Thursday, May 21, 2020

IF TRUMP LOSES IN NOVEMBER, COULD HE TAKE FOX NEWS DOWN WITH HIM?

The president of the United States -- laser-focused on America's most pressing problems as usual -- just tweeted this a little while ago:




I think a Trump loss in November is far from certain -- but it seems clear that he's worried. He's lining up scapegoats in case he's defeated. (Obviously he won't bear any of the blame, in his opinion.) Fox is definitely on the scapegoat list -- and it seems possible that Trump is planning to turn One America News Network, a portion of which might be on the verge of being purchased by investors linked to Donald Trump Jr., into a rival for Fox after a defeat.

So if we beat Trump, will Fox lose a portion of its audience, at Trump's urging?

Some Trumpers seem prepared to abandon Fox, if they haven't already.





Or perhaps it's more likely that Trump is trying to browbeat Fox into providing him even more fawning coverage than usual prior to the election. If he loses, he might be too busy crying about "voter fraud!!!" to blame Fox.

But assuming he actually does leave office, he's likely to give Fox some of the blame , and his fan base will probably do the same. If it means that lunatic OANN becomes more powerful, maybe it's not much of a trade-off, but if Trump's scapegoating does real damage to Fox, that will be very satisfying.

AMERICA'S RIGHT WING ISN'T UNIVERSALLY ANTI-VAXX -- YET

In The Washington Post, Isaac Stanley-Becker reports on the opposition to a future COVID-19 vaccine:
Some of the same online activists who have clamored to resume economic activity, echoing President Trump’s call to “liberate” their states from sweeping restrictions, are now aligning themselves with a cause on the political fringe — preemptively forswearing a vaccine. To further their baseless claims about the dangers of vaccines and to portray the scientific process as reckless, they have seized on the brisk pace promised for the project, which the Trump administration has branded “Operation Warp Speed.”
But, naturally, they don't think Trump is the real villain.
One participant in a 2,000-member reopening group on Facebook suggested Trump was “pandering to the left” by speeding a vaccine to market....

“I would take Trump’s hydroxychloroquine ... before I would be vaccinated by the left’s new covid-19 vaccine!” read a meme posted Tuesday in a pro-Trump Facebook group with more than 82,000 members.
I know that there are anti-vaxxers who regard themselves as liberals or moderates, but I wonder it's only a matter of time before vaccine skepticism becomes an essential part of being a right-winger in good standing.

We're not there yet, but Tucker Carlson hosted a segment last night that had a little something for both skeptics and believers.
Harvard Law professor emeritus Alan Dershowitz joined "Tucker Carlson Tonight" Wednesday to discuss the constitutionality of forcing members of the public to be vaccinated against the coronavirus, should a vaccine become available.

Host Tucker Carlson began the segment by acknowledging the argument that people "don't have a right to endanger other people, your right to punch ends at the tip of my nose" before asking Dershowitz whether "the government has a right to endanger" people who may have an adverse reaction to a vaccine by forcing them to take it.

"The Supreme Court has said yes, and if the case came to the Supreme Court today, they would say yes, it would either be 9-0 or 8-1," Dershowitz responded. "It is not a debatable issue constitutionally. Look, they have a right to draft you and put your life in danger to help the country. The police power of the state is very considerable."

Dershowitz added that he agrees with the "moral argument" that no one should be subject to vaccine that has not been fully vetted on the chance it could help other people and noted that he wouldn't want people to submit to a vaccine unless it is proven safe.

"If the vaccine is extremely safe, then the state does have the right to tell you to take it," he said....

"I don't believe you have a right to be Typhoid Mary and spread it."
Here's the segment:



If you watch it, you'll see that both Carlson and Dershowitz acknowledge the value of vaccines. But they also linger on the notion that vaccines can be risky, and that mandating a vaccine is government power at its most heavy-handed. The segment is punctuated by scaremongering chyrons such as DERSHOWITZ: THE STATE HAS THE POWER TO LITERALLY PLUNGE A NEEDLE INTO YOUR ARM. Carlson, summarizing Dershowitz's opinion, says: "If the government wants to, the government has the the right to seize you and inject the vaccine by force." Carlson grants that he'd be fine with an eventual coronavirus vaccine that "proved to be very safe," but he insists that "there is so much lying about vaccines, probably on all sides, but there certainly is lying about vaccines, because public health authorities don't want people -- you know, they want the people to take them. And I get it. But people are nervous."

Carlson knows which way his audience is heading on this subject. He's not all the way to skepticism yet, and maybe he'll never get there. But will he? Could conservative media and crazies on Facebook pull the right all the way to full-on vaccine denialism?

Unlike climate denialism, anti-vaxx sentiment doesn't line rich people's pockets. There's no equivalent of the fossil fuel industry to push the right over the edge on this question.

But maybe Russian propaganda operations are acting as force multipliers for the anti-vaxxers. Or maybe anti-vaxx sentiment will just continue to spread as a byproduct of the Reopen movement, which expanded because of the efforts of the plutocracy (and will need to continue when there are now COVID-19 outbreaks).

Think of the Reopen protests as an animal market, and think of increased vaccine skepticism as a virus that the rich Reopen backers didn't know was present in the market stalls.

Wednesday, May 20, 2020

IF TRUMP TRIES TO OVERTURN DEMOCRACY, HE WON'T ACT ALONE

The president is attempting to use extortion to prevent vote-by-mail.
President Donald Trump mischaracterized Michigan's absentee ballot policies on Wednesday while threatening federal funding to the state if election officials there do not retreat from measures meant to facilitate mail-in voting....

“Breaking: Michigan sends absentee ballots to 7.7 million people ahead of Primaries and the General Election,” Trump tweeted. “This was done illegally and without authorization by a rogue Secretary of State. I will ask to hold up funding to Michigan if they want to go down this Voter Fraud path!” ...

The president's tweets inaccurately described a recent policy change in Michigan, where Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, a Democrat, announced Tuesday that all of the state’s 7.7 million registered voters would be mailed absentee ballot applications for the August down-ballot primaries and November general election — not a ballot directly....

The president similarly threatened Nevada later Wednesday morning, tweeting: “State of Nevada ‘thinks’ that they can send out illegal vote by mail ballots, creating a great Voter Fraud scenario for the State and the U.S. They can’t! If they do, ‘I think’ I can hold up funds to the State. Sorry, but you must not cheat in elections.”
So we're talking again about Trump's likely reaction to an election in November that doesn't turn out the way he wants it to. Jamelle Bouie reassures us in a Twitter thread that, yes, Trump might threaten not to accept a loss, but there's not much he can do.



I think that's the wrong way of framing the issue. It won't be just Trump contesting the election results between November and January -- it'll be his entire support network, starting with Fox News. Fox didn't seriously argue for the overturning of election results in 2008 and 2012, but this time will probably be different. The right regards vote-by-mail -- at least in contested states won by Democrats -- as voter fraud by definition. A Democratic win in any vote-by-mail swing state will automatically be declared fraudulent.

If Trump wins Michigan or Nevada, there'll be relentless calls on Fox to challenge the Democratic electors' right to vote in the Electoral College, and those challenges will be taken seriously by Republicans at the state level. In previous years, Republicans in Washington have treated such calls as boob-bait, useful for the building of party unity against the Democrats, but not for much more. This time, I think Mitch McConnell, Lindsey Graham, and others might insist that voter fraud allegations need to be taken very, very seriously. They'll also undoubtedly look for reasons to question Senate pickups by the Democrats.

I don't know if they can persuade much of America that the election was fraudulent. But at the very least, they can reframe the narrative so that the media begins describing Joe Biden's ascension to the presidency as accompanied by a "legitimacy crisis" -- even if, unlike Trump in 2016 and George W. Bush in 2000, Biden has won a clear victoory in both the Electoral College and the poular vote.

