Thursday, August 19, 2021

THAT'S NOT HOW IT WORKS

NBC News says that President Biden believes he won't suffer long-term political harm from the Afghanistan withdrawal.
President Joe Biden is standing firmly by his decision to withdraw U.S. forces from Afghanistan, despite chaotic scenes of the Taliban rapidly seizing control and the U.S. rushing to airlift diplomats out of the country.

Behind his confidence is a political bet that a war-weary U.S. public will stick with him and enable him to weather a firestorm of criticism....
He might be right. Polls continue to show that at least a plurality of Americans support withdrawal, and a new AP-NORC poll says that 62% of Americans believe the war in Afghanistan was not worth fighting.

But this isn't a reason for Biden to feel confident:
"No one likes where this ended up, but it's hard to see Republicans winning elections on a campaign promise to go back to war in Afghanistan in 2022 or 2024," said Jesse Ferguson, a Democratic consultant who has worked for the party's House campaign arm and Hillary Clinton's 2016 presidential bid.
Republicans won't campaign on that specific policy proposal because Republicans dont campaign on real policy proposals anymore. They campaign on fake policy proposals (protecting Americans from Antifa and Critical Race Theory) or oppositional-defiant policy proposals (defunding schools that have mask mandates). Real policy proposals, like a new war? No Republican candidate in 2024 will go there. But that doesn't mean they won't campaign against what's happening in Afghanistan now.

Chaos video from the Kabul airport will be in every GOP candidate's ads, but the candidates won't offer solutions. Their message will be Biden bad! It won't be Here's how we'd do better. They'll say, We're Republicans. That means we're real Americans and real men. We're not snowflakes and soy boys. So of course we'd do better. Something something steadfast. Something something resolve. Something something freedom.

I don't believe what's happening now will mean much to voters in three years. But if it does, expect a lot of vague talk about "defending our allies and standing up to our enemies." Expect the work "weak" to be used a lot in reference to Biden. Just don't expect serious policy proposals. Republicanism is all junk food and no real meals.

Wednesday, August 18, 2021

IF THIS WERE HAPPENING UNDER TRUMP, WE'D BE DUE FOR A SHINY OBJECT RIGHT ABOUT NOW

Unsurprisingly, Reuters had bad polling news for President Biden yesterday:
President Joe Biden's approval rating dropped by 7 percentage points and hit its lowest level so far as the U.S.-backed Afghan government collapsed over the weekend in an upheaval that sent thousands of civilians and Afghan military allies fleeing for their safety, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.

The national opinion poll, conducted on Monday, found that 46% of American adults approved of Biden's performance in office, the lowest recorded in weekly polls that started when Biden took office in January.

It is also down from the 53% who felt the same way in a similar Reuters/Ipsos poll that ran on Friday.
The disapproval number is 47%.

Donald Trump's job approval numbers also hit a low in August of his first year in office. According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted August 11-15, 2017, 35% of Americans approved of the job Trump was doing and 58% disapproved. In a subsequent Reuters poll, conducted August 18-22, Trump's approval/disapproval numbers were 36%/59%.

The recent events that lowered Trump's approval rating included the effort to repeal Obamacare, which ended in failure in the Senate at the end of July, and the "Unite the Right" white nationalist rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, which took place on August 11 and 12 and resulted in the death of an anti-racist counterprotester. On August 15, Trump said that there were "very fine people on both sides" of the deadly rally.

There was dismay even at The Federalist, where a piece was published under the headline "Donald Trump Needs To Not Be President Yesterday." (Subhead: "We're done with the 'take what we can get' phase of Donald Trump's administration. It's time for the 'he's a disaster and needs to go' phase.")

So exactly four years ago, Republicans were more or less where Democrats are now. But in Trumpworld there was always a shiny object just over the horizon.

On August 1, the left-leaning American Prospect published an impolitic interview with then-White House adviser Steve Bannon. Bannon's white nationalist views were under scrutiny in the aftermath of Charlottesville, and he was soon fired. On August 25, Trump pardoned Joe Arpaio, the racist former sheriff of Arizona's Maricopa County, who'd been found in criminal contempt of court for defying a federal judge's order to stop racially profiling Hispanics in his county. By early September, we were back in gossip mode again -- news outlets were reporting breathlessly that Chief of Staff John Kelly had pushed out Omarosa!

It took a while for Trump's numbers to return consistently to the 40s, but they got there, and remained there, after Trump signed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act into law on December 22, 2017.

I don't know whether the Biden administration can distract the public -- and especially the media -- with personnel drama or some other distraction. A big legislative win would help. But just remember that the Trump presidency seemed to be taking on water four years ago today, and he came within about 43,000 votes of an Electoral College win three years later.

DOES THE MEDIA REMEMBER HOW TO SCOLD REPUBLICANS?

The Biden administration wants us to get booster shots.
Top U.S. health officials announced Wednesday that the country has developed a plan to start offering Covid-19 booster shots to all Americans beginning the third week of September, citing evidence that protection is waning not only against hospitalization and death, but also mild and moderate infections, as the highly contagious delta variant continues to spread....

The administration is preparing to begin administering the booster shots starting the week of September 20, assuming that the FDA and the CDC sign off on the safety and effectiveness of the doses by that point.

Individuals would be eligible for a third dose of either the Moderna or Pfizer-BioNTech shots eight months after their second dose.
Joe Biden got his second Pfizer shot on January 11, on camera, so he'll be just past the eight-month mark when this program starts. He'll probably get his booster on camera.

His predecessor was also vaxxed in January, on or before the 20th, so he'll be ready for a booster by 9/20.
Former President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump quietly received the Covid-19 vaccine at the White House in January, a Trump advisor told NBC News on Monday.

It is not clear which type of vaccine they received and they were not disclosed at the time by the Trump White House. The official White House photographer was also not present to document the event, according to an official with direct knowledge.
Before the news went wall-to-wall Aghanistan, the media devoted quite a bit of time to scolding President Biden (and Democrats and liberals in general) for not being nice enough to the unvaccinated -- even though they're so nice to us!


But now there'll be a fresh opportunity to promote vaccination, and for people in the public eye to model pro-vaccine behavior.


If, for a few minutes, the press can stop scolding Biden for the problematic Afghanistan withdrawal (understandable) and for right-wing rejection of vaccines (not Biden's fault), maybe it can spare some time to demand that Trump get his booster while cameras are rolling. I know the media has concluded that Trump isn't supposed to be held to the same moral standards as ordinary mortals, but could reporters and pundits at least consider wagging their fingers at him for a change?

Do your part, Donnie! Get publicly boosted and tell your people to get vaxxed! Or will we just blame Biden when Trump doesn't?

Tuesday, August 17, 2021

THE ENDLESS WAIT FOR THE REPUBLICAN PARTY'S COMEUPPANCE

Greg Sargent is predicting the Republicans' doom again.
The latest GOP anti-mask lunacy is stirring a backlash. New polling reveals it.

The other day, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis likened mask and other health mandates to “medical authoritarianism.” The Republican added that we may be witnessing “the most significant threat to freedom in my lifetime, certainly since the fall of the Berlin Wall.”

Because DeSantis was speaking in the hermetically sealed-off information universe of Fox News, such drivel was certain to elicit approval. But outside of that universe — with DeSantis and Texas GOP Gov. Greg Abbott actively thwarting local officials from protecting their constituents with mask mandates — a backlash to these antics may be brewing.

A new Axios-Ipsos poll probes public sentiments on this in a novel way. It asks respondents about state laws that prohibit local officials from creating mask requirements. Both DeSantis and Abbott have sought to do this, albeit by executive order.

