HAS NO LABELS FRIENDZONED JOE MANCHIN?

Here's a story from May telling us that Joe Manchin would really, really like to run for president. Here's a story from November saying the same thing. And here's a CNN story published yesterday:

Sen. Joe Manchin says he “absolutely” can see himself as president.

Privately, the West Virginia Democrat has told people that a Joe Biden health scare or a Donald Trump conviction could give him an opening to run as an independent this year.

In public, during stops in states such as New Hampshire, South Carolina and Georgia, Manchin says he believes there’s a role for him as a national icon in the “fiscally responsible and socially compassionate” middle, comparable with the role Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders plays for the progressive left.

If Manchin runs, he would want to do so using state ballot lines being secured by No Labels....

No Labels needs a candidate. Manchin needs a ballot line. Match made in heaven (or hell), right? But while you may be tempted to say, "Get a room!," the CNN story suggests that Manchin is frustrated, as if No Labels is just not that into him.

In private conversations about his potential run, Manchin now speaks of No Labels – for which he was a founding co-chair in 2011 – in belittling terms as just “a ballot access organization.” Asked whether he would include any staff or other material from No Labels if he launches a campaign, Manchin demurred.

It's easy to believe that No Labels is a sleazy organization that's trying to get Donald Trump elected and wants to hoover up billionaire cash in order to make that happen. But what if No Labels is somewhat sincere? What if CEO Nancy Jacobson and her husband, pollster Mark Penn (who insists he's not directly involved in No Labels, though the group uses his polling), are really high on their own supply and sincerely believe that they can get their own candidate elected president in 2024?

I say this only because they've clearly friendzoned Manchin -- for months he made clear that he wanted to be the No Labels candidate, but No Labels insists it wants a Republican at the top of the ticket because a Democrat would throw the election to Trump. As Third Way, the rival centrist organization, told us in the fall:

They Intend to Pick a Republican

No Labels is telling people that’s their intention. The NY Times reported that CEO Nancy Jacobson “has told potential donors and allies that the No Labels candidate will be a moderate Republican, according to three people familiar with the conversations.”

Their data makes it obvious. No Labels is telegraphing this decision with their chart, which shows Trump rolls to victory in the battlegrounds with a third-party ticket helmed by a Democrat.

That's this chart:

If they really want Trump to win, their own numbers suggest that they should run Manchin. But they don't seem interested.

Or maybe No Labels is a huge clusterfuck and won't nominate anyone. The CNN story suggests that the group is in shambles.

Larry Hogan, the Republican former governor of Maryland, quit the No Labels board last month over frustration that power and information were being hoarded by group leadership – and not to, as reported elsewhere, clear the way for a presidential run of his own.

“It’s been far less organized than he expected it to be” and “he doesn’t see a plan coming together,” a person familiar with Hogan’s thinking told CNN. “You don’t know where this train is going, and you’re signing up for something you didn’t necessarily sign up for.”

... Plans for a convention in Dallas have collapsed. Talk of a virtual convention remains ambiguous. Who would be picked as delegates to that convention is a mystery. Who would pick those delegates hasn’t been decided. The approximately dozen prospective candidates – including elected officials and business leaders – who will be presented as options are being kept secret, with the full list unknown even to some of the leaders. What information No Labels would use to inform its decision is up in the air. How decisions would be made to ensure candidates won’t be spoilers if they are put on a ticket hasn’t been figured out. Who would decide whether to potentially take the ballot lines back from a ticket, as the group says it will technically be able to do through the summer, is unclear.

I've been worried about No Labels -- I think any No Labels candidate would hurt Biden more than Trump -- but it seems increasingly likely that Jacobson and Penn had delusions of grandeur, or that this was a scam to separate billionaires from their money and no more than that. (Two donors have recently sued because, they say, their money is being used in ways they weren't anticipating.) I thought No Labels would at least run someone to keep the cash flowing. Now I suspect it won't happen.

So maybe this is one less thing to worry about. I hope that's the case.