Wednesday, April 01, 2009

ZOGBY: WHY I'M RIGHT AND EVERY OTHER POLLSTER IS WRONG

A little more than a week ago, John Zogby announced a poll showing that President Obama's job approval rating had slipped below 50%. Right-wing bloggers, predictably, danced in the streets.

Oh, sure, every other pollster is getting very different results, but we only think that's a problem for Zogby. In a story published yesterday at TownHall, Zogby explained to Donald Lambro why he's right:

But if Gallup scores Obama's job performance at 60 percent or better, why are Zogby's numbers so much lower?

Zogby told me that he uses a scale that ranges from excellent to good on the positive side versus fair to poor on the negative. "If you look at the fair rating for Obama, that was 12 percent. If you split that, because some people think fair is approve, then you're up in the mid-50s," he said.

In Zogby's differential rating scale, "fair is a negative because it doesn't get you anywhere. Presidents don't run on the basis of saying reelect me, I did a fair job," he told me.

Other polls put their fair responses into their favorable percentage, and thus produce a larger approval number for the president in their surveys.


Of course! That makes sense!

Except that, um, it doesn't. Other pollsters don't "put their fair responses into their favorable percentage" because other pollsters don't use the word "fair" at all.

Here are the exact questions leading to the much more positive results in polls from other major pollsters:

* ABC News/Washington Post poll, March 26-29, 2009: "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?" (66% approve, 29% disapprove)

* CBS News poll, March 20-22, 2009: "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?" (64% approve, 20% disapprove)

* CNN/Opinion Research poll, March 12-15, 2009: "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?" (64% approve, 34% disapprove)

*FOX News/Opinion Dynamics poll, March 3-4, 2009: "Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?" (63% appove, 26% disapprove)

* NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, Feb. 26-March 1, 2009: "In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job that Barack Obama is doing as president?" (60% approve, 26% disapprove)

* Newsweek poll, March 4-5, 2009: "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?" (58% approve, 26% disapprove)

* National Public Radio poll, March 10-12, 14, 2009: "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?" (59% approve, 35% disapprove)

* USA Today/Gallup poll, March 27-29, 2009: "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?" (64% approve, 30% disapprove)

A few pollsters -- AP/GfK, Cook Political Report, Ipsos/McClatchy, Pew -- force a choice when respondents are hesitant. Pew, for instance, does the question this way:

"Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?" If "depends": "Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?"

Pew's numbers: 59% approve, 26% disapprove. The others' results range from 57% to 67% approval.

Any other explanations, Z?

No comments: