Monday, October 17, 2022

THE DEMOCRACY CRISIS MIGHT ARRIVE NEXT MONTH, AS WE SHOULD HAVE FORESEEN

I warned you six months ago:
What happens if election truthers lose in ... purple states -- Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin?

I think there'll be demands for legislative intervention in any purple state where Democrats manage a statewide victory. There could be deomnstrations and violence. We could be looking at January 6-style insurrections all over the country, if the expected GOP wave doesn't happen.

When the media talks about threats to democracy, it focuses only on presidential elections. But democracy happens in the states, too. And that's where it might break down this year.
And now this is news:
Arizona Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake repeatedly declined to say Sunday whether she would accept the results of the election if she loses.

In an interview on CNN’s “State of the Union,” Lake dodged when she was asked multiple times whether she would accept the results if she loses.

.. She ... said twice, "I’m going to win the election, and I will accept that result" ...
And now it's suddenly dawned on pundits such as New York magazine's Ed Kilgore that democracy is in danger this year, not jsut in 2024.
The Washington Post calculates that over half the GOP candidates for the House, Senate, and major statewide officers are 2020 election deniers. This phenomenon has unsurprisingly led to concerns about the 2024 presidential election....

But there’s a more immediate problem this unholy host of fabulists might cause: Isn’t it likely some of them will deny their own elections if they lose?
Well, duh. Of course they will.

We're especially at risk if optimistic Democratic advisers such as Tom Bonier and Simon Rosenberg are right about a surge in Roe-driven voting that isn't being picked up by pollsters' assessments of who will be a "likely voter." As I said last month, Republicans are expected to exceed their polling numbers in every election cycle -- even the "liberal media" thinks polls have a Democratic bias -- but if the polls have underestimated Democratic turnout this year and the Dems win a lot of the close contests, heads will explode. Republicans will absolutely cry "Fraud!" and claim victory.

Of course, it's quite possible that high gas prices and ooga-booga messaging from the GOP about immigration and crime will result in GOP victories in the majority of the close contests. But we don't know, so we shouldn't be surprised if Republicans who lose close races refuse to concede and if Republican-led states refuse to certify many Democratic victories. We should be preparing for a constitutional crisis in the next month, not just in the next presidential cycle.

Sunday, October 16, 2022

COULD KATIE HOBBS HAVE PULLED A HERSCHEL WALKER?

Kari Lake, the Republican candidate for governor of Arizona, is having a moment, with long profiles in The Atlantic and The Washington Post and a piece at Axios headlined "Dems Fear Kari Lake Could Be Arizona's Governor—and a Major MAGA Star." According to FiveThirtyEight, Democrat Katie Hobbs once had a 7-point lead in the race, but Lake has wiped it out and now leads, although by less than a point. Lake has accomplished this with always-on-offense demagoguery delivered with a professionalism developed over a decades-long career in local TV news, as the Post profile notes:
... Kari Lake does not say “um.” Kari Lake’s words are crisp and clean and, when needed, they can be warm or they can be harsh. The more confrontational you are, the more composed Kari Lake will become. People have said Kari Lake is “Donald Trump in heels,” but really, she is Donald Trump with media training and polish.
Lake is nasty and looks for the quick kill. When the Post reporter tries to interview her, she realizes she's stepped into an ambush.
“Is this paper owned by — who is it owned by?” she asks.

Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon, owns The Washington Post.

“Oh, I thought so,” she says, her voice turning hard.

“You don’t give anybody fair coverage, unfortunately.”

She walks away, and a gaggle of Lake staffers are waiting, laughing.
We're told she's always like this, and we're led to assume that her punches always land.
... a CNN reporter tries to ask for an interview: “I’ll do an interview,” Lake says, “as long as it airs on CNN+. Does that still exist? I didn’t think so.” ... Dennis Welch, political editor for Phoenix’s 3TV and CBS 5, tries to question Lake, only to have Lake question the questioner: “I don’t even know: Do you guys have any viewers left?” The interactions are packaged into videos, content for her campaign to release and weaponize on social media: “Kari Lake Exposes Bias” ... “Kari Lake Goes Mega Viral After Exposing Fake News” ... “Watch Kari Lake Put The AZ Republic In Its Place.”
To me she seems obnoxious. But I know this can work. It worked for Trump. It worked for Chris Christie in his first term as governor.

So I understand why Hobbs has refused to debate Lake. Hobbs, who's currently Arizona's secretary of state, doesn't have Lake's media skills.
At the Arizona Capitol, reporters would often ask [Hobbs] to repeat her answers because sentences would trail off, making her meaning difficult to decipher, one reporter said.... She has ... refused to share a stage with Lake, producing a weeks-long saga over debate rules and an uncomfortable running contrast.... “I have no desire to be a part of the spectacle that she’s looking to create,” Hobbs said on CBS’s “Face the Nation” ...
But I'm reading this Post profile a couple of days after a debate between Herschel Walker, a mushmouthed ex-football player with a cargo hold's worth of personal baggage, and Raphael Warnock, a minister who regularly delivers sermons at what used to be Martin Luther King's church. Walker is currently enmeshed in scandal. Walker -- to put it mildly -- lacks Warnock's skills as a public speaker. And yet this is what I'm reading about that debate:
If the Friday showdown was a make-or-break moment for Walker, as some analysts predicted it would be, the Republican didn’t snap. And to some of his supporters, the hourlong debate forged him into a stronger contender....

Walker came out punchy and aggressive, interjecting frequently as he tried to knock Warnock off message....

The Republican benefited from low expectations, mostly because of a history of gaffes and meandering remarks on the campaign trail. He also worked to downplay his chances against Warnock....
Couldn't Hobbs have tried something like that? Couldn't she have spent weeks lowering expectations, telling Arizonans that Lake's years as a slick TV professional gave her a natural debate advantage? Isn't that Politics 101?

Maybe this works for a jockish man and doesn't work for a woman. Maybe it works only if you're a Republican. But couldn't she have tried? (In Pennsylvania, John Fetterman has certainly made the case that he'll be at a disadvantage against a smooth-talking TV star.)

When I first wrote about this, on September 12, Hobbs had a small but persistent lead in the polls. It's gone now. Lake has the momentum. It shouldn't have happened.

Hobbs had the opportunity to try to lower expectations. She could have prepared observers for a shellacking and then surprised everyone by taking the fight to Lake. It worked for Walker. Walker has been an overdog ever since he was Heisman Trophy-winning college football star, but he gee-whizzed and aw-shucked his way to underdog status before debating Warnock. Here was Walker in September:
“I’m this country boy, I’m not that smart. And he’s a preacher, he’s smart man, wear these nice suits, so he is going to show up and embarrass me,” Walker said of Warnock. “And I’m just waiting to show up and I will do my best.”
It could have worked. The Katie Hobbs approach isn't working. And MAGA's next star might get to run a key swing state going into 2024.

Saturday, October 15, 2022

EVIL LIBERAL SUPERVILLAINS WANTED EVERYONE LOCKED DOWN AGAIN! REPEATEDLY!

I don't know why this tweet fills me with despair, but it does:


David is a Ph.D., not a medical doctor. He's an Israeli entrepeneur who works in AI. He's also a COVID denialist.