Bouie is right when he says that any effort by Trump to cling to power after Inauguration Day will run afoul of the Constitution. But this doesn't reassure me:



No, the Joint Chiefs wouldn't barricade the White House on Trump's orders. You know who might? The same kinds of people who stormed the Michigan state house with open-carry AR-15s. If that happens, no Republican officeholder in D.C. will be outraged -- well, maybe Mitt Romney will say it's regrettable -- and the press, including the mainstream media, will portray it as a popular uprising, rather than the an uprising stirred up by sinister right-wing influencers.

All this might still end with Joe Biden being sworn in on schedule. But everyone in official Washington will agree that he's being sworn in "under a cloud." And that alone will be a win for the right.

THAT GOAT WON'T SCAPE

The headline to this Politico story is "Anti-China Sentiment Is on the Rise," but the numbers suggest that it's not a rise to a very high level.
Since January, the percentage of U.S. voters who say China is an “enemy” has risen 11 percentage points to 31 percent, while the percentage of voters who say China is either an ally or friend has fallen 9 points to a combined 23 percent, a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll shows. The 30 percent who say China is unfriendly but not an enemy has held about constant in the past five months.

For all the negativity, U.S. voters, by a 28-point margin, favor working with China to respond to the coronavirus instead of confronting the country aggressively.
So after all the coronavirus scapegoating by President Trump and Secretary Pompeo, all the supposedly devastating Trump ads linking Joe Biden to China, all the conspiracy talk on in the fever swamps, this line of attack works on ... less than a third of the country? Most of whom are Republicans who were already certain to vote for Trump?
Republicans are the most critical of China, with 55 percent saying the U.S. should hold China accountable even at the expense of cooperation on the coronavirus. Only 25 percent of independents and 12 percent of Democrats agree with this view....

The 31 percent of voters who see China as an enemy includes 47 percent of Republicans, 28 percent of independents and 20 percent of Democrats.
In fact, Trump doesn't even have a polling advantage on the issue of China.
According to the Morning Consult poll, the two [presidential] candidates are essentially tied on the question of who is trusted more to handle relations with China: 40 percent favored Biden and 38 percent favored Trump, a result well within the error margin.
The political press often reports on Trump campaign tactics as if they're surefire winners. This one hasn't been effective.

The coronavirus is here. Obsessing now over the role of China in spreading the virus is like refusing to fight the fire at a burning house until you've caught an arson suspect who might not even be guilty. What the virus is doing to us now is the problem. It looks as if Americans understand that.

Tuesday, May 19, 2020

IF YOU DON'T KNOW ABOUT MIS-C YET, YOU WILL SOON

I'm reading the CNN coronavirus updates and I see that a red state wants kids to graduate in person:
In-person graduation ceremonies with gatherings of large groups of people could begin as early as next Friday, South Carolina Superintendent of Education Molly Spearman said.

Spearman, speaking at a reopening task force meeting, said that she and Gov. Henry McMaster felt that "it is a special ceremony; they can be held."
"It is left up to the individual district," she said. "They can do that virtually or in person. And many high schools across the state are having in-person graduation ceremonies limiting the guests to two per senior or sometimes four, depending on the size of the high school graduating class."
This is happening because we think young people aren't particularly likely to get sick from the coronavirus.

Except, as we see from several other stories in the CNN update, the virus does make young people sick:
A Mississippi state official reported Tuesday the first case of a child with multisystem inflammatory syndrome.

The child is from central Mississippi and had tested positive for Covid-19. The child has recovered and been discharged from the hospital, State Health Officer Dr. Thomas Dobbs said.

*****

The Virginia Department of Health is reporting the state’s first confirmed case of multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) associated with Covid-19.

According to the Department of Health, the child was hospitalized on May 5 and has since been discharged. The child is now recovering at home.

Most children with MIS-C have fever lasting several days and may show symptoms of irritability or decreased activity, abdominal pain without another explanation, diarrhea, vomiting, rash, conjunctivitis, lack of appetite, red or cracked lips, red or bumpy tongue, or swollen hands and feet, the health department said.
These kids are recovering, so this syndrome can't be too bad, right? Although the did need to be hospitalized....

But here's another story in that CNN newsfeed:
Young people who may have multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children, or MIS-C, a troubling complication of Covid-19 infection, need immediate attention and will probably need to be hospitalized, doctors said Tuesday.

Symptoms do not look like the classic symptoms of coronavirus and may mostly include stomach pain and vomiting, along with fever and perhaps a rash, the experts told other doctors on a briefing organized by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

It’s becoming clear that many of the children with the new syndrome have damage to their hearts and need immediate treatment, the experts told the briefing....
And then you turn to this New York Times story and the syndrome starts to seem really alarming.
When a sprinkling of a reddish rash appeared on Jack McMorrow’s hands in mid-April, his father figured the 14-year-old was overusing hand sanitizer....

When Jack’s parents noticed that his eyes looked glossy, they attributed it to late nights of video games and TV.

When he developed a stomachache and didn’t want dinner, “they thought it was because I ate too many cookies or whatever,” said Jack, a ninth grader in Woodside, Queens....

But over the next 10 days, Jack felt increasingly unwell. His parents consulted his pediatricians in video appointments and took him to a weekend urgent care clinic. Then, one morning, he awoke unable to move.

He had a tennis-ball-size lymph node, raging fever, racing heartbeat and dangerously low blood pressure. Pain deluged his body in “a throbbing, stinging rush,” he said.

“You could feel it going through your veins and it was almost like someone injected you with straight-up fire,” he said.

Jack, who was previously healthy, was hospitalized with heart failure that day, in a stark example of the newly discovered severe inflammatory syndrome linked to the coronavirus that has already been identified in about 200 children in the United States and Europe and killed several.
Jack's illness was not mild:
Jack arrived at the children’s hospital so feverish that his father was “washing me down with ice-cold water and it only felt like a tingle,” he said.

His resting heart rate was 165 beats per minute, about twice as high as normal, as his heart struggled to compensate for his alarmingly low blood pressure, which was hampering its ability to circulate blood and supply his vital organs with oxygen and nutrients.

This condition is a form of heart failure called cardiogenic shock, and Jack’s was “pretty severe,” said Dr. Steven Kernie, chief of pediatric critical care medicine at the hospital and Columbia University.

... blood vessels throughout his body were inflamed, a condition called vasculitis, so the vessels’ muscles were “not controlling blood flow as well as they should,” Dr. Kernie said.

Doctors also suspected that the heart was inflamed, known as myocarditis, which in untreated serious cases can cause lasting damage.
Jack nearly died. Three young New Yorkers already have died from this.

You'll be hearing more and more about MIS-C. But your right-wing relatives won't be moved -- they'll conclude that this is an attempt by liberals to regain the totalitarian control they believe we desperately seek at all times, and which they're convinced they wrested from us with their reopening demands.

They'll also seize on a detail noted in one of the CNN stories:
[Experts] believe it’s increasingly clear that Covid-19 is involved, even though many of the children test negative for the virus and never seemed to have had symptoms of infection.
Jack McMorrow from the New York Times story initially tested negative for the virus, then tested positive. We're told:
Jack’s positive coronavirus test was a clue, but others with similar symptoms had negative diagnostic test results.... The doctors then decided to check the other children for evidence of the coronavirus with a different test, one for antibodies, which signal they had an earlier, no-longer-active infection. Most children ended up having either a positive diagnostic or antibody test result.
This nasty virus is clearly doing serious harm to some young people. I hope we don't have to beg half the country to believe that this is a consequence of the pandemic, and that it's a serious problem.

TRUMP IS JEALOUS OF THE VACCINE

Many people think the president's announcement yesterday that he's taking hydroxychloroquine was a brilliant act of media manipulation. Josh Barro disagrees:



Barro is right. Even though polls show that voters still give Trump relatively high marks on his economic management despite the current downturn, he's staked his entire reelection campaign on hopes for a fast recovery -- but then when the markets rally, he steps all over the good news. Why?

In part, I think he was trying to change the subject from Mike Pompeo and a fired inspector general. But I also think he was trying to reclaim the news cycle from Moderna, the Massachusetts biotech company that announced positive results in tests of a possible COVID-19 vaccine yesterday.

Even apart from Trump's hydroxychloroquine revelation, he seemed to be acting as if Moderna's announcement stole the spotlight that should have been rightfully his. This also happened, as reported by The Independent:
Donald Trump on Monday teased – though vague – "big announcements" soon on both a coronavirus vaccine and drugs to treat those that contract the virus, calling such therapeutics "more important" because they have an "immediate" effect.

The president appeared to be reacting to Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel telling investors on Monday that a potential Covid-19 vaccine is showing promise in testing....

Mr Trump, during a meeting with restaurant industry executives said Monday has been "a very big day cure-wise and therapeutic-wise." But he did not give more specifics about the timing of any announcements; he frequently teases such revelations in "two weeks" or "a few weeks," sometimes with no explanation when he does not make an announcement for weeks or months after, if at all.
Is he aware of any real breakthroughs in therapeutics? Is he just determined to announce that hydroxychloroquine is a helpful treatment? And while good treatments could come sooner than a virus and are thus desperately needed, it's absurd to say that they're "more important" than a vaccine would be.

So instead of being the president who got to announce proudly that a U.S.-based firm is making progress on a vaccine, he said that he has the real big news, though he can't tell is what it is yet.

Recall that Moderna's CEO featured in one of Trump's more humiliating moments during this crisis.
During a press opportunity on March 2, a dozen biotech company executives joined President Donald Trump around the same wooden table where his cabinet meets.

As each took a turn saying what they could add to the fight against the spreading coronavirus, Trump was interested in knowing exactly how soon a countermeasure might be ready.

But only one presenter—Stéphane Bancel, the CEO of Moderna Pharmaceuticals in Cambridge, Massachusetts—could say that just weeks into the outbreak his company had already delivered a candidate vaccine into the hands of the government for testing.

“So you are talking over the next few months you think you could have a vaccine?” Trump said, looking impressed.
Then came the clarification Trump didn't want to hear:
"Correct, (for) phase two (testing)," Bancel answered.

[Dr. Anthony] Fauci interjected: "He wouldn't have a vaccine. He'd have a vaccine to go into testing."

Trump said: "Oh, so you're talking in about a year."

Fauci said: "A year to a year and a half."

The President said that one executive was "talking about two months."

But Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar clarified that Regeneron, a biotechnology company that was represented in the room, would be ready for phase one testing for a vaccine in two months.

Leonard Schleifer, the CEO of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, then underscored that "vaccines have to be tested because there's precedent for vaccines to actually make diseases worse. ... You don't want to rush and treat a million people and find out you're making 900,000 of them worse."
This is why Trump was downplaying vaccines last week:
President Donald Trump said the U.S. will overcome the coronavirus crisis with or without an effective vaccine, saying that the disease will “go away at some point” either way.

“We think we’re going to have a vaccine in the pretty near future, and if we do we’re going to really be a big step ahead,” Trump told a reporter Friday at a White House event detailing U.S. efforts to develop a vaccine.

“And if we don’t, we’re going to be like so many other cases where you had a problem come in, it’ll go away at some point, it’ll go away,” Trump said. “It may flare up and it may not flare up, we’ll have to see what happens, but if it does flare up we’re going to put out the fire and we’ll put it out quickly and efficiently. We’ve learned a lot.”

The president had been asked about his comments earlier in the event, when he said, “Vaccine or no vaccine, we’re back. And we’re starting the process. In many cases, they don’t have vaccines and a virus or a flu comes and you fight through it.”
Vaccines are annoying! They take too long! Trump is running for reelection now!

So I think he made his hydroxychloroquine announcement in large part because he didn't want to be upstaged by some damn biotech company that will insist on safety and effectiveness testing of a vaccine even if it continues past November.

Monday, May 18, 2020

MY GUESS: TRUMP THINKS HE'S TAKING HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE (updated)

Washington is talking about Mike Pompeo and the inspector general who was fired for investigating him, so President Trump decided to regain control of the news cycle:
President Donald Trump said Monday that he is taking a malaria drug to lessen symptoms should he get the new coronavirus, even though the drug is unproven for fighting COVID-19.

Trump told reporters he has been taking the drug, hydroxychloroquine, and a zinc supplement daily “for about a week and a half now.” Trump spent weeks pushing the drug as a potential cure for COVID-19 against the cautionary advice of many of his administration’s top medical professionals.
Trump might simply be lying about this -- he knows that the announcement will be headline-grabbing, and he knows that advocating hydroxychloroquine is an effective way of needling the libs.

But he was elected president because he's exactly like the Fox-watching voters to whom he appeals. They're all in on hydroxychloroquine. They sing its praises at Free Republic and in Gateway Pundit comments sections. Why wouldn't Trump be just as persuaded of its value as a COVID-19 cure-all? Democrats hate it! It must be good!

But is he really taking it?
Trump said his doctor did not recommend the drug to him, but he requested it from the White House physician.

“I started taking it, because I think it’s good,” Trump said. “I’ve heard a lot of good stories.”

The Food and Drug Administration warned health professionals last month that the drug should not be used outside of hospital or research settings, due to sometimes fatal side effects. Regulators issued the alert after receiving reports of heart-rhythm problems, including deaths, from poison control centers and other health providers.
Trump's doctors haven't been honest and forthcoming about his health, but it was revealed in 2018 that he has cardiovascular issues.
On Tuesday, White House physician Dr. Ronny Jackson disclosed Trump's basic labs measurements [and] physical exam results.... Although it was not part of the official medical records that were released yesterday, after further questioning, Jackson also revealed that Trump underwent a coronary calcium CT scan as part of his routine physical exam.

His score is 133, and anything over 100 indicates plaque is present and that the patient has heart disease.

... a new score of 133 reveals there has been a steady build-up of plaque in his blood vessels, indicating moderate heart disease.
The Mayo Clinic says that a score between 100 and 300 is "associated with a relatively high risk of heart attack or other heart disease over the next three to five years."

Under those circumstances, if you were one of the president's doctors, would you give him a drug that can disturb heart rhythms?

I think you'd give him a placebo and let him think it's hydroxychloroquine.

There's a risk that if he's not really taking hydroxychloroquine and he becomes infected with the coronavirus, then suffers serious illness (or dies), you'll be pilloried by the right-wing media for failing to protect him with this marvelous wonder drug. You'll be harassed by conservatives for the rest of your life. Some will want you charged with murder or treason.

But I think your average White House doctor doesn't realize how people think in the right-wing fever swamps. I think whoever is making this decision simply doesn't want to be the person who administers a fatal dose of a drug to the president, against sound medical advice.

So my guess is that Trump believes he's taking hydroxychloroquine, but he's not actually is taking it.

****

UPDATE: Well now there's this:



Conley is the physician to the president and an officer in the Navy. Maybe, when the president asks for a dangerous drug, he thinks he has to follow his commander in chief's orders.

POLL THE CONSPIRACY THEORIES

So this happened over the weekend:
Eric Trump claimed Saturday that the coronavirus will “magically” vanish after the November election and allow the country to fully reopen — an assertion that has no basis in science and is contradicted by health experts worldwide.

