Steve Benen is puzzled by the results of a new CBS poll. I'm not. Steve writes:
I'm not sure if I fully believe the new CBS News poll, but if it's accurate, it looks like a new top tier is coming together in the race for the Republican nomination.
... with 18 percent, Herman Cain is in the top spot, followed by Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich with 15% each. Support for both Cain and Romney has declined since late last month, and Gingrich is the only one of the top three whose support is steadily -- if slowly -- on the upswing.So, let me get this straight. Seven weeks before the Iowa caucuses, the presumptive Republican nominee's national support has dwindled to 15%? He's tied with a disgraced former House Speaker who barely campaigns and whose only joy in life is upbraiding debate moderators?
Seriously?
Sure. Why not? Romney has been doing OK for a while, but as the Fox-addled, talk-radio-programmed voters get closer to the wedding day, they're thinking: Am I really going to marry this guy?
And I wonder whether the Cain scandal is actually hurting Romney. Until now, a certain percentage of not-fully-crazy-but-still-very-conservative voters were apparently thinking that, yeah, Romney's not perfect, but he's mostly saying the right things -- he's on our side. And now, with the sense that the political establishment is trying to destroy Herman Cain, Romney, to some Republicans, looks like part of the problem. Or an embodiment of the problem.
And Gingrich is gaining because his particular style of bunkum seems ideally suited to the GOP's endless series of debates. Plus, he's from the GOP old guard -- which probably helps him peel off some not-fully-crazy voters from Romney -- but he's also a tea-esque bomb-thrower, which helps him pick up the voters Cain is losing.
So yeah -- why not Gingrich?
The Daily Caller notes that a new McClatchy-Marist poll (PDF) has Romney at 23%, Gingrich at 19%, and Cain at 17%.
Is it possible that the crazies (Erickson et al.) are going to do a 180, root for Cain to drop out, and throw their support behind Newt?
It almost seems possible...and yet I can't believe Imaginary Sky Fairy could possibly like me enough to make Newt the nominee.
ReplyDeleteI can see the real knuckle-dragging Conservatives in Iowa and SC going for Newt.
ReplyDeleteIf Cain continues to get harassed by sexual harassment charges, I can see his support going from 'Our Negro,' to a guy who would look perfectly at home as a Deep South politician or Police Chief 50 years ago talking about why he uses fire hoses and dogs on the 'Nigrah's' to remind them of their place.
The money boys will continue to pour money into Mitt - not because they love him, but because they don't see a choice.
Does it occur to anyone that the Conservative money boys aren't THAT unhappy with Obama, and that's why they didn't move Heaven and Earth to find someone besides Mitt and the 7 Deadly Sins to run against him?
And that they may want to better position themselves for 2016?
Mitt's good enough for them this go-'round. They may be keeping their powder dry on the Presidential front until 2016, when they can wage a full-on Conservative onslaught on the nation? In the meantime, they'll spend a ton of money working on Senate and House seats, because if they can get a Republican Senate and House, they'll tie Obama up vetoing things left and right - or far right and crazy right. And it'll give them 2 to 4 more years to firm up voter suppression laws on a national scale - with the support of the Supreme Court.
And if Mitt wins in 2012 - hey, it's gravy! The Senate and House are more important.
But if not, they're looking to groom two people so they can control the Executive branch for at least 8, but hopefully 12 to 16 years. I keep coming back to it, but Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio or Paul Ryan may be what they're aiming at. Or, a ticket similar to that.
2008 was crucial. 2012 is no less critical. Obama may be lucky in the opponents running against him, but we need to remember that we'll need to spend just as much time keeping, or increasing, the number of Democrats in both Houses of Congress. Because if the Republicans get full control, we as a nation, will be, for all practical purposes done - we will continue our spiral into a Banana Republic unimpeded.
Interesting times, indeed...