The result: 66 percent of Americans oppose such state laws, and only 33 percent support them. What’s more, the poll also finds that a whopping 77 percent oppose efforts to withhold funding from school districts and local governments that implement mask mandates.

This fills in our understanding of public opinion. Polling has already shown that large majorities favor mask mandates when asked. This new data shows that equally large majorities oppose efforts by governors to actively prevent local officials from implementing such measures.
There's just one problem: Where's the backlash?

I'm aware that a recent survey from St. Pete Polls showed DeSantis with a negative job approval rating. But he wasn't very far underwater: He was at 44% approval, 49% disapproval.

In the same survey, 62% of respondents said that masks should be required in schools. Which means that at least 13% of Floridians approve of school mask mandates but don't disapprove of a governor who's made them illegal. (And keep in mind that a recent Florida Chamber of Commerce poll showed DeSantis with a 54% approval rating.)

Greg Abbott? His approval/disapproval numbers in February 2020 were 48%/34%, according to the University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll; in March 2021, they dropped to 45%/43%. They were 43%/45% in April and 44%/44% in June. So we seem to have found Abbott's floor: approximately equal approval and disapproval.

Meanwhile:
Most Texans support measures requiring all eligible people to get vaccinated against COVID-19, according to a recent survey.

More than 65 percent of Texans said they would support vaccine mandates issued by federal, state or local governments; the national average was 64 percent. More than 70 percent of Texans would support vaccine requirements to board an airplane; more than 62 percent would support vaccine mandates for children returning to schools; and 67 percent would support them for students returning to universities.
Those numbers are from August. Will the disapproval numbers for Abbott, who seems to oppose all pandemic mitigation measures, tank as a result?

It's not happening to DeSantis, so why should it happen to Abbott? For Republican voters, tribalism invariably trumps issue politics.

Bruce Bartlett, a disaffected ex-Republican, tweets:


Bartlett's second sentence is right, but because Democrats aren't being aggressive as he recommends, his first sentence is wrong. It's possible that nothing would make even reasonably sensible Republican-leaning voters vote against their party. But Democrats aren't trying very hard to attack Republicans for recklessly enabling disease, so I guess we'll never know.

FOX PRIME TIME'S HAMMER-AND-ANVIL STRATEGY

At Fox News, President Biden is being attacked for how he handled the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan -- but he's also being attacked for wanting to do the right thing about the humantarian crisis that resulted.

Here's Tucker Carlson:
Fox News host Tucker Carlson warned his viewers on Monday night that U.S. elites would use the sudden collapse of Afghanistan to resettle “millions” of Afghan migrants “in your neighborhood,” describing the granting of asylum to war refugees as an invasion....

“So we’re getting it and if history is any guide—and it’s always a guide —we will see many refugees from Afghanistan resettle in our country in coming months, probably in your neighborhood,” he concluded. “And over the next decade, that number may swell to the millions. So first we invade, and then we’re invaded. It is always the same.”
In 2009, on the Bubba the Love Sponge radio show, Carlson said of Afghanistan, "Well, it's never going to be a civilized country because the people aren't civilized." (At least he didn't call the Afghans "semiliterate primitive monkeys" -- he said that about Iraqis.) On last night's show, as Carlson was warning about an "invasion" of America by Afghan refugees, he seemed to praise what he described as Aghanistan's rejection of feminism.
TUCKER CARLSON (HOST): American-funded gender advisors demanded that women compromise at least 10 percent of the Afghan national army and a still larger proportion of that country's political leadership.

Thanks to American-imposed gender quotas, dozens of women ultimately were installed as representatives in Afghan's parliament. How did that work? Well, the whole thing was a sham, as always. In fact, many of these new female legislators had never been to the provinces they claim to represent.

Almost nobody in Afghanistan liked any of this, by the way, and why would they? As one USAID official conceded in a classified report, quote, "Focusing on gender made things more unstable because it caused revolts." It caused revolts, but officials kept doing it, they kept pushing radical gender politics anyway, because they could, because they were in charge of these Stone Age people they were going to educate.
So Carlson still believes the Afghans are "Stone Age people," in which case you'd think he might be pleased that President Biden stopped trying to prop up their government. On the other hand, the Afghans reject "wokeness," so you'd think Carlson would want them in America. But, of course, everything Carlson's enemies do is wrong.

Laura Ingraham also warns of a refugee menace:
On her Monday show, the Fox News host complained about Afghani people making their way to the United States

"Is it really our responsibility to welcome thousands of un-vetted refugees from Afghanistan?" she asked.

Ingraham noted that all day people have been saying that the U.S. promised them we'd save them.

"Well? Did you?" she asked.
A month ago, Ingraham said she was in favor of the withdrawal.
INGRAHAM: President Biden did the right thing today in standing by his decision to withdraw American troops from Afghanistan, something Trump wanted to do but, frankly, he was blocked by his generals.
Her only concern was that we might spend any money at all on trying to help the Afghan people.
INGRAHAM: I think people shouldn't begin to think tonight that leaving Afghanistan means we are going to stop wasting tax dollars....

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOE BIDEN, (D) PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We will continue to provide civilian and humanitarian assistance, including speaking out for the rights of women and girls. I intend to maintain our diplomatic presence in Afghanistan, and we are coordinating closely with our international partners in order to continue to secure the international airport.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

INGRAHAM: So the troops are coming out, but we are still spending money there.
According to Ingraham, President Biden "did the right thing" by withdrawing from Afghanistan -- but we shouldn't be a humanitarian presence in the country (and now we won't be) and we shouldn't resettle Afghan refugees in America. I imagine that would have been Donald Trump's approach if he'd overseen this withdrawal: Get the U.S. personnel out and embrace the cruelty of the humanitarian crisis. Reject the notion of moral obligation to Afghans left behind. Say "Our country is full" and let the killing begin. We've seen throughout the pandemic, and through a couple of decades' worth of mass shootings, that right-wingers aren't punished politically for being pro-death, as long as they display no remorse. If it's clear that they simply don't care how many people suffer and die, they're given a pass. But President Biden is trying to repair the damage done by this withdrawal. As a result, he'll continue to be attacked.

Monday, August 16, 2021

CLICKBAIT INTERVENTIONISM AT THE NEW YORK TIMES

Here's a headline on the front page of the New York Times site:


Here's a tweet promoting the story from a Times reporter:


What does "instilling terror" lead you to expect? Beheadings? Public floggings? Gang rapes by Taliban soldiers? Arrestees sent to torture prisons?

I won't be surprised if all that happens. But for now, here's what's happening, according to the story:
It was his first day as the Taliban-appointed mayor of Kunduz, and Gul Mohammad Elias was on a charm offensive.

Last Sunday, the insurgents seized control of the city in northern Afghanistan, which was in shambles after weeks of fighting. Power lines were down. The water supply, powered by generators, did not reach most residents. Trash and rubble littered the streets.

The civil servants who could fix those problems were hiding at home, terrified of the Taliban. So the insurgent-commander-turned-mayor summoned some to his new office, to persuade them to return to work.

“I said that our jihad is not with the municipality, our jihad is against the occupiers and those who defend the occupiers,” Mr. Elias told The New York Times by telephone.

But day by day, as municipal offices stayed mostly empty, Mr. Elias grew more frustrated — and his rhetoric grew harsher.

Taliban fighters began going door to door, searching for absentee city workers. Hundreds of armed men set up checkpoints across the city. At the entrance to the regional hospital, a new notice appeared on the wall: Employees must return to work or face punishment from the Taliban.
Harsh rhetoric. Threats. But no reports of brutality yet.
Three days after the Taliban took control in Kunduz, Atiqullah Omarkhil, a civil servant, received a call from an insurgent fighter telling him to go to his office. The mayor of Kunduz wanted to speak with him, he said....

Inside the building, Mr. Omarkhil joined eight municipal employees and Mr. Elias, the Taliban commander, who introduced himself as the new mayor.

A young man with a long beard, Mr. Elias assured them they would not be targeted by the Taliban and instructed them to return to work, to improve people’s morale. Sharing his mobile number, he told them to call if they had any trouble from Taliban fighters.

“We have captured the city, and now we can assure the people that we will provide basic services,” Mr. Omarkhil, who was interviewed by telephone, quoted Mr. Elias as saying.

Halfway through the meeting, a shopkeeper pleaded with a Taliban bodyguard to see the mayor. Like hundreds of others, his kiosk had been mostly destroyed by fire during the Taliban’s final push. He said shopkeepers, fearing that what remained of their stores would be looted, wanted the Taliban’s promise that they could return to the market to collect their things safely, Mr. Omarkhil said.

The mayor complied, even providing reimbursement for the taxi and bus fare they spent on moving their goods, according to Mr. Omarkhil.
Is Mr. Omarkhil telling the whole truth? Is there more he's afraid to say? I have no idea. But there's no reported brutality of the kind implied by the phrase "instilling terror."

This is low-rent clickbait. The Times has clearly concluded that it's time to shake off the post-Iraq syndrome and cheerlead for interventionism again.

THE REAL DEEP STATE: ATTACK-DOG RIGHTISTS AND FINGER-WAGGING CENTRISTS

There's not much difference right now between coverage of the fall of Afghanistan in the mainstream media and the right-wing media:



Afghanistan is a mess (although it's a twenty-year mess) -- but the mainstream press is writing about the crisis with relish, attacking Biden the way the right-wing media usually attacks Democrats.

It's always harder for a Democrat in a crisis because a Republican can count on the right-wing media to close ranks around a GOP president, which often inspires the mainstream media to temper its criticism of the Republican. If you're a Democrat in a crisis, the right will unload on you and the mainstream press will pile on as well.

The attack-dog right, inspired by speeches written for Trump, recently opposed "endless wars" -- until Joe Biden actually ended one. But two decades ago the right and the mainstream media agreed that those endless wars were absolutely necessary. What I see in the response to the Afghanistan news by many mainstream pundits and journalists is smug satisfaction that, after years of having to apologize for getting Iraq wrong, they can now revert proudly to the interventionism they loved all along. That's the real Deep State: centrists and right-wing extremists agreeing that a Democrat is world-historically awful.

Sunday, August 15, 2021

THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA REALLY, REALLY WANTS TO PRE-SELECT BOTH PARTY NOMINEES FOR 2024

There's too much real news right now for this Washington Post story to gain traction, but don't worry, it will be followed up by many others:
Six months into his tenure as President Biden’s transportation secretary, [Pete] Buttigieg has not only entered the arena, he is standing at center court and schmoozing with players on both teams. A former South Bend, Ind. mayor who embraced the outsider mantle as a candidate, Buttigieg has quickly morphed into a quintessential Washington insider. He has used his position at the center of the high-stakes infrastructure talks to mend old rifts, strengthen existing friendships and build new alliances.

His smooth debut has taken on greater significance as Democrats confront tough questions about the future of the party leadership. Biden says he intends to run for reelection, but as he nears his 79th birthday, that is no sure bet for many Democrats. Vice President Harris, Biden’s heir apparent, has had a rocky first few months on the job, prompting some Democrats to question her ability to pick up the baton....

As a chief salesman for the bipartisan infrastructure plan that passed the Senate last Tuesday, Buttigieg has emerged the most visible member of the cabinet, and he is expected to play a prominent role as the talks shift to the House....

He is omnipresent on television and across the country, pitching new investments in railways and electric vehicles. He has become a fixture at dinners, Zoom meetings and photo-ops with boldface names. He gives out his number freely to members of Congress and frequently trades text messages with them.

... He has stayed in touch with members of his powerful donor network, parts of which have stuck together and put their money behind new causes. Many are hopeful that Buttigieg will run again, and his name routinely comes up in conversations about future elections.
In conjection with Fox News, the "liberal" media has already chosen the 2024 Republican presidential nominee, Ron DeSantis -- assuming Donald Trump doesn't run again (though he probably will). The press feels entitled to select the Democratic nominee as well, and would prefer that neither Biden (too old and boring) or Harris (ick! girls!) head the ticket.

So we'll be told that the choice of a "powerful donor network" is the candidate we really want, even though there's the pesky question of whether Buttigieg can appeal to the most important voting bloc in the party:
In the eyes of some Buttigieg allies, the transportation job ... can help [Buttigieg] shore up his biggest weakness as a candidate — his struggles among voters of color — by enabling him to showcase public works projects in diverse communities.

“Tailpipe emissions disproportionately impact communities of color and lower-income communities that tend to live nearer to heavily trafficked roadways and routes,” Buttigieg said in a typical comment during a recent trip to Georgia. “We have a chance to drive health equity as well as economic development through the right kind of climate action.”
Also:
Later this month, Buttigieg donors are holding a Zoom fundraiser for Quentin Hart, the mayor of Waterloo, Iowa. Hart, the Black mayor of Iowa’s most diverse city, was a key surrogate for Buttigieg as he struggled to make inroads with voters of color during his campaign.

“Mayor Hart is a great example of candidates that we know share our values, and they’re sort of part of the community,” said Nicole Davison Fox, a Buttigieg bundler and a partner at a New York investment fund. “It’s a community that’s rooting for Pete and the Biden administration from the sidelines.”
I don't know who'll be the Democratic nominee in 2024 if Biden doesn't run and Harris falters or chooses not to run herself. But whatever happens, I don't believe that having Wall Streeters run an online fundraiser for the Black mayor of a city even smaller than Buttigieg's own South Bend will be the key to winning the South Carolina primary three years from now, or even one of the keys. I think Buttigieg will always struggle to win over voters of color (as well as white voters who'd prefer a candidate capable of expressing human feelings). But the mainstream press will just keep trying to make him the consensus pick.

Saturday, August 14, 2021

OBAMA SUPERSPREADER EVENT? NOT SO FAR.

This is the lead story at Breitbart, and I'm sure your right-wing relatives are already talking about it:
Obama Variant: Martha’s Vineyard Hit with Coronavirus Spike After Superspreader Birthday Party

The island of Martha’s Vineyard experienced a spike in coronavirus cases this week after President Barack Obama’s 60th birthday party last Saturday.

The Daily Mail reports that 74 people on Martha’s Vineyard have tested positive for the virus — the highest number of cases in a week on the island since April....

The Daily Mail also reported that six staffers tested positive at the Harbor view Hotel, where some of the celebrities attending the party stayed.
So was the Obama party the reason for the uptick in cases? Let's go to that Daily Mail story:
Martha's Vineyard was already experiencing a new surge in cases when Obama, preparing to welcome 500 guests to his mansion, announced his party would be 'scaled back' amid criticism as the Delta coronavirus variant spread across the country.