In an interview with Fox News’s Jeanine Pirro, Trump suggested the president’s critics were using the pandemic to undermine his father’s rallies, calling it a “cognizant strategy” that would cease once it was no longer politically expedient.

“You watch, they’ll milk it every single day between now and November 3," the younger Trump said. "And guess what, after November 3, coronavirus will magically, all of a sudden, go away and disappear and everybody will be able to reopen.” ...

"They think they’re taking away Donald Trump’s greatest tool, which is being able to go into an arena and fill it with 50,000 people every single time,” he said.
I'm sure much of the media believes that this is a fringe idea, and while it's deeply regrettable that a president's son would endorse it, surely there are very few ordinary Americans who think the entire crisis is a hoax. Right?

Or maybe we've learned something since the early days of birtherism. There was a time when that, too, was seen as just a fringe idea. Then Public Policy Polling, which liked to add a cheeky question or two to its surveys, asked about birtherism in a 2011 poll, and got this response:
Birthers make a majority among those voters who say they're likely to participate in a Republican primary next year. 51% say they don't think Barack Obama was born in the United States to just 28% who firmly believe that he was and 21% who are unsure.
The usually astute Dave Weigel scoffed:
Does that mean that 72 percent of Republicans think Obama should be disqualified from the presidency? No. It suggests that birtherism has become another screen for extreme partisanship.
But poll after poll revealed that Republicans were serious about this. In 2016:
Seventy-two percent of registered Republican voters still doubt President Obama’s citizenship, according to a recent NBC News|SurveyMonkey poll conducted in late June and early July of more than 1,700 registered voters. And this skepticism even exists among Republicans high in political knowledge.
And 2017:
Survey results released by YouGov Friday show that 51 percent of Republicans said they think former President Barack Obama was born in Kenya.... Perhaps unsurprisingly, respondents who voted for Donald Trump in the 2016 election were especially convinced of Obama's African origins: Fully 57 percent said it was "definitely true" or "probably true" that the 44th president came from Kenya.
By that time, we'd made the most famous birther in America our president.

Is anyone polling coronavirus conspiracy theories? If so, I'm not aware of it.

I think we should know how fact-challenged and susceptible to misinformation (and disinforation) our Republican fellow citizens are. I'd like someone to poll a few nutball ideas:
The coronavirus is no worse than the typical seasonal flu.

Flu deaths are strictly and accurately measured, while the death toll from the coronavirus is wildly inflated. If you die in a car crash and you test positive for the coronavirus, doctors classify that as a coronavirus death.

The coronavirus was developed in a lab in order to engineer the defeat of Donald Trump in 2020.

The coronavirus was developed in a lab so that Bill Gates, Anthony Fauci, and the World Health Organization can profit from the vaccine.
And yes, also Eric Trump's notion.

I assume that at least a third of Republican voters, and probably far more, would rate all of these notions as "definitely true" or "probably true."

We should find out. We should know what the supporters of our dominant political party really believe.

Sunday, May 17, 2020

MUFFY, WE HAVE TO MAKE THE PEASANTS WORK AND SHOP AGAIN!

If you've been thinking, Gosh darn it, why doesn't anyone ever ask obscenely rich, privileged people what they'd like us to be doing in response to the coronavirus crisis?, you just got your wish: Vanity Fair's William D. Cohan now brings us the voices of the unheard.
Since no one seems to be consulting Wall Street bankers and traders about when and how to reopen the economy, I convened an impromptu circle of Wall Streeters I know well to get their views. The consensus among them is: We can’t continue any longer in lockdown mode. Something has to give, because more than 36 million newly unemployed Americans are not going to be able to pay their monthly bills, feed their families, or maintain their mental health if the economy remains shut. And the problems are only going to get worse the longer so many Americans are out of work.
It seems to have escaped Cohan's notice that the Republican Party and the Trump administration seem to be listening exclusively to plutocrats who say exactly this. Those plutocrats, admittedly, are from elesewhere in the country, not Wall Street. But I'm struggling to feel sorry for the Wall Streeters as a result.
They reference United Nations’ projections that 250 million people could be on the brink of starvation by the end of the year.
The number is actually 265 million people, according to an April 21 story in The Guardian. But that's up from the usual 130 million people. Funny, I never knew a Wall Streeter to express any discomfort about 130 million people starving worldwide. But 265 million? I guess that's where they draw the line!
They also cite a report by the Stop TB Partnership that if the COVID-19 lockdowns continue that an additional 1.4 million people will die from tuberculosis because they will be unable to get treatment.
Yes, and the Stop TB Partnership's remedy for that is a continued focus on TB monitoring, testing, and treatment, even through the crisis. The group doesn't say this increase is inevitable or that we have to accept mass death from COVID-19 as the price we pay for keeping TB deaths at their usual level.

Do you find it a tad suspicious that these Wall Streeters spontaneously responded to Cohan's questions with heart-tugging but little-known statisics about global health, as if they sit around their Hamptons homes every day reading WHO reports? Why, if I were a cynical man, I'd suspect that they reagarded Cohen's article as an opportunity to propagandize in favor of what they believe will make them more money, and sent surrogates out in search of tear-jerking stats that would make their entirely selfish point.

Cohan writes:
“Saving lives versus saving jobs is the wrong debate,” says one senior Wall Street banker. “Isn’t there a middle ground?... How many lives are you willing to spend to bring the economy back to maintain people’s standard of living? How many lives are we willing to risk? How do you put a price on a life? Many lives were lost preserving American Democracy in the fight against Nazi Germany. There was no moral high ground then. And now they are remembered as the Greatest Generation.”
We're being lectured on life-and-death courage by a man who's afraid to let a sympathetic reporter use his name.

Admittedly, not every one of Cohan's interviewees is so reticent:
Kim Fennebresque, a longtime Wall Street investment banker, has had successful stints at First Boston, Lazard (where I met him), UBS, and as the former CEO of Cowen & Co., a small, independent investment bank. He’s had enough health issues lately to make him especially vulnerable to COVID-19, if he were to contract it. Nevertheless, Fennebresque believes the time has come to open up the economy, especially in those regions of the country where, so far anyway, it has had less of a devastating impact. He agrees the debate has been poorly framed. “In terms of money versus lives, it really reduces it to a silly trade-off, because that’s not what it is,” he says “People will die. People do die. People my age die. It happens, right? It can happen with a flu epidemic. People can die. People have to take care of themselves and wash their hands. People have to stay in and do lots of things, and 5,000 people can’t go running to a beach the day it opens. You do that and it has consequences. People have to take responsibility for their own lives. And people do die. That is kind of what happens.”
Fennebresque is 70 years old. He used to be a hotshot, but now he mostly sits on boards. I bet he never has to leave the house to communicate with fellow board members. He certainly doesn't have to ride the subway in a hot zone (I wonder if he ever rode the subway) or work in a meatpacking plant or cubicle farm with inadequate to nonexistent social distancing.

Fennebresque also goes on to compare this to war ("When Eisenhower and Churchill sat and talked about D-Day they said, You know, how many people did we lose? 150,000? 200,000? What? 50,000? 100,000?") I should note that even though he appears to have been old enough to be drafted starting in the late 1960s, I see no military service on his C.V.
He worries, too, that “people with no stake in the economy” are talking about keeping it closed, to prevent deaths from the virus, while ignoring the severe plight facing many Americans suddenly thrown out of work. “The politicians have no stake in the economy because they’re going to get paid,” he says. “The journalists on TV, their jobs aren’t at risk. [Anthony] Fauci’s job, not at risk.”
Journalists' jobs aren't at risk? Employment in newspaper newsrooms dropped 51% between 2008 and 2019 -- during an economic recovery. Job losses since the coronavirus hit have been massive. And we all know Anthony Fauci's job is at risk.