When David writes this, he knows what his like-minded audience believes: that the entire public health response to COVID was a cynical attempt by evil people to seize power even though they knew what they were doing wasn't protecting public health. Anyone who made vaccines, urged the use of vaccines, advocated or enforced quarantines and lockdowns, and recommended mask-wearing was clearly selling snake oil, according to this view, because the measures didn't flawlessly shut down transmission, disease, and death. There's no possibility of good faith on our side. There's no possibility that we wanted better results and are frustrated because we haven't been able to obtain them. There's no possibility that we didn't want the whole fucking world turned upside down, but the alternative seemed to be allowing the entire planet to become New York City in April 2020.

And now the alarms raised about monkeypox and polio "didn't work." Didn't work in what way? Apparently we were able to fake a COVID crisis and upend everything in 2020, and we'd love to do it again, but we can't -- presumably because too many people are based now, like our friend Dr. Eli. It can't possibly be because we've seen only isolated cases of paralyzing polio. It can't possibly be because monkeypox proved not to be contagious in the way COVID is contagious. It can't possibly be that we raise alarms in the hope of preventing another COVID, or even preventing a lesser health crisis, and the system worked, more or less -- many people in the affected population got vaccinated against monkeypox, while the sexual activity that was spreading the disease was curtailed somewhat because men who have sex with men told one another it was necessary for the community and many men got the message. In the case of polio, there's been some increase in vaccination in populations where vaccine uptake had been low. That's what we wanted. What "didn't work"?

But to the contemporary right, nothing is merely principled disagreement. In the past, political arguments were about conflicting beliefs: Abortion opponents said even a zygote was a human life, while reporoductive-choice advocates argued for women to have the right to personal autonomy. On issues like public health, we're beyond that. The right believes that everything we did to fight COVID was in bad faith. Everything was a comic-supervillain conspiracy to take over the globe -- but somehow, in two recent public health crises, we couldn't pull off the con. (That's because the based army is winning!)

We can't have a democracy -- here or in the rest of the democratic world -- if this is how we're arguing.

Friday, October 14, 2022

EVERYONE IS WRONG

This, from Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels of Politico, seems glib, simplistic, and half-right at most:
Why Trump is the main character of 2022

... Trump still looms over everything in politics.

— He has transformed the Republican Party: A new NYT investigation reveals “that about 70 percent of Republicans running for Congress had questioned the election of President Biden” and “nearly two-thirds are favored to win their races, according to the Cook Political Report.”

— He is seemingly the only subject of top nonfiction books. MAGGIE HABERMAN’s “Confidence Man: The Making of Donald Trump and the Breaking of America” debuted at number one this week on the NYT best seller list. Just a few weeks ago, PETER BAKER and SUSAN GLASSER’s “The Divider: Trump in the White House, 2017-2021” debuted at number two. And yet another blockbuster is out on Tuesday: “Unchecked: The Untold Story Behind Congress's Botched Impeachments of Donald Trump,” by our own RACHAEL BADE and The Washington Post’s KAROUN DEMIRJIAN.

— And Trump once again this week dominates all political coverage. Yesterday, he was subpoenaed, his appeal to the Supreme Court in the Mar-a-Lago documents case was rejected, his former aides were spotted after testifying before a grand jury in the criminal investigation of Jan. 6, his name was prominently featured in text messages read aloud at the Oath Keepers trial, and his decision to form a new company was criticized by the NY attorney general who is suing him.
Trump is a big deal. He's a bigger deal than a lot of Very Smart People thought he'd be right now. His election denial is a big deal.

But election denialism has taken on a life of its own. The message from most Republican candidates isn't merely that the 2020 election was stolen -- it's that every election won by Democrats is stolen, and that there's Democratic fraud even in elections Republicans win. Beyond that, Republican candidates are talking about inflation, border crossers, trans people, crime in "Democrat cities," tech "censorship" ... The truth is that the main character of 2022 is the main character of most American elections in this century: Rupert Murdoch. Republican candidates are talking about what his employees talk about. And Democrats are defending themselves against Fox attacks.

Or, if you believe that the election will be won by waves of women angry about the Dobbs decision, many of them newly registered to vote, then maybe the central figure of the 2022 election is Samuel Alito, or Leonard Leo.

I don't agree with the Politico piece, but this critique of it, by National Review's Jim Geraghty, is over-the-top spittle-flecked rage:
... it is awfully convenient for the Democratic Party that publications such as Politico have decided that “Trump is the main character of 2022,” and not, say, the current president of the United States, or House speaker Nancy Pelosi, or Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer — you know, the people who have actually been running the government and shaping U.S. domestic and foreign policy for the past two years....

I suspect that a lot of mainstream-media reporters either A) really enjoy writing the latest version of “Republicans stink” or B) know their established audience is hungriest for the latest version of “Republicans stink” stories. A lot of people wake up with the attitude of, “I know my side is right; tell me why my side is right today.”

That’s why on any given day, you will see a lot of coverage of Trump, his family members, who’s rising and who’s falling in his inner circle, whatever crazy conspiracy theory Mike Lindell is talking up today, the trial of Alex Jones, and the latest antics of non-Left celebrities such as Elon Musk and Kanye West, with a healthy dose of “You won’t believe what Tucker Carlson just said” mixed in.
Yes, it's a vast left-wing conspiracy to distract voters with stories about ... um, the possible next president of the United States, who also happens to be an all-but-indicted criminal on multiple fronts, as well one of the most popular musicians in America, a tech billionaire who might succeed in buying an extremely popular social-media site, and a nationally famous broadcaster so vile he was just ordered to pay nearly a billion dollars in damages to people he maligned on the air -- all of whom not only are famous, but are attention addicts and highly skilled provocateurs. The media is covering people who are good copy! Must be a liberal plot!

The press is writing about Republicans because Republicans pursue lib-owning as tirelessly as sharks pursue food. Thry try to do something media-friendly and outrageous every day. Joe Biden, by contrast, is the Columbo of politcs -- even when he accomplishes a lot, he does it shambolically.

It's not clear whether any of the mainstream media's coverage choices will decide the election, but they're not a conspiracy.

NEW DIMENSIONS IN "THIS IS HOW YOU GOT TRUMP"

Please tell me that what Politico's John Harris writes here won't become conventional wisdom:
Two years ago, Donald Trump lost the presidency and — it seemed safe to assume — was at last about to lose his hold on national attention.

Soon enough, one supposed, those four bizarre years would come to seem like a hallucination — blurry and unreal....

This week, as the Jan. 6 special committee holds its hearing before the midterm elections, is a good moment to take stock of Trump’s astonishing achievement since November 2020. In historical terms, Trump is a larger figure than ever....

Here is the great paradox of the Jan. 6 panel. Its inquiry has systematically dismantled Trump’s deceptions and denialism surrounding the 2020 election. At the same time, it has helped build Trump into something much larger than he appeared two years ago. He is a political leader too serious to forget.

... the Jan. 6 committee has assured that he still matters now, and will be argued about for a long time to come.
Will other pundits seize on this argument -- that Trump is still a force in American politics because the January 6 committee kept him in the spotlight and made him seem consequential? That if it weren't for the committee, he would have faded into obscurity?

Harris says the committee showed us a Trump who's more than a laughingstock.
For seven years, since Trump first vaulted into serious presidential contention in 2015, there has been a tension in how his opponents view him: buffoon or tyrant?

Is he an adolescent at large who craves publicity and applause more than genuine power, and spends hours a day watching cable TV and spouting words that he doesn’t actually believe? Or is he someone who brings conscious method to his demagoguery, and is willing to shred any political or constitutional constraint that gets in his way?

...What the Jan. 6 panel accomplished was to assemble a vast array of evidence for the second interpretation. It made irrefutably clear how purposeful his effort was to sow doubt about the election, to try to enlist the Justice Department and other arms of the government to pursue his fraudulent claims of fraud, and illuminated how he encouraged mayhem on Jan. 6 and initially shrugged his shoulders at the outbreak of violence at the Capitol. This is not the work of a buffoon.
Trump is a buffoon in many ways, but he's always known how to stir up the masses for his own benefit, and he's always done so in an amoral and purposeful way. That's what made him dangerous from the moment he entered politics. The January 6 committee isn't responsible for his success at rabble-rousing and manipulating -- the committee merely revealed how he used his toxic skills in response to the 2020 election. Those skills, and the love and sense of solidarity they engender among Republican voters, made him the front-runner for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination immediately after the 2020 results were tabulated, and would have kept him in that position whether there'd been a January 6 committee or not.

Polling from Harris's employer bears this out. In the most recent Politico/Morning Consult poll, Trump is the 2024 candidate preferred by 52% of Republicans surveyed. Just before the committee hearings started, in early June, the number was 51%. Just after his acquittal in his second impeachment trial, in mid-February 2021, the number was 53%. Just before Thanksgiving 2020, a couple of weeks after the election but well before January 6, the number was 54%. This number never really changes.

January 6 committee members aren't doing this. Trump is doing this. He's kept himself relevant by channeling and encouraging voter rage. Blaming the committee for Trump's continued political relevance is Murc's Law in action.

(Murc's Law: "the widespread assumption that only Democrats have any agency or causal influence over American politics," manifested, for instance, when commentators blame Democrats for the failure of a good bill that every Senate Democrat supports but that doesn't pass because every Republican votes to filibuster it. Harris is clearly saying that when Democrats talk about Trump's ruthlessness scheming, they make Trump more powerful as a schemer.)

Harris says "it seemed safe to assume" that Trump would fade into obscurity after the 2020 election, but some of us never thought he would. It was clear that, on the right, he was the most beloved politcal figure since Ronald Reagan. It was clear that he'd want to run again if he lost, and that he'd have a level of passionate support that would never have been offered to Jimmy Carter after 1980 or George H.W. Bush after 1992. The people responsible for this are Trump, his enablers, and the voters who wallow in his toxicity. Don't blame the people trying to hold him accountable.

Thursday, October 13, 2022

ON JANUARY 6, TRUMP WAS JUST BEING A PLUCKY OPTIMIST!

Christopher Caldwell, a preppy right-wing hack and a contributing opinion writer for The New York Times, tells us in the Times that the January 6 committee has been a failure because it hasn't changed public opinion about the insurrection. He blames the members of the committee for their inability to distinguish the rioters from poor, innocent Donald Trump:
There are two parties to Jan. 6 that the committee has had a hard time keeping distinct: the crowd and Mr. Trump. What the crowd did — to obstruct, through physical intimidation, the counting of votes — was a constitutional trespass of maximum gravity, for which the instigators deserve punishment.

But who were the instigators? The committee has focused on extremist groups such as the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers that played an outsize role in storming the Capitol. But their violence, coordination and resolution were not typical of the broader crowd. No firearms were found on those who invaded the Capitol.
So pay no attention to the bear spray and the heavy objects used to bash police officers' heads.
It was not a coup attempt. And even if you believe it was, Mr. Trump was not leading it.

For someone supposedly bent on overthrowing the government, Mr. Trump did an awful lot of television-watching and surprisingly little seizing of broadcast centers, mobilizing of commando units and issuing of emergency decrees. He certainly demeaned the office, embarrassed the country and behaved irresponsibly on Jan. 6. But to focus on that day distracts from his less dramatic but more consequential misdeeds.
So I guess if a jailed organized crime boss orders a hit on a cop from prison and doesn't also order his people to blow up a few police stations and seize City Hall, then it's not really an assault on government agents. Why even charge the boss with a crime?

Besides, Trump wasn't trying to subvert democracy. He was just being a plucky optimist:
Elections require of candidates a never-say-die optimism that can lead even levelheaded people to make bold claims. After the German national election of 2002, the conservative candidate Edmund Stoiber walked onstage as his prospects of winning dwindled, and announced, with a thrilled smile, “We have won the election.” In 2006, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Mexico City’s head of government, refused to accept the official tally showing him the loser in a national presidential race, camped out in the city’s central square and drew hundreds of thousands of supporters to the city, where they battled the police.
Everybody who loses leads riots -- or at least one guy I just mentioned did! So what's your problem?
Mr. Trump’s loss was razor thin: A shift of fewer than 80,000 votes in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin would have given him the victory. But his loss is different from the near misses to which it is sometimes compared. For one thing, Mr. Trump was an incumbent. While Samuel Tilden in 1876, Richard Nixon in 1960 and Al Gore in 2000 each lost the presidency by a whisker, they weren’t in the Oval Office and suffered no demotion in dignity.
So if you're an incumbent and you lose a close election, I guess you get a special dispensation to subvert the democratic process. (I wonder if Caldwell would say the same thing about Joe Biden if he loses in 2024 and behaves the way Trump did two years ago -- although we know he won't.)

Caldwell isn't an election denialist -- he's really denialism-adjacent. He says the courts were right to rule against every Trump election appeal:
In the judicial context, those judges who ruled against more than 60 Trump-initiated and Trump-linked lawsuits to reopen vote counts and reverse election results did exactly the right thing.
But there's an asterisk:
A courtroom is the wrong place to reward doubts about the legitimacy of elections. Overruling elections from the bench would undermine democracy and provide tomorrow’s lawyers with incentives to undermine it further.
So Trump might have had a point, but courts shouldn't say so? That appears to be what Caldwell is arguing.

In fact, everyone who wants to litigate the 2020 election endlessly should just keep doing so, according to Caldwell, even if they're prominent government officials, and possibly future presidents. The bad guys are the people who are upset about that:
... in a civic context, matters are different. Citizens have a right to examine the matter as freely and doggedly as they wish.

The committee jumbles all these contexts together. [Liz] Cheney recently complained that Ron DeSantis, the Republican governor of Florida, “is, right now, campaigning for election deniers.” She went on: “Either you fundamentally believe in and will support our constitutional structure or you don’t.” But, of course, it is not unconstitutional to question the integrity of an election, and a person who does so is not necessarily an enemy of democracy.
It's not unconstitutional, but it matters if you continue to undermine trust in the electoral system and you're a prominent public official. But to Caldwell, Ron DeSantis's denialism is no more of a concern than denialism on the part of your Fox-watching uncle who occasionally comments at Breitbart as KidRockFan1776.
Certainly there were constitutional crimes that day.
It's really big of Caldwell to admit this.
But the committee members have been too inclined to look at the Republican Party as a nest of subversives, much as certain anti-Communists did the Democrats at some of the colder points in the Cold War.
Nearly every Republican elected official and operative in America sees the Democrats this way right now.
Any reader of Michael Wolff’s book “Landslide,” about the final days of the Trump presidency, will see that his unsuitability is a matter of psychology, not ideology — of character, not politics. He’s George III, not Hitler.
Because it's either/or. You can't be unsuitable in both ways, according to Caldwell -- it's not allowed. Hitler was bad politically, but otherwise he was a totally chill guy.

This is setting up Caldwell's final salvo:
After his defeat in November 2020, Mr. Trump began working the last available pressure point in the system — the Electoral College, as it turned out — to see if he could somehow lawyer and cajole his way to an alternative outcome. That a president would try such a thing required not just effrontery but also a colossal collapse in standards, integrity and public trust. But the requisite collapse had already taken place, by 2016 at the latest.
I know where Caldwell is going with this, though he doesn't come out and say it: Trump happened because you hippie liberals destroyed all cultural norms starting in the sixties. Caldwell's admirers presumably don't need him to spell this out.

Caldwell, by the way, is also a Muslim basher. A New York Times review of his 2009 book Reflections on the Revolution in Europe: Immigration, Islam, and the West summed up the book's message:
Through decades of mass immigration to Europe's hospitable cities and because of a strong disinclination to assimilate, Muslims are changing the face of Europe, perhaps decisively. These Muslim immigrants are not so much enhancing European culture as they are supplanting it. The products of an adversarial culture, these immigrants and their religion, Islam, are "patiently conquering Europe's cities, street by street."
This is indistinguishable from the Great Replacement Theory that Tucker Carlson regularly peddles today. Why does The New York Times employ this man?

Wednesday, October 12, 2022

YOUR RIGHT-WING RELATIVES PROBABLY THINK ALEX JONES DID NOTHING PARTICULARLY TERRIBLE

Here's a reminder of why a jury ordered Alex Jones to pay nearly a billion dollars to parents of children killed in Newtown, Connecticut:
Within hours of the shooting, Jones was telling his audience that it was staged as a pretext for confiscating guns. Within days, he began to suggest that grieving parents were actors. In the years that followed, he repeatedly said the massacre was faked.

The families testified during the trial that the lies spread by Jones led to harassment and threats by conspiracy theorists who have accused them of faking their own children’s deaths. They described feeling unsafe in their own homes and hypervigilant in public. Some of the families moved away from Newtown.

The largest single award of $120 million went to Robbie Parker, whose six-year-old daughter Emilie was killed in the shooting. Jones spent years mocking Parker as an actor....

He was the first parent to speak publicly in the wake of the massacre. Just before Parker made an anguished statement to the media, he gave a brief nervous smile as he saw the assembled journalists. Jones seized on the moment as evidence of the purported hoax, playing the seconds-long clip again and again in the years after the shooting.

Parker described the shame he felt for the harassment faced by the families, believing that he had somehow “brought this on everybody.” Parker’s voice trembled and his body shook as he told the court that he still feels a sense of responsibility, even though logically he knows that it was not his fault.
Sick bastard.

Marjorie Taylor Greene is offended by the jury award, of course ("No matter what you think of Alex Jones all he did was speak words"). Charlie Kirk goes with absurd whataboutism ("If Alex Jones owes a billion dollars for saying mean things on his show, how much should the propagandists at CNN, MSNBC, WaPo, and The New York Times pay to all the Americans they pressured to inject their kids saying it would prevent transmission to grandma?") as well as if-they-did-it-to-Jones-they-can-do-it-to-you ("This is about sending a message: If you upset the Regime, they will destroy you, completely and utterly, forever").

But it's not just right-wing edgelords who are sticking up for Jones -- in all likelihood, it's your right-wing relatives. Or at least that's my conclusion based on a quick scan of the comments at the Daily Wire:
118 million per family, he hurt their feelings that bad? that's a cool 313 million for the legal profession. still think the judicial system exists for the people and not the legal profession?

****

the lawyers for the families are the real crooks here. keep their clients brainwashed bc their payday relies on it

****

The attorney for the plaintiffs in the first trial, who received a lot of funding from George Soros said he wanted to take his platform away from him. He wanted to take away his voice. I think there is more at play here than just the Sandy Hook families. It won't stop with Jones, I have no doubt about that.

****

The progs are out for blood. Apologies mean nothing when your goal is to utterly destroy anyone whose worldview is slightly to right of chairman Mao. They don't accuse to achieve justice and restitution, they accuse to annihilate.

****

How much is owed to Donald Trump for "Russian Collusion" ?
Bush for "blowing up the levies" ?
How much does the Govt owe me for the Covid vax being "safe, and effective"?

****

Our justice system is so incredibly broken. Sorry, I can’t imagine losing a child, but guess what? You don’t get paid for it unless it’s from the party responsible. Saying something on the radio did not cause you $1 billion worth of injury. It didn’t even cause you $10 worth of injury.

****

The global elite have been trying to bury Alex since the day he snuck in and filmed them in Bohemian Grove

****

This kind of show trial is worse than the USSR or third world trials. Notice an FBI agent was one of the victims; they will use this to have a govt. agent sue you for everything you got if you dissent against the tyrant deep state. This should outrage everyone who still believes they are free people in a free country.

****

Thousands of people have died from Covid vax lies. Thousands have been fired from their jobs for refusing the vax. Where are their millions??

****

I think if we’re talking covid lies settlements we’re talking trillions not millions

****

If only perverts and groomers were held as accountable as this.

****

Apparently actual harm doesn't count in our legal system. Only hurt feelings.
This week, Democrats up to and including the president denounced racist remarks made by Democratic legislators in California, and called for those legislators to resign. But Republicans won't denounce a member of the tribe, not even for this level of cruelty. Republicans are irredeemable.

THE FOX KANYE WEST INTERVIEW WAS MEANT TO BE AN ELECTION AD

A round of applause for the anonymous leaker who slipped Vice the unaired footage of Kanye West being anti-Semitic and paranoid in his interview with Tucker Carlson. West had already spoiled the rollout of the interview with anti-Semitic tweets, but the leaked clips directly exposed Fox, which had this news-making footage and suppressed it for political reasons.

Let's remember that Carlson and Fox chose to conduct and air this interview in October of an election year. The point of it was to make West seem like a brave iconoclast, and to suggest that people watching the interviewer, some of whom might not be regular Fox viewers or Republicans, might want to emulate West and challenge the liberal-fascist orthodoxy now.

It's fun to watch this video from Media Matters, which juxtaposes fawning praise for West from Fox hosts with Vice's unaired clips, but pay attention to that fawning praise.


Jason Whitlock, who's Black, says:
I'm going to make an analogy: Kunta Kinte in Roots. They got him out on the tree and they're whipping him, "What's your name?" And they want him to say "Left-wing liberal."
Another Fox host (I'm not sure who it is) says:
Man, we could reach so many more people with this powerful movement that believes in freedom.... If Kanye West believes it, imagine how many more people out there maybe aren't talking about it.
Translation: Don't be afraid to be right-wing, Black viewer. Maybe you've vaguely thought you didn't quite agree with your friends who reject the Republican Party and vote Democratic, but don't listen to them. You can be a Kanye. Vote Republican THIS YEAR.

If even a small percentage of Black voters are persuaded by messages like this, it could be enough to swing a couple of elections in close states or districts. That's why the interview aired in October. But the people at Fox should have known they couldn't keep West's craziness and prejudices contained. So they got what they deserved.

Tuesday, October 11, 2022

LOOK, IT'S THE OLD REPUBLICAN PARTY THAT EVERYONE WANTS BACK, AND IT'S AFTER YOUR MONEY!

We all know who the real enemy is, right? It's Donald Trump -- he's everything that's wrong with politics, the most dangerous man in America, and if only we could put him in prison, or he'd just go away, we could have the old Republican Party back and everything would be fine again!

That's what we're told, isn't it? Well, here's the old Republican Party, which never really went away. Jonathan Chait writes:
The November elections will likely give Republicans control of the House of Representatives as a platform from which to oppose the Democratic-controlled White House. And one thing Republicans will do with this power, in all probability, will be to try to provoke a crisis in order to extort Democrats into accepting spending cuts to Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security.

Bloomberg’s Jack Fitzpatrick interviewed several Republican contenders to lead the House Budget Committee. They all said, with varying levels of specificity, that they plan to instigate a debt-ceiling standoff to force Biden to accept cuts to retirement and health-care programs....

They are already floating their message: The Republicans will insist they won’t raise the debt ceiling unless Biden agrees to Republican-designed spending cuts, and they will blame him for the global meltdown if he refuses their demands....

Last June, the Republican Study Committee, a conservative caucus that includes more than three-quarters of the House Republicans, released a sweeping domestic-budget plan. It received little attention in the mainstream media. The plan, notes Fitzpatrick, would
gradually raise the Medicare age of eligibility to 67 and the Social Security eligibility to 70 before indexing both to life expectancy. It backed withholding payments to those who retired early and had earnings over a certain limit. And it endorsed the consideration of options to reduce payroll taxes that fund Social Security and redirect them to private alternatives. It also urged lawmakers to “phase-in an increase in means testing” for Medicare.
On top of partially cutting Medicare and Social Security and partially privatizing the latter, the RSC plan would implement various regressive tax cuts favored by the GOP.
Are you nostalgic yet? No wall, no Putin worship, no election conspiracy theories -- just pure old-fashioned transfers of wealth from the have-nots and have-lesses to the have-so-damn-much-they-can't-spend-it-alls. Shouldn't you work an extra five years so Elon Musk can set a few more autonomous vehicles on fire and Wall Street can skim a significant percentage of your Social Security money off the top -- and barely be taxed on the windfall?

Yeah, putting plutocratic greed front and center is what we missed about the GOP, isn't it? Donald Trump ruined the party! It used to be awesome!

IF YOU WANT PEOPLE TO HATE JOE BIDEN BECAUSE OF HUNTER'S STRUGGLES, YOU'RE ASKING MANY OF THEM TO HATE THEMSELVES

Desperate to turn Hunter Biden into an issue in the 2022 midterms, right-wing leakers, presuambly in law enforcement, have released a new audio snippet to the Daily Mail, which has published it under this headline:
EXCLUSIVE: 'You gotta get some help.' Listen to Joe Biden's tearful voicemail plea to Hunter revealing he knew his son was having a drug-fueled meltdown at the time he bought a gun - and lied about being a drug abuser on purchase form
I really don't understand what these people think they're accomplishing. From the story:
Joe Biden knew about Hunter's drug-fueled meltdown at the time his son bought a gun and lied about being a drug user on the sworn purchase form, a voicemail from the president to his son reveals.

Biden sounds close to tears in the voicemail left on Hunter's abandoned laptop on October 15 - three days after Hunter bought the gun and lied about being a drug addict - begging him to get help.

'It's Dad. I called to tell you I love you. I love you more than the whole world pal,' Joe said in the October 15 message. 'You gotta get some help. I know you don't know what to do, I don't either.'
Listen to this. It's heartbreaking:




It certainly looks as if Hunter Biden lied on a firearm transaction record when he said he wasn't using illegal drugs. If he's indicted on that charge, I won't be surprised. And the story says, unsurprisingly, that he wasn't careful with the gun -- he left it in an unlocked car and his then-girlfriend tossed it in a public trash can, where it was found by a homeless man.

But that's Hunter Biden. It's not Joe Biden. Joe Biden is the heartsick father, and I think anyone with an ounce of humanity -- which excludes most Republicans -- can relate to how he feels here.

What Republicans don't understand is that millions of Americans have had substance-abuse problems or have tried to help friends or relatives who have them. In order to hate Joe Biden because he couldn't snap his fingers and instantly get his son clean, you have to hate yourself, if you've been in this position. In order to conclude that anyone with a child like Hunter is a bad person, you have to conclude that you're a bad person if you have a child like Hunter, or that friends and neighbors who have children suffering with substance abuse problems are bad people. Most Americans don't think like that. They know it's hard to help someone like Hunter turn his lfe around.

To Republicans, of course, Hunter Biden is both a drug-damaged screw-up and a sinister master criminal, working hand in glove with his father, an addle-pated dementia patient who's also a slick crime boss. While it's true that Hunter Biden might be guilty of a number of crimes, it's obvious to most people that this is a story of sadness, not evil.

Monday, October 10, 2022

WILL WE REALLY START SHOOTING ONE ANOTHER OVER POLITICS?

I'm reading The Washington Post Magazine's warnings about a possible second Trump presidency. I think most of what we're told to prepare ourselves for -- the politicization of most agencies of the federal government, the end of the Western alliance -- are, unfortunately, quite likely if Trump wins. But I'm not sure about predictions of a shooting war between left and right.

Maybe this could happen:
The election of Trump would not necessarily cause the kinds of people who stormed the Capitol to stand down, just because their goal of elevating their leader has been achieved four years later. “There’s a scenario by which [their aggression] accelerates because they’ve won and they’re emboldened and they have a president who, with a wink and a nod, encourages them not to allow ‘cheating’ and disloyalty at lower levels of authority,” [Stanford University's Larry] Diamond says. The already commonplace threats and intimidation of public officials, civic volunteers and civil servants — election workers, teachers, health-care workers, librarians — could spread and strengthen, egged on by Trump, driving more from their jobs to be replaced by MAGA loyalists.
But I'm not sure the average MAGA loyalist wants to engage in violence so much as intimidation based on the threat of violence. Many of these people greatly enjoy threatening to kill or sexually assault their enemies, but far fewer actually do it (which doesn't mean it isn't terrorism). January 6 was MAGA violence, but much of the worst right-wing violence in America is at the hands of people like the Buffalo and Charleston shooters, who don't consider even the Trump GOP to be sufficiently racist or anti-Semitic. Many election workers and schoolteachers and librarians will probably be intimidated into retirement, but threats might be enough. Remember, we didn't have an uptick in actual right-wing violence after the Mar-a-Lago search, even though some might have predicted that. Most of MAGA would probably want a Republican government to do the killing and avenging.

And I really don't see this happening:
Activated rage would not be limited to Trump supporters. A narrow or dubious Trump victory would inspire massive, potentially violent protests on the left. “Then the MAGA, violent, January 6th-style extremists would take that as the signal to rise up,” Diamond says.

“This is not going to be something that’s just done by one side; that’s why the risk of political violence is so severe,” [David] Becker [of the David Becker Center for Election Innovation & Research] says....

[Timothy] Snyder [of Yale University] ... elaborates on what could ensue: “I think there’s a very important miscalculation going on, on the right, which is that ‘if anyone makes a ruckus, it’s going to be us,’” he says. “Folks on the right think that chaos is a button that they push. ... Another assumption that the right makes which is erroneous is that they’re the only ones who have guns.... They may be carrying more weapons than the other side, but there are so many weapons in the United States, and there are plenty of people who are not on the right who have weapons, and there could be many more very quickly.”
But politicized violence on the left is usually absurd and pointless. Occasionally there are riots, which tend to targeted at commercial buildings, not political targets. Anarchists in black masks sometimes smash and burn things, but again, the property damage rarely has much political impact. (Even burning cop cars is an exercise in futility -- police forces inevitably have bloated budgets and can acquire plenty more cars.) Liberals, generally speaking, don't like violence and wouldn't expect it to do us much good in any case. One guy threatened a Supreme Court justice (before turning himself in) around the time of the Dobbs decision, and maybe there was some vandalism, but the rest of us are just crossing our fingers and hoping we can win the House and two additional Senate seats. And if not, we'll just sigh, because we're used to not getting our way from the political system.

I just don't think Americans will fight even a guerrilla-style civil war. I don't see liberals fighting at all -- it's not our style. The other side is likely to let the GOP do the fighting for them -- and if Trump is sending troops into Portland and San Francisco to round up Antifa members and homeless people, MAGA might be perfectly content to stand down.

RIGHT-WING BLACK CELEBRITIES LEARN WHAT GOP POLITICIANS ALREADY KNOW ABOUT TRIBAL IMPUNITY

A couple of hours ago, I spotted this juxtaposition of stories at the news aggregation site Memeorandum:


Late Saturday night, Kanye West posted anti-Semitic comments at Twitter and Instagram, both of which suspended his accounts.


The Washington Examiner column cited by Memeorandum was written by Mike Gonzalez of the Heritage Foundation. It appeared this morning, more than a day after West's outburst -- yet it doesn't mention the anti-Semitic comments. It confines itself to West's defiance of Black Lives Matter, after he wore a "White Lives Matter" shirt during Paris Fashion Week.
With his support for former President Donald Trump, Christianity, and the family and his opposition to the rigid ideological straitjacket being imposed on the creative world, Kanye has become dangerous.

... West appears to have correctly fingered BLM as one reason why society, especially culture, has become so politicized, why the exigencies of critical race theory, and its related diversity, equity, and inclusion mantras, have been pushed down everyone’s throats with such ferocity since BLM came together in 2013 and especially since the 2020 riots.

In an interview with Tucker Carlson, also on Thursday night, West ... called the enforcers of the leftist ideology the "group mob — liberal Nazis."

...anyone challenging BLM on the cultural front must be canceled.
The Times story is about the evangelical right's embrace of Herschel Walker.
It was the morning after the Republican senate candidate’s ex-girlfriend came forward to say he had paid for her to have an abortion, though he supports banning the procedure without exception. Dozens of people gathered in a fluorescent hall of First Baptist Atlanta, a prominent Southern Baptist church. Pastor Anthony George sat on a platform, with Mr. Walker at his right hand.

The pastor recalled God’s protection of King David, the ancient Israelite king, and claimed similar promise for Mr. Walker. The candidate shared a testimony of how Jesus changed his life. The pastor invited people to the front to pray for him.

They surrounded him and extended their hands toward the former football star.

“This is the fight of his life, holy God,” the pastor prayed. “And we call forth your ministering angels to be his defenders.” The people clapped and gave shouts of amen.
We learn, among other things, that Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council hadn't endorsed Walker until now, but on Friday -- after we all learned about the abortion -- he announced his endorsement.

If you're a liberal or moderate Democratic politician in America, you'll get decent coverage from the so-called liberal media some of the time, but the same reporters will turn on you in a heartbeat. (Did any positive stories about President Biden appear in the top "liberal" news outlets between the fall of Afghanistan and the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act?) And if you're a Democrat enmeshed in scandal, it's quite likely that you'll lose the support of your voters as well as previously supportive media outlets -- maybe that wasn't true of Bill Clinton in the previous century, but ask Anthony Weiner, Eliot Spitzer, and Andrew Cuomo if it's true in this century.

However, if you're a Republican in good standing, there's an excellent chance that no one in the right-wing bubble will give you a hard time for, for instance, making bigoted and conspiratorial pronouncements like Marjorie Taylor Greene, or being involved in sexual abuse of teenagers like Jim Jordan. And don't get me started on Donald Trump. If you have the full support of the tribe, no one in the right-wing media will ever say a discouraging word about you.

The Black press writes critical stories about Walker and West. Sports outlets publish negative pieces on Walker; the music press regularly criticizes West. But in the Republican oasis, it's all good: West is a fearless truth-teller, and Walker is a humble, upright man of God.

I guess I can't blame the two of them for wanting to take that deal. Life is so much easier when no one holds you accountable.

Sunday, October 09, 2022

IF HERSCHEL WALKER'S VOTERS STICK WITH HIM, IT'S BECAUSE THEY THINK THE TRIBE IS STILL ON HIS SIDE

It's not just that the Republican Party is sticking with Herschel Walker -- the Republican Party wants the party's voter base to see a show of support:
Sen. Rick Scott, the chair of the Senate GOP's election arm, and Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., will travel to Georgia for a Tuesday event supporting Herschel Walker....

"Today it's Herschel Walker, but tomorrow it's the American people. I'm on Herschel's team — and they picked the wrong Georgian to mess with. I'm proud to stand with Herschel Walker and make sure Georgians know that he will always fight to protect them from the forces trying to destroy Georgia values and Georgia's economy, led by Raphael Warnock," Scott said.

The Walker campaign event is scheduled to take place Tuesday afternoon in Carrollton, Georgia.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee, which Scott chairs, will be making its presence felt in Georgia:
Republicans have shown no signs of backing away from the race, with multiple staffers from the NRSC planning to travel to the state in the coming weeks. Part of a recent cut in NRSC advertising spending in the New Hampshire Senate race, which was announced Friday, is expected to be reallocated to Georgia, according to a person familiar with the plans....
If the Walker campaign is salvageable -- I fear it's very salvageable -- this is how Republicans will salvage it. The point is to make persuadable voters believe that other persuadable voters still think it's perfectly reasonable to vote for Walker. If Republicans can manufacture the perception that Walker continues to have broad-based support, he'll have broad-based support -- maybe not enough to win, but we shouldn't rule that out.