In the week leading up to his party, 48 new cases were reported on the island through Saturday, double the prior week.
Right -- that's how COVID works. If you have 24 cases one week and 48 the next, a further spike is very likely. It doesn't require a major precipitating event. Here's the pre-party weekly case count, as reported in the local Vineyard Gazette:


This chart accompanies a story datelined August 9 -- two days after the Obama party. It mentions the six positive staffers at the Harbor View Hotel, "with two confirmed via PCR test and four probable cases from over-the-counter tests." Since most people don't get tested unless they develop symptoms (which invariably take a few days to show up after infection), and since results from a PCR test also generally take a couple of days, it seems highly unlikely that these staffers were infected as the result of a party that took place two days before this news story was posted.

There's no evidence that COVID is on the increase on Martha's Vineyard because of Obama's party. COVID appears to be on the increase there because many people go to there during the summer for reasons entirely unrelated to Barack Obama.

I said in an earlier post that the decision to go ahead with a scaled-back but still large Obama birthday party was feeding a right-wing propaganda narrative: that liberal elitists use COVID to restrict ordinary people's freedom while the elitists themselves do whatever the hell they want. A narrative like this doesn't have to be true to be effective as propaganda. Serious efforts were made to keep the Obama party safe -- guests were asked to be vaccinated and were required to submit proof of COVID-negative status just before the event -- but the propaganda hits keep coming. Maybe you don't think it matters what right-wing yahoos believe. But I think it's worth doing some pushback on this nonsense.

Friday, August 13, 2021

MANY OF OUR STATES ARE ALREADY ILLIBERAL

In The Guardian, David Daley (author of the national bestseller Ratf**ked: Why Your Vote Doesn’t Count) and activist Gaby Goldstein remind us that Orban-style illiberal democracy isn't a potential problem in America -- it's already here.
The United States is becoming a land filled with “democracy deserts”, where gerrymandering and voting restrictions are making voters powerless to make change. And this round of redistricting could make things even worse.

Since 2012, the Electoral Integrity Project at Harvard University has studied the quality of elections worldwide. It has also issued biannual reports that grade US states, on a scale of 1 through 100. In its most recent study of the 2020 elections, the integrity of Wisconsin’s electoral boundaries earned a 23 – worst in the nation, on par with Jordan, Bahrain and the Congo.

... But Wisconsin isn’t the only democracy desert. Alabama (31), North Carolina (32), Michigan (37), Ohio (33), Texas (35), Florida (37) and Georgia (39) scored only marginally higher. Nations that join them in the 30s include Hungary, Turkey and Syria.

Representative democracy has been broken for the past decade in places like Wisconsin, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Florida....

In Wisconsin, for example, voters handed Democrats every statewide race in 2018 and 203,000 more votes for the state assembly – but the tilted Republican map handed Republicans 63 of the 99 seats nevertheless. Democratic candidates have won more or nearly the same number of votes for Michigan’s state house for the last decade – but never once captured a majority of seats.
Democrats won a majority of the popular vote for seats in the Michigan House again in 2020 -- but Republicans won six more seats than Democrats.

In states where it's essentially impossible for Democrats to win even one house of the state legislature, Republicans can shift responsibilities from a governor or secretary of state to the legislature, secure in the knowledge that Democrats will never wield that power. That's what happened recently in Georgia under certain provisions of the new vote suppression law. This could ultimately lead to legislatures rejecting the popular vote in future elections -- or, more likely, lead to Republicans closing large numbers of polling places in Democratic counties while purging Democratic voters from the rolls (an opportunity they'll have in Georgia when they take over the election board in Fulton County, as now seems inevitable). And, of course, permanent Republican control of state legislatures means permanent control of congressional redistricting.

All of which is why the focus on Donald Trump and January 6 as a template for a future curtailment of democracy is probably misguided. Republicans might unleash an army of angry white racists in 2024 to intimidate Congress into overturning election results -- but they're more likely to just continue the long game they've been playing for years, as they slowly conquer more and more territory that Democrats will never be able to make them cede at the ballot box.

IF THE COVID DOOMSAYERS ARE RIGHT, EXPECT A LOT MORE INFECTIONS -- AND MAYBE A GOP WAVE ELECTION

David Wallace-Wells of New York magazine has been talking to COVID experts who are looking at the performance of the Delta variant and don't believe we're in a pandemic of the unvaccinated.
“The message that breakthrough cases are exceedingly rare and that you don’t have to worry about them if you’re vaccinated — that this is only an epidemic of the unvaccinated — that message is falling flat,” Harvard epidemiologist Michael Mina told me.... “If this was still Alpha, sure. But with Delta, plenty of people are getting sick. Plenty of transmission is going on. And my personal opinion is that the whole notion of herd immunity from two vaccine shots is flying out the window very quickly with this new variant.”

“We’re seeing a lot more spread in vaccinated people,” agreed Scripps’s Eric Topol, who estimated that the vaccines’ efficacy against symptomatic transmission, which he estimated to be 90 percent or above for the wild-type strain and all previous variants, had fallen to about 60 percent for Delta. “That’s a big drop.” Later, he suggested it might have fallen to 50 percent, and that new data about to be published in the U.S. would suggest an even lower rate. On Wednesday, a large pre-print study published by the Mayo clinic suggested the efficacy against infection had fallen as far as 42 percent.
Mina, the Harvard epidemiologist, believes that the vaccines aren't doing a very good job of preventing transmission by the vaccinated, because of the extreme transmissibility of Delta.
... my lab has probably done as much as anyone in the world at this point to really understand all of the confounding factors with viral loads. Now, I’m no oracle here. But what I do well is I look at, what should we expect from the immune system? What should we expect from viral kinetics and how would that play out in the population data? And if your peak viral load is at a billion or a trillion copies per milliliter, you’re going to transmit.

... I would say, tentatively, that, if we had a crystal ball, and we could say there are X number of people who have been exposed, then the probability of an exposure turning into an infection is, as an example, 30 percent lower amongst vaccinated.

... I’d say that there’s a very good chance that vaccines will help prevent an exposure turning into an infection. But amongst those who are getting infected and detected, the viral loads are really high. And we’re clearly seeing transmission happen. We’re seeing outbreaks happen amongst vaccinated groups.
He thinks the surges we're seeing now will happen will happen elsewhere, including highly vaccinated parts of the country, in part because the immunity of the vaccinated elderly is likely to wane. (He expects them to need booster shots.)
... Florida will get through this relatively quickly, because it’s burning through the state so quickly already. But by the time it gets to the Northeast and really takes over here, I think we’ll be pushing into late September, and we still have a lot of cases happening.

And at that point, we’re going to start seeing seasonality really take hold. So I think it will be very similar in fact to what we’ve seen across the world and across this country before — multiple waves, spatially segregated. That’s because we’re a large country with different kinds of attack for this virus and different strategies to control it. And so for the U.S. as a whole that just ends up creating a much longer duration wave than what we see in a smaller country like the U.K., for example.
If Mina and Topol are right -- especially about surges in vaccinated America -- one of the consequences will be political. Ron DeSantis and his rooting section, which includes not just the entire American right but much of the mainstream media, will expect liberals to eat crow, and blame themselves for the autumn and winter surges. President Biden, who staked so much of his reputation on his ability to contain the pandemic more effectively than Donald Trump, will begin to be perceived as a failure.

I already believe 2022 will be a good year for Republicans. The GOP knows how to fire up its voters for midterm cycles; Democrats usually don't. But if we're about to go through another bad pandemic year, and experience surges in blue and purple areas as well as red ones, then the party identified with vaccines and a strong belief in public health is likely to get blamed when public health measures don't seem to work. It's not our fault that we didn't know what Delta would be like, but that won't stop Republicans from saying that our approach has failed.

The worst predictions might not come true. If they do, voters might rally around the party that seems to care about doing the right thing. A combination of vaccines and natural immunity might allow us to feel reasonably safe in the spring of 2022 -- a few months before the midterms.

