has been assessing possible running mates, and it appears that Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro is the favorite. He's getting the most positive press, he's way ahead in the betting markets -- and now he's the subject of a New York Times op-ed by allegedly Democratic pollster Mark Penn. After his wife's work with No Labels and his own work on his wife's behalf, I don't think anyone in politics sees Penn as a Democrat in good standing. However, his arguments are the kind that resonate with many powerful Democrats, especially those who still believe the winning formula for the party is to be as non-Democratic as possible, an approach that might be successful if we suddenly wake up in 1992 again.

Penn praises Shapiro for the reasons you'd expect ...

He has supported Israel and has been strongly critical of the campus protests, blasting the antisemitism on display at many of those demonstrations.... His selection would be another push against the left wing of the Democratic Party that has taken a strong position against America’s ally.

... and also for reasons that don't seem at all relevant to this election:

Mr. Shapiro believes in school choice, which runs counter to one of the Democrats’ biggest support groups — the teachers unions (though he ultimately vetoed a school voucher bill he had initially supported). Randi Weingarten, the president of the American Federation of Teachers, is a fixture of the Democratic establishment, but her positions are unpopular with many other Americans — including those who believe that the Covid school shutdowns were dragged out unnecessarily.

Generally, Penn believes Shapiro is a good choice because liberals are wary of him:

Mr. Shapiro, who is unpopular with many progressives over energy policy, school choice and other issues, would send a signal that Ms. Harris is not captive to the left.... He would provide balance to the ticket and underscore that there is a place for moderates in today’s Democratic Party.

(Penn, of course, sees Shapiro's support for fracking as a huge plus.)

It's not clear that Shapiro is noticeably more moderate than, say, Andy Beshear or Mark Kelly on most issues -- but he's being marketed as the anti-liberal, anti-progressive candidate. Which means that many voters in Harris's base will feel angry and insulted if Harris picks him, while a choice other than Shapiro will now be regarded as a sign that Harris yielded to "the woke mob."

Unfortunately, Harris is now at the mercy of Democratic and Democratic-adjacent figures who have ensured that her VP pick will be divisive. I wish it hadn't come to this.