The goal of this rally will be to draw a big crowd. If this works according to plan, right-leaning Georgia voters (and right-leaning donors nationwide) will see the crowds and instinctively believe that Walker is still widely supported. And then fewer of them will abandon him. They'll think the rest of the tribe is sticking with him, so why shouldn't they? (There are reports that Donald Trump might hold a rally for Walker after the scheduled Walker-Warnock debate next Friday, but Scott and Co. presumably want to get ahead of this and rally swing voters who might not like Trump.)

From internal polling and focus groups, the GOP must know that Walker can still win. They don't seem to be doing anything like this for Don Bolduc in New Hampshire or Blake Masters in Arizona, two candidates who are trailing but could conceivably narrow the gap -- in fact, there have been reports of reduced party support for Bolduc and Masters.

So they'll show the tribe that Walker is still very much in contention. And as a result, he probably will be.

Saturday, October 08, 2022

NO, THOSE NEW YORK HOMEMADE-VIDEO SITES AREN'T POPULAR BECAUSE OF POST-LIBERALISM

In The New York Times Magazine, Jody Rosen writes about some popular social media feeds that offer videos and snapshots of unusual, occasionally off-putting goings-on in the city. She notes
the popularity of a recent video that has racked up more than 1.5 million views on Instagram. The eight-second clip shows a cockroach on a New York sidewalk, maneuvering a cigarette butt roughly the size of its own body into a small opening in a manhole cover. It’s an amusing spectacle that echoes the “Pizza Rat” video from 2015, in which a rodent was seen dragging a cheese slice down some subway steps.
I'll spare you both of these, although I'm a New Yorker, so to me they're funny. But this isn't just about vermin videos.
The clip appeared on What Is New York, one of several popular Instagram feeds that specialize in a kind of urban vérité: photos and videos documenting the weirder, seamier side of city living. There are posts that capture people in bizarre costumes (and states of undress), posts that show commuters on wacky jury-rigged vehicles, posts that record deviant recreational pursuits — along with the blasé reactions of passers-by. In one video, ... the camera pans over a pothole that someone has filled to the brim with uneaten bagels.

... Rick McGuire, who runs What Is New York and its sister account Subway Creatures, receives hundreds of submissions each week, gathered by New Yorkers on the prowl for sight gags.
So far, so good. I'm happy to see a little publicity for these two feeds, which I've been following on Twitter. But Rosen wants to make this a story about urban anxiety and malaise.
It may be no accident that such images are proliferating in today’s New York. Nearly three years into the Covid pandemic, there is a chaotic mood in the city — a feeling that pent-up energy is spilling into the streets and New Yorkers are more inclined to let their quirks, among other things, hang out. Old debates about public disorder have been fueled by the tabloid press and by politicians like Mayor Eric Adams, who has said he has “never witnessed crime at this level.” Statistics refute the idea that the city is experiencing unprecedented crime. (There were nearly 80 percent fewer murders last year than in 1990, when Adams worked as a transit cop.) But like many cities, New York in 2022 is facing overlapping crises in housing, health care and education, and neighborhoods across the boroughs show more visible signs of poverty and addiction. What Is New York aims for laughs, but it chronicles a population that is stretched and stressed.
Yes, it's no accident that such images are proliferating in today’s New York, but that's only because everyone carries a phone. Our ability to visually document the city's eccentricity has become a lot easier in recent years, but New York has been like this forever. (For the record, Subway Creatures debuted on Twitter more than a decade ago, in 2011.)
There is a larger dread that creeps into such feeds. Many posts document extreme weather and crumbling infrastructure: rainwater cascading into subway stations, cars bobbing like gondolas on flooded expressways. Then there are the intrusive species: footage of not just roaches and rats but also swarms of bees and spotted lanternflies, skunks in alleyways, a deer rooting through a trash can, a wild turkey on a car outside a housing project. Individually, they’re curiosities; collectively, they seem like portents of collapse, telling a foreboding story about out-of-whack ecosystems or a city gone feral.
I'm not sure the video of the deer (who's eating a discarded slice of pizza) was actually taken in the city, but if I see a deer or a wild turkey within the city limits, that doesn't fill me with dread -- it seems like magic.

And speaking of magic, watch this:


This is insanely dangerous. It's also thrilling to watch.

I don't know whether Rosen is consciously embracing the kind of "post-liberal" thinking that says excessive tolerance has turned cities into sinkholes of squalor and dirt, but those of us who feel at home in cities think it's frequently good to know that you can walk out into your world and see things you wouldn't have put there, because some of them will be awe-inspiring, preposterous, or both:


There's a political battle going on in America (and in many other countries) between people who don't want anything (or anyone) in their environment that makes them uncomfortable and people who don't want to be shielded from difference, messiness, or surprise, who know that intrusions of the unexpected might be unpleasant but can sometimes be amazing, while even most the unpleasant ones won't kill you.

Rosen gets this, somewhat:
What Is New York depicts the city in the romantic, self-flattering way many New Yorkers like to see it: as the world capital of weird, whose denizens are hard-bitten enough to find amusement in whatever craziness the city offers up.
But do we respond to these images because we see ourselves as hard-bitten? I don't think so. I think it's just that we're accustomed to jostling our way through a world full of other people (and occasionally animals, including unpleasant ones) with conflicting agendas -- and it's okay not to have everything around you in perfect harmony with you. Sometimes you get a pizza rat, sometimes you get a human ostrich.

Friday, October 07, 2022

A RIGHT-WINGER'S SOLUTION TO THE HERSCHEL WALKER PROBLEM IS SIMPLE, ELEGANT -- AND DOOMED TO FAIL

The Washington Examiner's Quin Hillyer thinks Herschel Walker should effectively withdraw from the Georgia Senate race, while keeping his name on the ballot.
Here’s what Walker should do: Announce that he will stay on the ballot because it is legally too late to replace him. He should say if he wins, he will indeed be sworn in, in January, to make things official. He should pledge, though, that within two days of being sworn in, he will resign — under one huge condition. Whomever the governor is (it is likely to be Republican Brian Kemp), of either party, they must agree to appoint a person chosen by the Georgia Republican Executive Committee to replace him until a new election can be held. The committee should name its choice before the Nov. 8 election so voters will know exactly for whom Walker is essentially standing as a proxy.
This idea might appeal to political insiders who worry that the seat is lost and will take any warm body who's a Republican in good standing -- but Republican voters in the state would probably be outraged, because most of them probably still admire Walker and believe either that he's done nothing wrong or that he's received a Get Out of Jail Free card from the Almighty. I assume that nearly all of them would still vote for Walker, but a certain percentage would be angry that they'd been deprived of the candidate they picked (by an overwhelming margin) in the primaries.

They'd probably think this is part of a massive Democrat/media/RINO/Deep State plot to steal the election. I think they'd assume that Stacey Abrams, if she agreed to this (though I don't know why she would), would renege on the deal if she were elected.