You know who never winds up on the unemployment line with no idea where his next meal is coming from? A top-earning Wall Street muckamuck.

I don't want to convey the impression that these Wall Streeters have nothing but grievances. They also have solutions. Fennebresque has some swell ones:
There need to be “clear rules,” he continues, for what people need to do as the economy reopens. When do you wear a face mask? How do people go to the beach, or to a restaurant or to a theater? There have to be fines levied for noncompliance. Health inspectors should not only rate a restaurant’s sanitary condition but also how compliant it is with the new rules regarding physical distancing and food preparation. He also thinks simple technical innovations should be implemented. For instance, he went out to dinner the other night near his home in Florida and he and the people he was with wiped down the table, chairs, and silverware. “Then they bring me a leather-bound menu,” he says. “Well, you know what? The menus should all be on my phone. Every restaurant should have their menu on the phone so I can look at it. What do you do with the bill? They bring the bill in one of those little leather containers that closes the bill and I put the credit card in it. They shouldn’t be touching my credit card. They should have a way to do it.... we really do have to have enforcement of whatever the rules are.”
Really? Ya think?

And how is that supposed to happen when Fox News and the dominant political party in America -- folks who listen to Wall Streeters a hell of a lot more than they listen to grouchy liberals, or even to Dr. Fauci -- are rousing the rabble with the notion that any enforcement of health restrictions is jackbooted tyranny? Did Cohan ask Fennebresque how they're supposed to have enforcement and "clear rules" in Michigan, for instance, when so many Michiganders respond to any restraints whatsoever on their behavior by brandishing AR-15s?
Another longtime Wall Street banker agrees the economy needs to get back up and running.... The policy response for opening back up should reflect that reality. “The right thing is to reopen geographically,” he says, “and then I think it becomes somewhat a thing of a voluntary nature as to who decides to, come back and work or not. I don’t think you can hold it against employees who don’t.”
People should return to work, but I don’t think you can hold it against employees who don’t. Really? Who wants to tell this guy, who presumably has never missed a meal in his life, how uneployment works?

Cohan quotes Fennebresque again:

But to those people willing to listen, he would say, “We can’t shut down the country for some minuscule number of people. This is not a 100% death rate. It’s a number of basis points.”
That's what your life is to this schmuck, along with the lives of all the other at-risk people in America: basis points. That says it all.

Saturday, May 16, 2020

NOTICE THAT TRUMP NEVER WENT ALL IN ON THE TARA READE STORY

The credibility of the woman who has accused Joe Biden of a 1993 sexual assault came under attack yesterday. First, the PBS NewsHour published this report:
The PBS NewsHour spoke with 74 former Biden staffers, of whom 62 were women, in order to get a broader picture of his behavior toward women over the course of his career, how they see the new allegation, and whether there was evidence of a larger pattern.

None of the people interviewed said that they had experienced sexual harassment, assault or misconduct by Biden. All said they never heard any rumors or allegations of Biden engaging in sexual misconduct, until the recent assault allegation made by Tara Reade....

They were asked about Reade’s allegation but also whether they, or anyone they know, were ever uncomfortable around Biden. Many said that her sexual assault allegation was at odds with their knowledge of Biden’s behavior toward women.

The interviews revealed previously unreported details about the Biden office when Reade worked there, such as an account that she lost her job because of her poor performance, not as retaliation for lodging complaints about sexual harassment, as Reade has said....

Some former staffers told the NewsHour that if Biden did assault Reade ..., it would have been a brazen attack in an area with a high risk of being seen....

In separate and in-depth interviews, women who worked for Biden generally did not want to weigh in with certainty on whether they believed Reade’s allegation was true. But they all said it is at odds with their experience.
And then there was this from Politico:
A number of those in close contact with Reade over the past 12 years, a period in which she went by the names Tara Reade, Tara McCabe or Alexandra McCabe, laid out a familiar pattern: Reade ingratiated herself, explained she was down on her luck and needed help, and eventually took advantage of their goodwill to extract money, skip rent payments or walk out on other bills.

The people quoted in this article provided copies of past emails, screenshots of Facebook Messenger or text exchanges with Reade, copies of billing invoices or court records detailing their grievances or correspondence....

“You can use these words: manipulative, deceitful, user,” said Kelly Klett, an attorney who rented Reade a room in her home in 2018. “Looking back at it all now, that is exactly how I view her and how I feel about her.”

“She has a problem,” said Lynn Hummer, who owns a horse sanctuary where Reade volunteered for two years, beginning in 2014.

She described Reade as “very clever, manipulative. ... I do think she’s a liar.”
I don't know whether this is the end of the story -- in the twenty-first century, no false notion that has political power ever dies -- but it will be harder now for serious people to believe Reade's allegations.

I have to assume that people associated with Donald Trump's White House and campaign either knew that this allegation wouldn't bear scrutiny or strongly suspected as much. Yes, RNC chair Ronna Romney McDaniel attacked the media for "ignoring" the story -- but the Trump campaign never went into full attack mode, and the story never turned up in Trump's Twitter feed or in his daily airing of grievances before the media. Trump actually went easy on Biden when he was asked about the Reade story in a Fox interview last week:
Regarding the claim against Biden, "I don't know if it's false or not," Mr. Trump said on "Fox & Friends." "Joe is going to have to be able to prove whatever he has to prove, or she has to prove it, but that's a battle he has to fight."

"I've had many false accusations made, I can tell you that," he added. "Many. And maybe it is a false accusation. Frankly, I hope it is for his sake."
Why did Trump hold back? I initially assumed that Trump's team urged him to save Tara Reade for the fall campaign. But when has Trump ever had the impulse control to refrain from a personal attack?

It's possible that sex is the one area where Trump feels genuinely vulnerable. If so, I don't understand it. Trump's base either shrugs off all the sexual misconduct allegations against him or considers him a stud because he's so frequently accused. While I'm on the subject, did you know that you can buy commercially produced versions of one of the vilest hand-drawn T-shirts spotted during Trump's 2016 campaign?




The mainstream media, which has been accused of downplaying the Reade story, has now given it plenty of coverage. Even early on, in The New York Times, for instance, Reade received far more mentions than E. Jean Carroll did during a comparable period after she'd accused Trump of rape.

Maybe Trump believes his luck will run out. Maybe he has sexual secrets whose revelation he thinks he couldn't survive. (Though it's hard to imagine anything his base wouldn't forgive. I used to believe his voters might abandon him if it were revealed that he'd had gay sex or sex with an underage partner. Now I'm certain they'd just declare it fake news and move on.)

Either this is an area where Trump feels vulnerable, in a way he never feels vulnerable otherwise, or his advisers knew or suspected that Reade's story wouldn't hold up, so they urged restraint. Whatever the reason, Trump and his campaign never went all in on Reade. That appears to have been a wise decision.

Friday, May 15, 2020

A SLOGAN FOR BIDEN?

ABC News reports on the disconnect between the president and the public:
"We have prevailed," President Donald Trump declared this week, in a comment he said was about COVID-19 testing.

"I think you should absolutely open the schools," he said two days later, contradicting Dr. Anthony Fauci's warning that it may not be realistic to expect schools to be open this fall.

Both statements contradict ... how the public is experiencing this crisis.

New ABC News/Ipsos polling out Friday morning shows a country that remains hesitant to resume regular life, even as state and local restrictions begin to get lifted -- either by executive action or court order.

