By now you've probably heard this about the CBS and McClatchy GOP polls:
Cain's dip seems to be primarily the result of defections from female supporters. In the last CBS poll, which was released Oct. 25, he actually enjoyed more support from women (28 percent) than from men (22 percent) and led the GOP pack with 25 percent. But now, after more than a week of intense news coverage of sexual harassment allegations, only 15 percent of female GOP voters say Cain is their top choice, while 21 percent of men are still with him.
But I don't know how much that'll hurt Cain in Iowa -- see this analysis of 2008 Iowa caucus demographics:
I can't make the numbers pop up in a screen capture on this computer, but the turnout was 56% male, 44% female. And we're told that's typical for Iowa.
So if women are fleeing Cain, and Iowa Republicans are like the Republicans in the country as a whole, Cain may not be troubled much (or at least Romney may not benefit). And nationally at least, according to the CBS poll (PDF), Romney is now third among men, and a distant third among conservatives and teabaggers (Iowa Republican caucus-goers are reputed to be very, very conservative):
I know all this overlooks issues of organization, local sentiment, et cetera. I'm just saying that the groups nationwide that are sticking with Cain (or switching to Gingrich) are the groups that seem to dominate in Iowa. So the expected coronation may not take place on time.
Yeah, but it's awhile until then.
ReplyDeleteAnd, while I don't expect much of a rebound for Cain, if any, I think the amount of money spent on Romney by the powers-that-be will take him to the top there.
But Iowa and South Carolina are states where I can see that grifter Newt doing well, especially now that Bachmann and Perry look like they're going down in flames.
See, I keep thinking that the harassment story will fade by Thanksgiving, and then Cain really might regain support slowly through December -- unless Rove unleashes another attack (which seems almost inevitable).
ReplyDeleteWhen the dust settles, I think that Iowa will be seen as a good predictor of who will get a job at Fox News.
ReplyDeleteI would be very surprised if Romney did any worse in Iowa than he did in 2008, with four more years of experience and improved name recognition, and without McCain to draw off votes. And to overlook "issues of organization, local sentiment, et cetera" with regard to the Iowa Caucuses is similar to overlooking gasoline with regard to cars. These are precinct-level meetings. If you aren't there at a specific date and time, you don't get to vote. It makes a difference if you have the funds, organization, and phone bank to get your people to the caucus meeting on time. Cain currently has strong polling among people who say that they're definitely going to go, but these people have been moving their vote around from Bachmann to Perry to Cain. Just because they're with Cain right now doesn't mean that they're staying with him.