And some GOP voters would be angry about losing the one pro-Trump candidate on the statewide ballot. Who would pick the replacement? they'd ask. A cabal of RINO anti-Trumpers? (I realize that, in choosing to renominate Kemp for governor and Brad Raffensperger for secretary of state, a majority of Georgia Republicans rejected Trumpism -- but just enough of them would probably be upset by the prospect that the Georgia GOP was giving in to a Vast Left-Wing Conspiracy to destroy Walker, and would therefore stay home in November. Oh, and did I mention that Quin Hillyer is a charter member of the Never Trumpers?)

And if a vote for Walker is really a vote for (fill in the blank), shouldn't (fill in the blank) agree to debate Raphael Warnock? Can that be arranged?

Hillyer hopes someone outside of electoral politics would be the replacement senator:
That person should not be yet another elected official who would necessitate yet another special election to fill that seat. It should be someone readily able to perform well in the Senate immediately. (Randy Evans, former U.S. ambassador to Luxembourg and former general counsel to the U.S. speaker of the House, comes to mind.)
Evans actually served as general counsel to two Speakers: the disgraced Newt Gingrich and the disgraced Denny Hastert. When he was appointed by Donald Trump as ambassador to Luxembourg, 43 senators voted not to confirm him.

But I bet there'd be jockeying for the replacement slot as soon as it became clear that the Georgia GOP was taking the idea seriously. How hard is it to imagine a campaign to make Marjorie Taylor Greene the designated substitute senator?

Nice try, Mr. Hillyer, but I don't think this would work.

Thursday, October 06, 2022

THE GOP'S INCOMPETENT OCTOBER SURPRISE

This is supposedly the biggest story of the moment:
Federal agents see chargeable tax, gun-purchase case against Hunter Biden

Federal agents investigating President Biden’s son Hunter have gathered what they believe is sufficient evidence to charge him with tax crimes and a false statement related to a gun purchase, according to people familiar with the case. The next step is for the U.S. Attorney in Delaware, a Trump administration holdover, to decide on whether to file such charges, these people said.

... Given the intense political interest in a criminal probe involving the son of a sitting president, Attorney General Merrick Garland has made clear that the U.S. Attorney in Delaware, David C. Weiss, who was nominated by Trump in late 2017, is supervising the case.

... Republicans have pressed the Biden administration to appoint a special counsel to take over the investigation into the president’s son... Garland chose not to make such an appointment, instead keeping the case with Weiss....

The primary focus of the tax investigation has been whether Hunter Biden did not declare income related to his various business ventures, including overseas. The gun paperwork part of the investigation stems from 2018, a time period in which Hunter Biden, by his own account, was smoking crack cocaine.

In October of that year, Biden purchased a handgun, filling out a federal form in which he allegedly answered “no” to the question whether he was “an unlawful user of, or addicted to, marijuana or any depressant, stimulant, narcotic drug, or any other controlled substance?”
So an indictment is imminent? Not according to Ken White, the lawyer and commentator also known as Popehat:


I think we can safely assume that this is a leak on behalf of Republicans, and that it's intended to be an October surprise.

If so, it's a terrible one.

If you live in the right-wing bubble, the fact that Hunter Biden is still a free man is a world-historical miscarriage of justice. It's as if Hitler really escaped at the end of the war and was living the sweet life in Argentina. No, if you're in the right-wing bubble, it's worse. To the right, Hunter Biden is one of the most notorious criminals in human history.

Everyone else in America, I'm convinced, just shrugs. I don't believe any non-Republican voter hears about Hunter Biden's misdeeds and thinks, That's why I can't vote for a Democrat -- including for Joe Biden. Many presidents have black-sheep relatives. Billy Carter. Roger Clinton. Neil Bush. (Our previous president didn't have a black-sheep relative because he is the black sheep in his family.)

I guess I know what will happen next. Republicans will stamp their collective foot and demand that the totally corrupt Justice Department indict Hunter right away. That will be highly motivating to ... um, people who were 100% certain to vote for Republicans in the midterms anyway. No one else will care.

I actually hope Republicans try to make the midterms about Hunter Biden, because swing voters are no more likely to believe that his story is relevant to their lives than (alas) they are to to believe that January 6 is relevant to their lives. We know from polling that Democrats' focus on the insurrection and attempted election theft hasn't motivated very many voters who weren't already upset about it. Now Republicans can rant about something that's even less relevant to ordinary people's lives -- and watch it have no impact on the midterm results.

WHEN SCANDAL HITS, REPUBLICANS DON'T EVEN BOTHER TO WHATABOUT ANYMORE

The latest news about Herschel Walker is that the woman whose abortion he financed is also the mother of one of the children he didn't publicly acknowledge until earlier this year.

Some observers think we're seeing "the dying embers" of Walker's Senate campaign. I don't. I think he'll come out of this unscathed. He might even come out of this in a stronger position.

Last week, a Fox News poll showed Walker trailing Raphael Warnock by 5 points. (Unlike the rest of Fox News, Fox's polls don't have a Republican skew.) Here was one reason for Warnock's lead:
Warnock enjoys more party loyalty, as 95% of Democrats support him vs. 82% of Republicans for Walker.
That may be about to change. Republicans officials and their allies are making very public displays of support for Walker. The message is that whatever he's done in his life, Walker will vote the way Republicans want him to vote -- and also that he's being attacked by the Democrat/media Axis of Evil.


This has the potential to increase Walker's support within his party. Republicans who were lukewarm about Walker might rally around him now.

This is not how Donald Trump extricated himself from the Access Hollywood scandal. He did that with whataboutism and distraction, as Tim Alberta reported in his 2019 book American Carnage. After the "Grab 'em by the pussy" tape went public, and Republican National Committee chairman Reince Priebus told Trump, “Either you’ll lose in the biggest landslide in history, or you can get out of the race and let somebody else run who can win,” Trump and his team took charge. A debate was scheduled to take place two days after the release of the tape. Trump response was to paint Bill Clinton as the real sexual predator, and Hillary Clinton as his accomplice. He also portrayed Hillary as corrupt:
It was less than two hours until the start of the October 9 presidential debate.... Without advance warning, Trump held an impromptu news conference alongside a group of women who had publicly accused Bill Clinton of sexual misconduct....

Trump attacked and counterattacked throughout [the debate], bringing up Bill Clinton’s history of being “abusive to women” and aggressively prosecuting Clinton’s use of a private email server while secretary of state, an issue he had failed to raise during the first debate. “If I win,” Trump declared, “I am going to instruct my attorney general to get a special prosecutor to look into your situation. Because there have never been so many lies, so much deception.”

“Everything he just said was absolutely false,” Clinton responded when given the floor, adding, “It’s just awfully good that someone with the temperament of Donald Trump is not in charge of the law in our country.”

“Because you’d be in jail,” Trump shot back. Some audience members gasped. Others cheered.... Within 48 hours the bleeding had stopped: Republicans ceased their calls for his withdrawal, Pence dutifully returned to the stump and his campaign went on as though nothing had happened.
Oh, and, of course, the hacked emails of Clinton campaign manager John Podesta were released by Wikileaks one hour after the Access Hollywood tape was made public.

In terms of sheer aggression, it's the same playbook. But this time, Republicans are barely trying to change the subject. It appears as if they want the Walker scandal to be the subject, because they want Walker to be perceived as a victim of a brutal assault by the amoral do-anything-to-win liberals. And I worry that it might really work.