THE PALOOKA WHO THINKS HE CAN CHALLENGE TRUMP

In 2024, I don't believe there'll be a serious presidential primary contest in the Republican Party. Donald Trump will announce his candidacy sometime in 2023 and every A-list Republican will either drop out or decline to join the race. The sad, self-deluded losers who'll stay in the race -- the Bill Welds and Joe Walshes of 2024 -- will be people like this guy:

Is Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan [of Georgia] running for president? That’s what Manchester’s WMUR-TV wanted to know last night when Duncan visited New Hampshire’s famous Institute of Politics at St. Anselm College.

St. Anselm is a must-do stop for any presidential hopeful in the first-in-the-nation primary state, so a visit there inevitably leads to the question: Are you considering a run for the White House?

Duncan was in New Hampshire selling “GOP 2.0″-- the idea behind both his book and his vision for a possible post-Trump version of the Republican Party....

WMUR’s takeaway: “Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan could end up in the mix of contenders for president in 2024.”

Duncan voted and campaigned for Trump in 2020 but subsequently distanced himself during Trump's campaign to overturn the election results. Knowing that this made him a dead man walking in the Georgia GOP, Duncan decided not to run for reelection. He wrote GOP 2.0 instead, which is described by the publisher as follows:

GOP 2.0 is both a book and a movement that unites people around a common view of civility and freedom. GOP 2.0 puts policy over politics. It aspires to make Americans great. It’s about Geoff Duncan’s “P.E.T. Project,” reviving the party with conservative Policies, genuine Empathy, and a respectful Tone.

... GOP 2.0 is Geoff Duncan’s vision, forged by his unexpected struggle for the party’s future. In his words, “GOP 2.0 is not a new party – it’s a better direction for our Republican Party.” In this refreshing and reinvigorating new book, a leader who has been through the fire lays out a better way forward, one that lifts up reasoned ideas, expands the party, and positions the GOP to win back the White House in 2024.

The book hasn't come close to a bestseller list -- its current Amazon ranking is #58,557 -- but there he is in New Hampshire, hinting that he might run for president and persuading CNN's Chris Cillizza that he's serious:

All of this activity by Duncan -- with the New Hampshire trip the most telling clue -- suggests he wants to run for the Republican presidential nomination in his own right in 2024.

Asked about that question directly by WMUR, Duncan answered this way:

"I'm focused on healing and rebuilding the party right now. If you looked at my to-do list every day of what I have to do in all 50 states and the people I've got to talk to, I'm certainly consumed with trying to heal and rebuild the party, and we're going to be in a process of trying to figure out who's the best leader."

So, yes, he wants to run.

The public is indifferent, but a bit of media attention might persuade Duncan to run -- and he'll be shellacked, assuming Trump and his allies in state Republican parties allow primaries at all.

If there's a contest at all, I predict that Trump will be challenged only by fifth-raters like Duncan. Trump will glide to the nomination.