But bad COVID news in the next year could be bad for Democrats. Be ready for that.

Thursday, August 12, 2021

WHAT IF DEMOCRATS ARE THE NORMAL AMERICANS?

Greg Sargent writes:
It has been repeated so often that it’s become an accepted maxim: The country is “deeply polarized” over the government response to covid-19. This has become the new “culture war.” Americans now inhabit “two separate realities.” And so forth.

The new focus of this claim is the national battle that has erupted over mask mandates...

But what if the country isn’t actually that divided over the idea? ...

Two new polls suggest this possibility...

A new Politico/Morning Consult poll, for instance, finds large majorities of registered voters either strongly or somewhat support their local governments requiring masks for offices (64 percent), for indoor dining (61 percent), at gyms (62 percent) and at entertainment venues (65 percent)....

“We are finding across demographics that there is majority support for mask mandates,” Robin Graziano, a pollster for Morning Consult, told me.

Meanwhile, a new Kaiser Family Foundation poll finds that 63 percent of parents of school-age children say unvaccinated students and staff should be required to wear masks while they’re in school....

In both polls, however, only minorities of Republican respondents support the mask mandates, even as majorities of independents (and Democrats) support them....

“Republicans are really the only outliers here, with majorities of Republicans consistently opposed,” Graziano of Morning Consult told me.
I've told you over and over and over again for years that this country is divided into two groups: Republicans and Americans. On guns, on abortion, on the minimum wage, on climate change, on the Iraq War in Bush's second term, on Trump, and now on COVID, Democrats and independents have largely been in agreement. It's Republicans who are the outliers. It's Republicans who stand in the way of consensus. It's Republicans who won't let us have nice things.

And yet Republicans say they're the only real Americans -- and the mainstream media, with its endless safaris into Ohio and Pennsylvania diners full of sullen white men in ball caps and goatees, clearly agrees.

Enough. It's time for the influencers in our political world to recognize who's out of step here. Republicans are the ones who won't compromise. Republicans are the ones who create polarization. Polarization is their brand. The rest of us just want to live together as Americans. And we could, if it weren't for Republicans.

Wednesday, August 11, 2021

WE NEED RAGE, TOO

The headline for this Paul Waldman piece in The Washington Post is wrong:
The new GOP midterm election strategy is to make everyone mad
Republicans don't want to make everyone mad. They want to make their voters (and potential voters) mad. They don't want to rile up the rest of us -- as Waldman acknowledges a few paragraphs in.
... what they’re actually doing is trying out different ways of getting their base, and anyone else, as angry as possible....

In particular, Republicans want people to direct their anger at public health officials who are urging new mask requirements, and Democrats who say those requirements might be a good idea, especially since so many people are refusing to be vaccinated....

This is all generated and reinforced by a Republican message machine designed to identify and stimulate anger points, which can then, it is hoped, be turned into ratings and votes. It’s a kind of rolling test in which different issues are offered up to the GOP base to see what increases its pulse the most. Are you madder about high gas prices, or critical race theory, or having to wear a mask when you go down to the Piggly Wiggly?

But here’s the thing: The perfect midterm issue is one that gets your side angry and motivated but doesn’t do the same to the other side. That was true in 2010 of Obamacare: It filled Republican voters with fury, but since most of the law’s benefits didn’t take effect until much later, it did nothing to motivate Democrats.
Waldman suspects that mask and vaccine mandates might inspire rage that isn't merely one-sided:
The difference today could be that everyone is getting mad, including Democrats. As The Post reports, with so many Republicans going on a holy war against masks and even vaccines, some in the GOP fear the party ["is] on track to make itself the face of the delta variant — endangering fellow Americans while also risking severe political damage in the long term.”
But is it? The reason Republicans tend to overperform at the ballot box is that larger numbers of GOP voters are obsessed with politics (or at least politics as the term is defined on Fox News). Extremely engaged Democrats get a fair amount of attention, but there don't seem to be as many of us as there are extremely engaged -- if also extremely misinformed -- Republicans. Sometimes it seems that the entire GOP electorate knows every Fox narrative, whereas many Democrats don't think about politics at all for weeks or months on end. Admittedly, that wasn't true in the Trump years, or in the latter part of the George W. Buah presidency. But it was true in the midterms years 2010 and 2014, and it might be true next year.

Democrats (and swing voters) who are ordinarily apolitical need to get mad, too. They need to get as mad at the anti-public-health Republicans as they were at Bush after Katrina and the failure to find WMDs. They need to get as mad as they got against Trump.

Republicans assume that won't happen. I hope they're wrong -- but there's a serious risk that they're right. Do occasional Democratic voters understand that the only way people like these Tenesseans will stop being empowered is if we all focus on voting out the Republican officeholders who empower and encourage them?


Think about guns. Too many voters have never grasped the culpability of Republicans on gun violence -- even after Sandy Hook and other massacres, people who are open to gun safety measures either continued to vote Republican or didn't turn out to vote against Republicans.

The rest of us need to be as angry as Republicans are -- or at least angry enough to vote them out.

9/11 GAVE US DONALD TRUMP? REALLY?

I respect the journalism of Spencer Ackerman, and I understand that it's presumptuous of me to criticize the thesis of his new book, which I haven't read, based on a review. But the review, by Jennifer Szalai of The New York Times, leaves me quite skeptical. The book is titled Reign of Terror: How the 9/11 Era Destabilized America and Produced Trump; Szalai calls it "discerning and brilliantly argued." She writes:
Ackerman contends that the American response to 9/11 made President Trump possible. The evidence for this blunt-force thesis is presented in “Reign of Terror” with an impressive combination of diligence and verve, deploying Ackerman’s deep stores of knowledge as a national security journalist to full effect....

Ackerman ... shows how Trump clearly understood something about the post-9/11 era that the professional political class did not. Waging endless war — on Afghanistan, on Iraq, on terror — yielded nothing so definitive as peace or victory, and instead simply fueled a “grotesque subtext” to which Trump proved to be remarkably attuned. He may have changed his positions on this or that conflict willy-nilly, but Trump, Ackerman writes, never wavered on one key point — “the perception of nonwhites as marauders, even as conquerors, from hostile foreign civilizations.”
Does Ackerman believe that if 9/11 hadn't happened, Trump wouldn't have been able to sell the notion that Latin American immigrants -- and even American Blacks -- are "marauders"? But right-wing anger at non-whites long predates the 9/11 attacks. The "war" on crime in the pre-9/11 1990s became a war on Black people, and immigration legislation passed in that same era linked crime and border crossing, as an immigration scholar notes:
The 1996 Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act (IIRIRA) was a momentous law that recast undocumented immigration as a crime and fused immigration enforcement with crime control.... Among its most controversial provisions, the law expanded the crimes, broadly defined, for which immigrants could be deported and legal permanent residency status revoked. The law instituted fast-track deportations and mandatory detention for immigrants with convictions. It restricted access to relief from deportation. It constrained the review of immigration court decisions and imposed barriers for filing class action lawsuits against the former US Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS). It provided for the development of biometric technologies to track “criminal aliens” and authorized the former INS to deputize state and local police and sheriff’s departments to enforce immigration law.... In short, it put into law many of the punitive provisions associated with the criminalization of migration today.