Seventy-three percent of Americans say there are not enough coronavirus tests available in the United States, notwithstanding Trump's claim. And 69% of parents with children living at home say they aren't ready to send them back to school, on top of the large majorities hesitant to return to restaurants, movie theaters, bowling alleys and the like.
Joe Biden could boil this down to a simple slogan, one that covers much more than the current crisis:

Trump's not listening.

Biden could say:
The American people are afraid of the coronavirus. They want more testing and tracing, more protective equipment for medical professionals. They want a national strategy that will make us safer so we can resume some sort of normal life.

Trump's not listening. He doesn't listen to the concerns of ordinary people. He only listens to the sound of his own voice.

He thinks there are plenty of tests and masks. He's not listening to the frontline doctors and nurses who say there aren't. He says we don't need a vaccine. He's not listening to the scientists who say we do. He says we should all be happy and go shopping. He's not listening to the millions of Americans who are literally scared for their lives.

Trump never listens. He's never listened when Americans have told him they want Obamacare preserved and strengthened -- he supports a lawsuit that could get rid of Obamacare altogether. He's never listened when the American people have said they want universal background checks for firearms. He's never listened when Americans have said they don't want parents separated from their children at the border, or children put in cages. He's never listened when Americans say they want a path to citizenship for the Dreamers. Affordable college? A higher minimum wage? An end to more and more tax cuts for the rich? Trump's not listening.

I'm Joe Biden, and I'm not running for president to feed my own ego. I've been listening to the American people since I got into politics. When I'm president, I'll listen to you.
Thirty-two years ago, a career politician who wasn't considered articulate or charismatic won the presidency after delivering a convention speech in which he acknowledged the way he was perceived:
I am a quiet man, but I hear the quiet people others don't. The ones who raise the family, pay the taxes, meet the mortgage. And I hear them and I am moved, and their concerns are mine.
Were these words from George H.W. Bush accurate? It doesn't matter. They were effective.

Biden isn't a great speaker. That's why he should tell the American people that he's a listener, that he hears them. Everyone who's not part of Trump's rabid base knows that Trump isn't listening to them.

REFS, SUCCESSFULLY WORKED? (updated)

I'm detecting a new tone in some mainstream media stories about the coronavirus. Polls suggest that the "Reopen" campaign has won over only a small minority of American citizens -- but it might be winning over a few journalists.

This is from a New York Times story about Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, where Democratic governors are trying to be cautious about reopening, while Republican legislators (and, in Wisconsin, a right-leaning state Supreme Court) demand an end to restrictions.
Wisconsin has been showing signs of improvement over the past week, including in the Green Bay area, which had three meatpacking outbreaks and the state’s highest per-capita case numbers.

Michigan, which had perhaps the country’s most alarming spike in cases outside of New York, has seen steady improvement for more than a month. The state had about 50,000 known cases and about 4,800 deaths as of Thursday night. Michigan officials have been reporting about 400 new cases each day, down from more than 1,700 on some days in early April.
(Yes, but Michigan reported 1,173 new cases and 73 new deaths yesterday.)
In Pennsylvania, reports of new cases have largely followed the national curve, with an extended downward-slanted plateau. More than 63,000 cases had been identified there as of Thursday night, along with about 4,300 deaths. The state’s drop in new case reports has accelerated in recent days....
The story acknowledges "concerning rates of growth continue in some rural counties." "Concerning" is right:
In Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania—Democrats’ so-called “Blue Wall”—19 counties report coronavirus cases doubling in less than 14 days.
But the Times story strongly implies that the worst is over in these states. Meanwhile, Politico Playbook gloats on behalf of Florida governor Ron DeSantis:
Good evening, and greetings from Florida, where we feel the need to inform you that it’s not a post-apocalyptic hellscape of coronavirus infection and cadavers stacked like cordwood. That is, Florida just doesn’t look nearly as bad as the national news media and sky-is-falling critics have been predicting for about two months now. But then, the national news media is mostly based in New York and loves to love its Democratic governor, Andrew Cuomo, about as much as it loves to hate on Florida’s Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis.
(Cuomo was nearly invisible in the national media until the coronavirus crisis, but whatever.)
First, let’s just come out and say it: DeSantis looks more right than those who criticized the Sunshine State’s coronavirus response. According to the latest Florida figures, fewer than 2,000 have died, and around 43,000 have been infected. That’s a fraction of the dire predictions made for Florida when spring breakers swarmed the beaches, and those numbers are dwarfed by similarly sized New York, which has seen 12 times more deaths and nearly eight times more infections.... More people reportedly died in New York nursing homes than in all of Florida.
The initial response in New York was terrible. The response since then has been admirable.
The polling disparity: DeSantis is actually polling worse than Cuomo in their respective states, and the Florida press is wondering why. Part of that is style. Cuomo has a smooth delivery, a deep and calming voice and an attitude that projects he can answer any question. DeSantis sometimes comes across as peevish and defensive, has made a misstatement or two and was mocked for struggling to put on a mask. But most of the difference between DeSantis and Cuomo is due to politics. DeSantis governs a politically divided state. Cuomo is a scion of Democratic royalty in a deeply Democratic state.

Yes, there’s media bias, too. Cuomo also has something else DeSantis doesn’t: a press that defers to him, one that preferred to cover “Florida Morons” at the beach (where it’s relatively hard to get infected) over New Yorkers riding cramped subway cars (where it’s easy to get infected). In fact, people can still ride the subways for most hours of the day in New York, but Miami Beach’s sands remain closed. Maybe things would be different if DeSantis had a brother who worked in cable news and interviewed him for a “sweet moment” in primetime.
A few things.

First, New York is a Democratic state, but Andrew Cuomo hasn't been universally regarded as a beloved Democratic royal here. His recent numbers, until the crisis, were middling:



Cuomo has "a deep and calming voice"? Pre-coronavirus New Yorkers would have found that absurd -- we thought he regularly came off as kind of an asshole.

Yes, the subways in New York City are still running, but subway ridership dropped 92% as a result of the crisis -- and as a result of the shutdown in most of the state, which has been extended to June 13.

Florida's beaches may have been safer than we realized -- the virus appears to be much less communicable outdoors -- but the state's overall caseload seems to have plateaued in May, although admittedly at a lower level than in early April. The numbers don't seem to be going down. The state recorded another 808 cases yesterday, and 48 new deaths. The numbers in New York are still awful, but the decline has been far more significant.





I hope the Times and Politico pieces aren't part of a trend. There's much more work to be done. It's too soon to declare victory.

****

UPDATE: Declare victory in Florida? Not so fast.
Federal officials responding to the coronavirus pandemic are concerned about the rapidly rising number of cases in Palm Beach County, Fla., according to an internal Trump administration document reviewed by Yahoo News.

The document, a May 15 daily interagency update on the nation’s coronavirus response circulated by the Department of Homeland Security, notes new areas of concern for coronavirus....

“Palm Beach County, FL reported a 71% increase in new cases the last 7 days compared to the previous 7 days,” the document explains....

President Trump recently changed his primary residence from Manhattan to his Mar-a-Lago golf resort, which is located in Palm Beach County.

Thursday, May 14, 2020

DEMOCRATS' #1 WITNESS SHOULD BE BARACK OBAMA

President Trump wants Barack Obama to be hauled before the Senate, but Lindsey Graham is afraid to call him.
Sen. Lindsey Graham on Thursday brushed back President Donald Trump’s pleas for the Judiciary Committee chairman to haul in former President Barack Obama for testimony about the origins of the Russia investigation and the FBI’s handling of the investigation into Michael Flynn....

“I don’t think now’s the time for me to do that. I don’t know if that’s even possible. I have grave concerns about the role of executive privilege and all kinds of issues,” Graham said in a brief interview. “I understand President Trump’s frustration, but be careful what you wish for. Just be careful what you wish for.”

