Monday, January 16, 2023

IN THE 2024 REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES, THE "MODERATE" LANE MIGHT HAVE MORE CANDIDATES THAN VOTERS

For the love of God, make it stop.
Former Republican Rep. Will Hurd of Texas later this month will visit New Hampshire, the state that holds the first presidential primary in the Republican Party’s nominating calendar.

The trip by Hurd, who served three-terms in Congress before deciding against running for re-election in 2020, will spark speculation that the one-time clandestine officer in the CIA is mulling a bid for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination.

Republican sources told Fox News on Friday that Hurd will address hundreds of party leaders, elected officials, and activists attending the New Hampshire GOP’s annual meeting, which this year will be held on Saturday Jan. 28 in Salem, New Hampshire.

"This is a huge inflection point for the Republican Party as to whether or not we can beat Joe Biden in 2024. It's going to take a fighter with common sense who has already won tough races. Will Hurd has done that and helped others do it," a Republican close to Hurd’s political orbit told Fox News.
So I guess Hurd believes that the likely candidacies of Larry Hogan, Chris Sununu, and the semi-moderate Asa Hutchinson, not to mention the extremely right-wing but Donald Trump-hating John Bolton, don't offer enough choice for the tiny sliver of the GOP electorate that rejects the politics of Trump, Ron DeSantis, and the rest of the current Republican mainstream. Hurd, best known nationally for a road trip he once took with Beto O'Rourke when the both in the House of Representatives -- yeah, that's really going to sit well with GOP primary voters -- has been talking about a possible 2024 run since 2019, even if no civilian seems interested.

Hurd published a book last year called American Reboot. Try to imagine him selling the message of that book to Republican primary voters:
It’s a clarion call for a major political pivot by the Republican Party and the extreme left in the Democratic Party, with both needing to commit to a “return to normal.” For Hurd, that means abandoning the divisive social and political issues paralyzing the national and state political conversation, such as criminalizing immigrants on the right and calls to “defund the police” on the left....

Issues that have dominated the political agenda of Republican elected leaders in Texas and other red states in recent years — passing voter suppression legislation, blocking legal abortion, demonizing immigrants and refugees, placing politics in front of sensible public health practices in the COVID-19 pandemic, targeting pro-LGBTQ initiatives and supporting former President Donald Trump’s manufactured claims of a stolen presidential election — have served to further divide the nation and distract from more urgent realities at home and abroad....

Hurd’s advice to political extremists in his own party is summed up in an eight-page chapter in his book provocatively titled “Don’t be an Asshole, Racist, Misogynist, or Homophobe.”
But Will, that would take all the fun out of being a Republican.

It's already clear that Donald Trump's odds of being the 2024 nominee improve the more candidates get in the race -- if the party wants to beat Trump, it would be better off clearing the field for one Trump opponent. Similarly, the tiny anti-extremism wing of the party would benefit from settling on one candidate: Hurd, Hogan, Sununu, et al. are all unlikely to win, but they won't even have a chance to make the point they want to make -- that there's a bloc of voters in the GOP who reject Fox/Trump/DeSantis smashmouth politics -- if all of them are spliting that anti-extremist vote and none of them can crack 1% or 2% in any contest.

*****

Meanwhile, in the real GOP, the Daily Beast reports that Trump is outsourcing his anti-DeSantis campaign:
Donald Trump has tried to restrain himself from going after his top GOP rival, but the former president’s allies are already mounting an offensive—with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem now leading the charge....

Earlier this month, Noem’s press secretary, Ian Fury, took a shot at DeSantis seemingly from out of nowhere. Fury sent a follow-up email to the National Review for an article ostensibly about “the transgender lobby’s outsized influence in South Dakota.” Fury went on a tirade—against DeSantis.

“Governor Noem was the only Governor in America on national television defending the Dobbs decision,” Fury said.... “Where was Governor DeSantis? Hiding behind a 15-week ban. Does he believe that 14-week-old babies don’t have a right to live?”

... According to three GOP sources with behind-the-scenes knowledge of the quarrel, Noem has Trump’s blessing to take some shots across the DeSantis bow. And Noem’s efforts haven’t been going unnoticed as Trump continues filling out his VP shortlist.
Here's a scenario I find extremely plausible: Noem agrees to attack DeSantis on Trump's behalf, in the hope that Trump will reward her by picking her as his running mate. Trump takes full advantage of her attacks ... and then puts somebody else on the ticket.

It's Trump. Would that surprise you? It wouldn't surprise me.

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