Legal scholars have documented the critical role that IIRIRA played in fundamentally transforming immigration enforcement, laying the groundwork for an emerging field of “crimmigration” ...
Ackerman contrasts the treatment of 9/11 terrorism suspects with the treatment of Timothy McVeigh. Szalai writes:
McVeigh was sentenced to death after being tried in an open court, before a jury of his peers. Ackerman invites us to contrast this respect for due process with how the entire machinery of the government transformed itself in response to the 9/11 attacks, with deadly wars, proliferating immigration restrictions and an elaborate apparatus dedicated to mass surveillance.

“When terrorism was white,” Ackerman writes, “America sympathized with principled objections against unleashing the coercive, punitive and violent powers of the state.” He continues: “When terrorism was white, the prospect of criminalizing a large swath of Americans was unthinkable.”
Let's imagine a new wave of McVeigh-level terror attacks by white American radicals of the left, at a time when Republicans control the White House and Congress. Do you think Fox News and The Federalist would stick up for due process? Are you certain that liberal and civil libertarian objections would prevent those leftists from being tortured, if that's what the people in power want?

After 9/11, Szalai writes,
A growing popular disgust with both parties reflected how nativists on one side and progressives on the other understood a truth that centrists elided. The fringes on the right and the left could see how the War on Terror was an extension of the country’s history, Ackerman says, with its settler colonialism and fantasies of a race war; the difference was that the nativist right insisted that settler colonialism was part of what made America great, while the progressive left found it morally despicable. By 2016, nativists were rejoicing at the prospect of Trump pursuing (nonwhite) terrorists without any restraints; progressives wanted the War on Terror abolished.
But the key ingredient in Trump's secret sauce wasn't his willingness to torture foreign terrorists -- it was his rage at undocumented immigrants.

I'm not saying that Ackerman is totally off base here. I just suspect that "9/11 gave us Trump" is the kind of provocatively high-concept idea that gets you a book deal but leaves out a lot of the facts.

Rightists have been casting about for some group to define as the embodiment of pure evil ever since the Berlin Wall fell and communism no longer qualified. For a time in the 1990s, the enemy was "superpredator" criminals -- all assumed to be non-white -- along with the supposedly limp-wristed liberals who were regarded as those criminals' enablers. The 9/11 attacks made Muslims the #1 enemy. But all through this period, right-wing politicians and commentators railed against a large supporting cast of additional enemies: "tax-and-spend, blame-America-first" Democratic politicians, gay people, "feminazis," left-leaning college professors, liberal entertainers, and, always, "illegals." Pat Buchanan called for a border barrier in the 1992 campaign that damaged President George H.W. Bush and may have led to his defeat in November of that year.

The rage was always there, increasingly stoked by right-wing radio and Fox News, and Trump understood it intuitively because, like so many of his voters, he was a poorly informed senior citizen radicalized by Fox.

Ackerman writes about war and defense issues. I'm not sure he quite understands how little most Americans in the post-Cold War era have paid attention to news about other countries, except in the years immediately following 9/11. Yes, angry Americans are angry at Islamicists, but they're mostly angry at enemies closer to home. As Frank Rich used to say, they tuned out the War on Terror many years ago. But they still hate you, me, Nancy Pelosi, "gangbangers" (does anyone other than the right still use that word?), and some eleven-year-old who just crossed the Mexican border. And they would have hated us all whether or not 9/11 happened.

Tuesday, August 10, 2021

THE WRONGEST RIGHT-WING PREDICTIONS ABOUT ANDREW CUOMO

Good riddance to bad rubbish:
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced Tuesday he will resign after a withering report from the state’s attorney general documented multiple accusations of sexual harassment against women.

The decision heads off his almost certain impeachment and conviction in the state Legislature....

Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, a fellow Democrat, will serve the rest of his term when the resignation becomes effective in 14 days. She will become the state's first female governor.
Some right-wingers (the New York Post's Michael Goodwin and National Review's Andrew McCarthy, for instance) correctly predicted that Cuomo wouldn't be able to hang on. But quite a few folks on the right insisted until the end that Cuomo would survive because Democrats protect Democrats -- even though a Democrat produced the report that doomed Cuomo, Democrats vowed to impeach him, and nearly every prominent Democrat in the state demanded his resignation, as did the Democratic president of the United States. Let's look at a few of those predictions.

I told you last week about Ben Shapiro, who said on Fox News a week ago:
The fact that [Attorney General] Letitia James, you know, laid out this enormous case about sexual harassment and sexual pressure and retaliatory work environment and all this, and then she said, "And I'm not going to do anything about it," kind of tells you how this is about to play out....

I actually think what you're about to see from Governor Cuomo is sort of a "wag the mask" situation, in which the Delta variant is used as an excuse for him to push new measures that are really authoritarian in nature, and then he'll be cheered by the press again for not being Ron DeSantis, because there really is a desire by a lot of people out there to be controlled from above....

This will be one news cycle and then gone.
Another Fox regular, Dan Bongino, said this on his radio show:
"I'm not convinced anything is going to happen to Andrew Cuomo at all," he said. "remember if there's even a whisper campaign like there was against Brett Kavanaugh – stories you knew were B.S. – they guy was like a choir boy — he's a Republican so he has to be taken apart."

"Andrew Cuomo is a protected class – he's a Democrat," the Fox News host continued. "He's like a ‘speckle-toothed owl’" he added, creating a mock name for rare species of wildlife often utilized to prevent commercial or agricultural activity on certain lands.
Townhall rage addict Kurt Schlichter tweeted this just after the AG's report appeared:



Kyle Smith of National Review predicted that criticism from the mayor of New York, a frequent Cuomo antagonist, was not a sign that Cuomo would leave. To the contrary:


Smith really bet the rent money on Cuomo's survival. His immediate response to the AG report was this National Review post:
Cuomo Won't Go

I’ve made bad predictions before, but I don’t see Andrew Cuomo showing himself to the door just because the state AG issued an exhaustive report confirming what we have known since last winter: Cuomo is a shameless serial sexual harasser. If he were a low-level executive at any reputable company, he’d be fired. If he were a CEO, he’d be fired. Alas, though, Cuomo can’t be fired, except via a glacial impeachment process. Which he will delay as long as he can in order to blunt the effect of today’s report. If you are sufficiently brazen — and there just isn’t anybody more brazen, not even Bill Clinton — you can just ignore the heat and tough it out.
Yesterday afternoon, Smith was defending this position:
I think Cuomo is so shameless that he will never resign unless he is guaranteed to be removed via impeachment. I see the walls closing in with such deliberate speed that they will not close this month and maybe not ever. I think the key figures are betting that if they can drag this thing out for four weeks or so, we’ll be into the fall, at which point they can argue, “Look, there’s an election a year away. Let’s let the voters decide.” Cuomo, should he just brazen it out, could be reelected by double digits next year. Do you really think he wants to let Bill de Blasio win?
(I don't know where Smith gets the idea that de Blasio could become governor -- he's not even popular in his own city. And why do people -- not just right-wingers -- insist that CEOs who sexually harass are invariably fired? They're the least likely harassers to be fired, or even caught.)

Twitchy collected some choice predictions under the headline "Don’t hold your breath for Andrew Cuomo to face any consequences after investigation concludes that he sexually harassed all those women."



(Shanker has written for National Review and The American Spectator.)

Is that our evil plan? We kick Anthony Weiner, Al Franken, and Eric Schneiderman to the curb, but we spare the executives? (I'm sure that would be news to Eliot Spitzer.)

Many of these people are fixated on the survival of Virginia governor Ralph Northam. But Northam's sin was the wearing of blackface in his early twenties, and he survived in large part because polls showed that African-Americans were willing to let it go. The only way the comparison makes sense is if you ignore the fact that serial sexual harassment and assault is a far worse offense. But to Republicans, the morality is irrelevant -- Democrats should be brought low, and that's all that matters.