... on Thursday morning, Trump called out Graham....

“If I were a Senator or Congressman, the first person I would call to testify about the biggest political crime and scandal in the history of the USA, by FAR, is former President Obama,” Trump wrote on Twitter. “He knew EVERYTHING. Do it @LindseyGrahamSC , just do it. No more Mr. Nice Guy. No more talk!”

... Graham said the Judiciary Committee will start holding hearings in early June related to the origins of the Russia investigation....
So the majority won't call Obama? Democrats on the committee, I presume, will be allowed to call witnesses. I think the first name on their witness list should be Obama's.

The former president should prepare himself to testify. He should do it as a civic duty to America -- not that I think he'll actually be permitted to appear.

By placing Obama's name at the top of their witness list, Democrats will be saying, Really, Mr. President? You want your reelection battle to be a proxy fight against the most popular living political figure in America? Then let's have that battle. You know that Obama could easily field hours' worth of questions. You know he'd make the Republicans on the committee look both vicious and buffoonish. You know he'd handle himself with a dignity most Americans miss. You know they wouldn't lay a glove on him.

The committee's Republicans understand this. They don't want to take on Obama. So Democrats should call him -- with his consent, but he should consent -- just so the spectacle of Republicans shrinking from a confrontation with the former president can play out in public. You're blocking his testimony? Why? What are you afraid of? I thought this was "Obamagate."

Please don't say that Democrats shouldn't call Obama because summoning a former president to testify sets a bad precedent. The norms have all been bulldozed and dynamited. Let's do this, and see who retreats in fear.

I DREAMED I DIDN'T LIVE IN AN IDIOCRACY

Last night I read Matthew Yglesias's "Experts’ 7 Best Ideas on How to Beat Covid-19 and Save the Economy." It's exactly what you'd expect from him -- it's long, it's detailed, it's full of technocratic solutions from people who, I assume, have multiple degrees obtained at very elite schools.

I devoured it. Even though it's about dealing with the coronavirus in the months or years when it will continue to spread unchecked by a vaccine, reading it was almost an escapist experience.

A sample:
Wearing masks is really important for reducing coronavirus transmission. A study by a team of five researchers out of Hong Kong and several European universities calculates that if 80 percent of a population can be persuaded to don masks, that would cut transmission levels to one-twelfth of what you’d have in a mask-less society. Widespread use of masks is likely part of the reason Japan’s coronavirus outbreak has been mild thus far, and grassroots mobilization starting with masks is almost universally seen as part of the Hong Kong success story.

For the broad population, the key fact is that while wearing a mask does little to protect the wearer from the risk of getting infected, it does a lot to prevent the risk that the wearer spreads the virus to other people....

A huge barrier to increasing production of either kind of mask [for ordinary citizens or health professionals] is that nobody knows how long high levels of demand will last....

Caleb Watney from the R Street Institute and Alec Stapp from the Progressive Policy Institute suggest avoiding this situation with an idea that will recur several times on this list: The federal government should agree to pay above the pre-crisis market rate and guarantee that it will buy lots of masks and lots of respirators for an extended period. That gives business owners confidence to invest. The risk is that the country ends up “wasting” money on unneeded equipment if things end up going better than expected. But surplus equipment can be stockpiled so the US doesn’t get caught short in the next pandemic, or can be donated to lower-income countries....
Yglesias offers ideas for speeding up vaccine development, for ways to prioritize testing, for distribution of economic aid, and so on. In every case, smart nerds offer smart proposals that would make this crisis less terrifying and less deadly.

Reading it was an escapist experience for me because I know that smart people with deep wells of knowledge live in America, or communicate their knowledge to Americans from overseas, and I know that they continue to have some influence on how America handles serious problems like the coronavirus crisis -- but I also know that our government is run by people who are not smart, don't have expert knowledge about anything, and, more significantly, disdain smartness and knowledge, regarding it them as un-American, liberal, and Democratic. I know that our politics has been dominated for forty years by a party that regards well-educated experts as arrogant elitists who deploy their knowledge only to repress ordinary Americans or make them feel inferior. I know that nearly half of all American voters, including a majority of white voters, prefer a country run by people who treat experts with contempt.

I don't think experts have all the answers. But this is the worst possible time to reject what they're telling us. In this crisis, I'm horrified that I have to live in the Republican Party's America. I'd much rather live in Matt Yglesias's America.

Joe Biden isn't a nerd. However, I'm certain that he's very receptive to the best ideas nerds have to offer. If he's elected president, I'm sure he'll be eager to hear the coronavirus recommendations of smart nerds, and he'll want to implement many of those ideas.

I hope we all live long enough to escape into President Joe Biden's America, which I hope will be a safe space for smart nerds. Right now, we really need them.

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

REPUBLICAN VOTERS ARE STICKING WITH TRUMP, BUT NOT JUST BECAUSE THEY'RE REPUBLICAN

This poll seems like outlier, though who knows?
Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden's lead over President Donald Trump now stands at five points, but Trump has an edge in the critical battleground states that could decide the electoral college, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.

In the new poll, 51% of registered voters nationwide back Biden, while 46% say they prefer Trump, while in the battlegrounds, 52% favor Trump and 45% Biden.
Here's the part that seems suspect:
The poll suggests Biden outpaces Trump among voters over age 45 by a 6-point margin, while the two are near even among those under age 45 (49% Biden to 46% Trump).

Though other recent polling has shown some signs of concern for Biden among younger voters and strength among older ones, few have pegged the race as this close among younger voters. The results suggest that younger voters in the battleground states are tilted in favor of Trump, a stark change from the last CNN poll in which battleground voters were analyzed in March....
Trump is running nearly even with Biden among younger people? And it's not because they're inclined to go third-party? (Only 5% of younger voters are failing to line up with one of the major-party candidates, we're told.) This doesn't seem right. But who knows?

In any case, the fact that Biden is struggling in battleground states in this poll (even though he's doing well in those states in other polls) won't surprise Eric Levitz of New York magazine, who's just written a post titled "Trump’s Odds of Winning Reelection Are Higher Than You Think." Levitz once thought the coronavirus crisis and economic downturn would sink Trump.
If a pathological narcissist with no message discipline was running a tad behind Joe Biden when unemployment was historically low, surely he would fall out of contention once America entered a pandemic-induced depression....

And yet: We’re more than one month into America’s worst economic crisis in 80 years and Trump’s approval rating is still considerably higher than it has been for most of his presidency.
Levitz thinks Democrats shouldn't be in trouble "so long as one posits that Trump’s crisis halo is in the process of wearing off and the well-established correlation between economic conditions and incumbent approval will soon resurface. But what if that correlation is an artifact of a less polarized time in American politics?"

Levitz runs through some possible reasons Trump's popularity might be durable, all having to do with the increasing partisanship of the American electorate:
Over the past two decades, U.S. voters have become ever-more-tightly ensconced in one party or the other. Ticket-splitting ... has plummeted since Barack Obama’s election.... Today, Americans are getting more of their information about politics from national, ideologically oriented outlets — and less from local, putatively neutral ones — than ever before....

In a world with fewer swing voters, a recession is likely to hurt Trump less than it would past incumbents.
But it seems obvious now that Trump is doing a terrible job of managing this crisis. And it's not as if every Republican wins in every red state now -- Alabama elected a Democratic senator in 2017 when the Republican on the ballot was Roy Moore; Kansas elected a Democratic governor in 2018, rejecting Kris Kobach; Kentucky chose Democrat Andy Beshear over Republican incumbent Matt Bevin in last year's gubernatorial election. Red-state voters are still capable of rejecting Republican candidates they don't like.

Which means that Republican voters aren't just telling pollsters they approve of how Trump is handling the crisis out of habit or loyalty -- they really like what he's doing.

