ARE BIDEN'S POLL NUMBERS IMPERVIOUS TO BAD NEWS, LIKE TRUMP'S?

For months, I've been arguing that bad news for Donald Trump -- civil judgments against him, a felony conviction -- might not have an impact on the presidential race. I haven't been sure why that would be the case. Is it because Trump's trials haven't been televised? Is it because he hasn't been tried on the most serious charges against him? Is it because of pro-Trump media bias? Or is it because swing voters already think Trump is a criminal, and factored that into their candidate choice long ago? Some have decided it's a dealbreaker, but some clearly haven't. Whatever the reason, nothing that happened to Trump in court over the past year seems to have changed the race.

I'm starting to believe that Joe Biden's age is having the same impact -- or lack of impact -- on swing voters' candidate choices:

The race for the presidency remains statistically tied despite President Biden’s dismal debate performance two weeks ago, a new national NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds.

Biden actually gained a point since last month’s survey, which was taken before the debate. In this poll, he leads Trump 50% to 48% in a head-to-head matchup. But Biden slips when third-party options are introduced, with Trump holding the slightest advantage with 43% to 42%.

Those numbers, though, do not represent statistically significant differences, as the margin of error in the survey is +/- 3.1 percentage points, meaning results could be 3 points higher or lower.

Last week we had Biden gaining slightly in a Bloomberg/Morning Consult tracking poll of battleground states. This week, an Emerson College poll had Biden and Trump at 50% each in a head-to-head matchup when leaners were asked to make a choice. It seems as if swing voters either aren't paying attention to Biden's public appearances or haven't seen Biden do anything in recent weeks that surprises them.

FiveThirtyEight's polling average has barely moved since the debate:

The stagnancy of the race isn't great -- Biden was expected to win the 2020 popular vote by 7 points in 2020; then he won by only 4 points and barely scored a victory in the Electoral College. I've been arguing that he needs a big poll lead in order to win the Electoral College this year. (This year, he might need much more decisive victories in swing states, because Trumpified election officials could refuse to certify results that favor him.)

But Biden's argument is that pollsters have underestimated Democrats in post-Dobbs elections, that the Democratic base now consists of more reliable voters than the Republican base, and that opponents of right-wing extremism have recently beaten the polls in countries such as France and Iran.

I'm not sure he's right -- but I'm also not sure any other candidate would improve on his numbers. I think an alternate candidate would have room to grow, but would also be subject to fresh-sounding attacks that might penetrate the consciousness of swing voters.

There's no widely loved candidate waiting in the wings. Harris could spend Biden's accumulated money and might now be receiving a renewed amount of goodwill. Other candidates might please wealthy donors and well-connected podcasters more than the rank-and-file. Advocates of an open process think it will feel democratic and inclusive and will inspire voters, but ordinary primaries often leave many voters disgruntled. I don't think a repeat of the punishing 2016 primaries is inevitable, but that year is a reminder that voters don't always emerge from primaries agreeing that the process was inspiring and fair.

I say coalesce around either Biden or Harris and move on. I've been pessimistic about Biden's chances for months, but I don't think he's any less likely to win than he was before June 27.