Well, today that happened to a Democrat who deserved it -- and deserved it much more than Ralph Northam did. Democrats didn't protect Cuomo. If that's unimaginable to you, maybe you should reconsider your mental caricature of Democrats.

DO GOP VOTERS ACTUALLY WANT SOCIETY TO COLLAPSE?

Yesterday, The Washington Post's Paul Waldman wrote this about Florida governor Ron DeSantis, whose state is on track to have a million additional COVID cases by the end of September (at the current rate of well over 20,000 a day):
... more than any other Republican, DeSantis may have cracked the code of how to position oneself to lead the GOP in a new era....

Any politician can be an Internet troll concerned with nothing so much as Owning the Libs.... But to really capture the hearts of the party base, you have to show your willingness to do actual harm to people’s lives as you wage war against the other side. And that’s where DeSantis is excelling.

... DeSantis signed a law nullifying local public health measures and banning private companies from requiring customers to show proof of vaccination....

And in an escalating battle with local officials, he instructed school districts not to require masks and even threatened to withhold funding from any district that does so.

... the fact that Florida has become Delta Ground Zero has apparently only increased DeSantis’s determination to allow covid to continue spreading. He knows full well that at gatherings of Republicans the crowd cheers any mention of low vaccination rates.
I thought of that when I read this press release from Texas governor Greg Abbott, who shares DeSantis's determination to encourage the spread of the virus:
Governor Greg Abbott today announced a series of actions the State of Texas is taking to mitigate the recent rise in COVID-19 cases in Texas. The Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) will be utilizing staffing agencies to provide medical personnel from out-of-state to Texas health care facilities to assist in COVID-19 operations. The Governor has also sent a letter to the Texas Hospital Association asking hospitals to voluntarily postpone elective medical procedures, for which a delay will not result in loss of life or the deterioration of a patient's condition, in order to increase hospital capacity for COVID-19 patients.
Texas's healthcare system is so overtaxed that the state wants elective surgeries postponed and is recruiting medical personnel from out of state. This comes six months after Texas experienced a days-long power crisis, in which more than 4 million people lost power and at least 210 died. And yet many of the reforms that could prevent this from happening again won't be implemented:
After the blackout, analysts at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said one simple way to build resilience into the natural gas supply chain would be to mandate weatherization of new gas wells built in Texas.

... the state Legislature failed to act on that recommendation.

Other major proposals that might help safeguard the grid in both winter and in summer hardly received a hearing....

Suggestions to encourage power plants to have emergency backup fuel were rarely discussed. Bills to increase energy efficiency standards to relieve pressure on the grid were voted down. A proposal to back up the Texas grid by connecting it to other parts of the country was also not addressed.
Despite all this, it seems quite likely that Abbott will win reelection next year, as will the Republican majority in the legislature. In Florida, one poll shows a potential DeSantis opponent leading the governor (barely), but another recent poll shows DeSantis cruising to victory again.

So I'm wondering whether Republican voters actually like the societal breakdown they're experiencing under DeSantis and Abbott. Are they invigorated by it the way they seem to have been invigorated by the failed pandemic response of Donald Trump last year? (Recall that they responded to Trump's COVID failures by giving him the second-highest vote total of any presidential candidate in history.)

Much of right-wing culture is organized around the notion of a breakdown in society. Nearly every story on Fox and other right-wing cable news outlets is built on the premise that if allowed to go unchecked, this -- whatever it is -- will destroy civilization as we know it. Migrant border crossings, urban crime, teaching about racism in the schools, and even the election of Democrats to public office -- all of it is supposed to lead to chaos, lawlessness, and anarchy. Many right-wingers are doomsday preppers. Even more of them are gun owners who've persuaded themselves that they own firearms not because they like them (the real reason), but because they expect to need them someday to fend off marauding bands of MS-13 gang members or "urban thugs" from Chicago -- or their own government.

If you think this way, after a while it seems you might want society to break down. It would confirm your priors. It would feed your cosplay fantasies of someday being an armed hero or a grizzled survivor in a world gone mad. And besides, you've invested so much in the theory that the Democrat Party wants to take your guns and give your vote and your country to transgender Mexican fentanyl-dealing Marxists -- it would really suck if you were wrong after all these years.

So as long as they're not personally on ventilators in ICUs, and as long as they don't personally freeze to death because Texas utilities won't winterize equipment, I think Republicans like the failings of their politician heroes. What's happening in Florida and Texas seems bad, but it would have to be a lot worse before DeSantis and Abbott fans stopped enjoying it.

Monday, August 09, 2021

THEY COULD EVEN BOTHSIDES DESANTIS, BUT THEY WON'T, BECAUSE THEY CAN'T QUIT HIM

Eric Boehlert is right:
The press needs to address its DeSantis debacle

As Covid rages on in Florida, turning the Sunshine State not only into a virus epicenter of the United States but of the entire world, news organizations aren’t being honest about the public health crisis under Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis. They’re not being transparent about how months ago they embraced GOP spin and portrayed the derelict governor as a pandemic star, regurgitating conservative rhetoric about how liberal critics had been proven wrong about DeSantis’ wrong-headed policy decisions, which have since propelled Florida into a grave health crisis.

The state recently broke its one-day record for new Covid cases, topping out at 21,000 which is as many new cases as the entire country of France tabulates each day.
(Boehlert wrote this late last week. Today the number was 28,317.)
... the political press is terrible at conceding its mistakes, especially when those blunders are documented by liberals.

... This spring, journalists eagerly touted DeSantis’ supposed virus leadership— it was Politico that announced, “How Ron DeSantis Won the Pandemic.” ...

"After a year of criticism by health experts, mockery from comedians and blistering critiques from political rivals, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is standing unabashedly tall among the nation's governors on the front lines of the coronavirus fight," CNN cheered, adding that DeSantis remained "defiant and combative.” ...

“Vindication for Ron DeSantis,” the Wall Street Journal announced. The New York Times cheered, “In a country just coming out of the morose grip of coronavirus lockdowns, Florida feels unmistakably hot.”

Not one of those news outlets, that I’ve seen or heard, has addressed its glowing DeSantis coverage, or explained to news consumers how and why newsrooms rushed in to paint the Republican as a Covid savior, only to watch the state now grapple with a man-made crisis.
What's remarkable is that a reassessment of the press's glowing DeSantis coverage could be shoehorned into the "both sides" template the media loves so much. The press also treated Democrat Andrew Cuomo as a pandemic savior, even as he was covering up nursing home deaths and sexually harassing and assaulting women in his office. This is a perfect opportunity for a bipartisan mea culpa. Were we too quick to make heroes of both of these flawed leaders?

But that won't happen, because the press still regards DeSantis as a growth stock. The press really wants someone like DeSantis for the future -- someone who isn't Donald Trump but who, like Trump, seems undamaged by scandals, even self-inflicted ones, that would sink other politicians. Maybe "growth stock" isn't the right metaphor; the press seems to regard DeSantis as a sexy daredevil. (He can't possibly escape from this ... can he? YES, HE CAN!)

So unless he loses his reelection bid next year -- some polls suggest he's vulnerable, others don't -- he'll get a pass for everything he does. The press is now conditioned to admire politicians who are monsters, if they get away with it, precisely because they get away with it. The more monstrous the behavior DeSantis gets away with, the more exciting he seems. The fact that lives are in the balance doesn't matter to the media.

NO, ANTIFA IN PORTLAND DIDN'T BREAK UP A HARMLESS LITTLE WORSHIP SERVICE THIS WEEKEND

Here's the headline of a story your right-wing relatives are eagerly following:
BREAKING: Antifa assault families and children at Christian prayer event in Portland park
That's from a conservative site called the Post Millennial. The story has been picked up by Fox News, under the headline
Portland sees Antifa descend on Christian worship event, clash with Proud Boys in streets
The message is here is that this was a mere "Christian worship event," and evil lefty thugs broke it up. According to the Post Millennial,
A large group of Antifa carrying shields and melee weapons attacked a group of Evangelical Christians congregating for a prayer and worship event at the waterfront in downtown Portland, Ore. Video recorded at the scene showed children and families running away as black-clad Antifa militants tore apart the sound equipment and assaulted attendees with pepper spray and projectiles.
The video is from the right-wing propagandist Andy Ngo. To be fair, it does appear to show an effort to "attack & shut down" the gathering.


But the gathering wasn't a simple prayer meeting. It was led by Artur Pawlowski, a Polish-born, anti-LGBT Canadian preacher who's become notorious back home for defying public health measures during the pandemic:
Calgary’s Street Church met again Saturday in violation of public health orders, two weeks after police arrested its pastor for organizing the illegal gatherings.

Church pastor Artur Pawlowski was arrested May 8 and charged with organizing an illegal in-person gathering as well as “requesting, inciting or inviting others” to join. His brother, Dawid Pawlowski, was also arrested and faces the same charges.

Despite the arrests, worship groups have continued to congregate at the southeast Calgary church....
Pawlowski's church is reported to be hostile to its neighbors:
Community members living near Street Church say preacher Artur Pawlowski and his followers have threatened neighbours with violence after speaking out against the congregation’s disregard for public health measures and hateful rhetoric....

Neighbours told Postmedia they have been subject to menacing threats of physical violence, warnings of property damage and littering by churchgoers. They also voiced concern about excessive noise and fear of contracting COVID-19.
Pawlowski is on an American tour -- though why he was allowed into the country, I'm not sure. The tour is being promoted here by a Colorado-based group called FEC United.



"FEC" stands for Faith, Education, and Commerce -- the three pillars of society, according to the group. The leader of FEC United, Joe Oltmann, was responsible for the (preposterous) rumor that Eric Coomer of Dominion Voting Systems spoke with Antifa members and assured them that Donald Trump wouldn't win the 2020 election; the spread of this rumor subjected Coomer and his family to death threats and doxxing. But even before the election, Oltmann was dangerous. This is from October:
At an event yesterday intended to showcase the candidates whom the new conservative political group FEC United is supporting, founder Joe Oltmann threatened to dox journalists who report negatively about the group.

Oltmann claims FEC United has identified Antifa members “that are actually journalists writing stories about us.”

“I’ll put them on billboards,” he told the crowd of Republican candidates and supporters, which took place at Bandimere Speedway in Morrison. “We’re coming for you... If you’re part of the media and you write something bad about us, better take your byline off it.”
Saturday's event seems unpleasant, as a local news outlet describes it:
Dozens of black-clad counter-protesters pushed into the right-wing band, hurling smoke grenades and appearing to dismantle part of the public address system, spurring Portland Police Bureau squad cars onto the grass under the mid-day sun. The right-wing group marched to....

... soon a dozen or so counter-protesters trickled over to the memorial, leading to shouting matches.

After 90 minutes or so, the religious event concluded. But those standing guard around the event — armed with paintball guns, batons and other weapons — were forced out of the park by the counter-demonstrators, who unleashed a blast of pepper spray a few blocks away. Right-wingers fired a paintball gun in response, while a Portland Police squad car whooped its siren to no effect just a few feet away.
But on social media Saturday evening, Pawlowski seem unfazed:



Well, he got what he wanted -- publicity and martyrdom -- didn't he? He'll be in Aiken, South Carolina, on August 22. Be there!

Sunday, August 08, 2021

MY UNPOPULAR OPINION: DON'T GIVE THEM AMMUNITION

I have positive feelings about Barack Obama, but maybe his scaled-back but still supersized birthday party wasn't the greatest idea while the Delta variant continues to rage, not when the right-wing media is eager to leap on anything that looks like Democratic COVID hypocrisy. The New York Post has already pounced:
Rapper Trap Beckham and manager TJ Chapman discreetly snapped pics of the event’s high-end food, drink and swag offerings and talked to their followers as the party unfolded, according to screenshots of the posts, which were later deleted under the event’s photography ban....




... By 1 a.m., the “scaled-down” shindig had officially petered out, as throngs of famous guests and workers clogged the roads of small-town Oak Bluffs, creating a “s–t show” of traffic congestion on the resort island, police said.

Steven Spielberg, Tom Hanks, George Clooney, Jennifer Hudson, Jay-Z, Beyoncé, Bradley Cooper, Don Cheadle, Gabrielle Union, Dwyane Wade, Bruce Springsteen Erykah Badu, Steven Colbert and John Kerry were just some of the celebrity guests at the seaside affair.
I get it. He was president. He has a lot of famous friends. It was his 60th birthday, and the books he and his wife have written are genuine blockbusters that made the two of them a lot of money.

I also know that even the larger party that was originally planned was intended to be as safe as possible:
Among the safety measures said to be put in place: The party will be held outdoors and all guests are asked to be vaccinated. Invitees also must submit their negative test results to a COVID-coordinator within a certain time window before the event.
But when opponents of public health are looking for any evidence that advocates are bad people, why make it easy for them? Why hand them the opportunity to make "Maskless Obama" a trending topic on social media?

I don't know why it's so hard for Democrats in politics (or recently retired from politics) to model good behavior on COVID. Right-wingers eagerly compile lists of people they call "COVID hypocrites" -- just before Obama, there was D.C. mayor Muriel Bowser going maskless at an indoor wedding reception shortly after she reinstated a city mask mandate. When California governor Gavin Newsom was seen indoors at an expensive restaurant dinner with lobbyists last November, it reportedly jumpstarted a moribund recall effort than now threatens to remove him from office before his term ends.

I know that a lot of Democrats like the fact that Barack Obama and the previous Democratic president enjoy living the good life. Bill Clinton also wrote a massively successful memoir which brought in a lot of cash, and he jet-sets around with rich friends, too. And I know that the unsuccessful Democratic presidential nominee before Clinton, Mike Dukakis, was attacked as a prissy virtue-signaler because he didn't have swagger and rode public transportation to work when he was governor. (I saw him once, on a Green Line trolley from Brookline.)

But the dominant message of right-wingers today is that their Democratic enemies are "elitists" who have contempt for ordinary Americans. I realize that these people are hypocrites themselves -- they love an ex-president who lives in gilded pseudo-splendor, and they hang on every word uttered by a preppy heir to a frozen food fortune. Still, why give them ammunition? Why confirm the suspicions they're trying to spread that we're not really worried about the virus and its variants -- we just want to create a pandemic panic as a means of social control? I know we'll never persuade the hardcore right that our concerns are sincere and justified, but how many people on the fence do we lose -- people who are middle-of-the-road or apolitical, but who live in the parts of America where right-wing news is the mainstream?

Not every ex-president can be Jimmy Carter. But what if Obama had canceled his party and decided to be Carter for one day? He could have spent his birthday encouraging vaccination, maybe in a community where people are vaccine-hesitant rather than vaccine-opposed. Perhaps he could have told all the famous invitees to cancel their flights to Martha's Vineyard and do something similar on his behalf.

We're serious about the pandemic -- but I wish some of the most famous among us would spend a bit more time walkng the walk.