Why do they like it? Because he's turned the crisis into the kind of entertainment they enjoy most. Trump vs. the media. Trump vs. China. Trump vs. the libs. Trump vs. smart people. Trump vs. women who aren't deferential.

Remember, many Republicans live far away from the outbreaks. This crisis is an abstrction to them. And if they find themselves in the midst of an outbreak someday, they may simply conclude, following Trump (and Fox News), that it's someone else's fault.

If Trump wins in November, it won't be in spite of the fact that voters knew he failed to deal effectively with the crisis. A portion of the GOP electorate would dump him if they felt that way. They think he's handling the crisis superbly.

Trump's not-terrible poll numbers aren't just the result of the (R) after his name. This is more than Republicans remaining loyal to a Republican. They could theoretically blame Trump for everything that's going wrong. So far, however, they blame everyone Trump blames.

THE MOST CHILLING THING JARED KUSHNER TOLD TIME HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH VOTING

A Time interview with Jared Kushner was just released, and this is the part that's getting the most attention:
... Time magazine White House correspondent Brian Bennett ... asked during the live-streamed interview: “Is there any scenario, including a second outbreak in the fall, where the election is moved past November 3rd?”

“That’s too far in the future to tell,” Kushner replied. “Nothing that I’m aware of now ... It’s not my decision to make. I’m not sure I can commit one way or the other. But right now that’s the plan.”

He later tried to explain his remarks to The New York Times, saying: “I have not been involved in, nor am I aware of any discussions about trying to change the date of the Presidential election.”
I know most of you disagree, but I don't believe we have to worry about this. It wouldn't surprise me to learn that there have been discussions about this in Trumpworld, but I think the president is eager to hold the vote -- it's the principal thing he's living for. He's not joking when he says he doesn't believe bad polls -- Power of Positive Thinking again -- and he has good reason to believe that he'll at least be competitive in November. Sure he's losing to Biden in nearly every poll, but the margin is smaller than it was late last year, and it's also smaller than Hillary Clinton's lead at this time in 2016. Trump is getting mediocre marks for his pandemic response, but his overall job approval rating is slightly better than it was for most of his presidency. In a CNN poll released yesterday, 54% of respondents gave the federal government a poor grade for its coronavirus response -- and yet Trump's overall approval rating was 45%, which equals the highest approval rating he's ever received in that poll. (His disapproval rating was 51%.)

It's clear now that not only could Trump shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and not lose any votes, he wouldn't lose any votes if he strangled a kitten on live TV, or soiled himself in the middle of a news conference and then ate his own feces, or ... let tens of thousands of Americans die in a pandemic while he was completely distracted by a vendetta against his predecessor as president. Nothing -- death, an economic depression, personal corruption and incompetence, abuse of government power -- will sink him enough in the polls to make him believe he's going to lose. So why would he postpone the election?

I find what Kushner said at the end of this clip, as part of the discussion of a possible postponement, much more chilling:



When asked if there was a chance the presidential election could be postponed past November 3 due to the pandemic, Kushner said that isn’t his decision. “I’m not sure I can commit one way or the other, but right now that’s the plan,” he said.

“Hopefully by the time we get to September, October, November, we’ve done enough work with testing and with all the different things we’re trying to do to prevent a future outbreak of the magnitude that would make us shut down again,” Kushner continued. “I really believe that once America opens up, it’ll be very hard for America to ever lock down again.”
(Emphasis added.)

Kushner doesn't say, "I really believe that once America opens up, we won't need to ever lock down again." He says "it'll be very hard."

It's often said that a premature opening could lead to a wave of COVID-19 cases rivaling the first wave, and that this new wave will force the reopened states to shut down again. But I worry that the plan is to pressure -- or compel -- the states not to shut down again, even if they have a bad wave of cases. The White House, congressional Republicans, and the right-wing plutocrats they listen to appear to be hellbent on keeping the economy open no matter how many people are getting sick or dying. (And it's not as if we've got this under control now: Yesterday the country recorded 22,802 new cases and 1,630 new deaths.)

When Kushner says that "once America opens up, it’ll be very hard for America to ever lock down again," I hear that as "we intend to make it very hard for America to ever lock down again" -- by withholding federal aid from locked-down states, by refusing to extend another federal call for social distancing, and by propagandizing against additional shutdowns. I think the Trumpers, the congressional GOP, and the plutocrat wingnuts want us just to work and die (and shop) through the rest of this pandemic, and they're going to do everything they can to avoid a repeat of the measures that got us under 30,000 new cases and 2,000 deaths a day. A crackdown on proper public health seems much more likely than a postponed election.

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

ONLY ONE FACTION IN THIS COUNTRY IS UNWILLING TO GIVE THE CORONAVIRUS A REAL FIGHT

Ross Douthat wonders why we don't want to wage a full-scale war on the coronavirus.
We’re containing the virus, limiting the damage, preventing worst-case scenarios — but we aren’t trying to actually stamp it out. Instead, we’re on a path to just live with it (and sometimes die with it) until we get a vaccine or herd immunity, choosing management and mitigation over suppression, a year of stalemate over a campaign to win the war.

... we have no nimbleness and little grand ambition, and so our capacities are limited when it comes to achieving more than just stability, more than what Matthew Continetti calls a “cruel new normal” of thousands of deaths every week or month.
You may be asking: Who is this "we" Douthat is talking about? And continues to talk about:
... we can ... look at the places that have achieved suppression and see a range of plausible measures for a would-be General Patton of the coronavirus war. Masking. Testing. Tracing. And yes, mandatory quarantines.

We have twice been given time to scale up our capacities in these areas — first in the wasted month of February, then in the weeks of lockdown we’ve just endured. And we’ve made some progress, however halting.

But an assumption of futility hangs over these efforts — a mentality of “no, we can’t” that emphasizes all the ways that we aren’t like South Korea or Taiwan or Eastern Europe, all the impositions that Americans supposedly won’t stand for, all the ways that our exceptionalism and polarization and mutual suspicion will inevitably make our death toll rise.

Maybe some of this defeatism is justified as a judgment on Donald Trump’s inability to lead any kind of wartime effort. Maybe it’s justified as a judgment on our hollowed-out industrial capacities, our loss of what Bloomberg’s Dan Wang calls the “process knowledge” required to suddenly shift from making semiconductors to making swabs or masks.
Are our manufacturing shortfalls solely because we lack the "process knowledge" to make, say, protective equipment? Over the weekend, The Washington Post reported on a Texas company whose vice president told the Trump administration that he was willing to start up relatively new but idle production lines in order to produce 1.7 million N95 masks a week. The administration blew him off.

Does Douthat think most Americans wanted that to happen? Maybe a great deal of U.S. manufacturing capacity isn't ready to shift to pandemic mode, but the Trump administration hasn't even tried to get the most we can get out of what we've got.

Douthat actually makes an interesting comparison here:
But the assumption that decadence is simply inescapable seems decadent itself. Especially when it leads to weird conclusions — like that Americans are too paranoid or cussedly libertarian to accept mandatory testing or temperature checks or mask-wearing or quarantines but that we will somehow just resign ourselves to closed schools and dead retail and empty restaurants and rolling lockdowns for months and months to come.
Right -- we did accept the lockdowns, or most of us did. Poll after poll tells us that two-thirds to three-quarters of Americans want restrictions to continue until it's safer to resume a more normal life. On the whole, Americans aren't "cussedly libertarian." Only some of us are. And nearly all of those so-called libertarians aren't libertarians in the abstract -- they're fine if people they don't like are subject to government restraints (or worse treatment, such as police brutality), as long as the authorities don't try to make them do what they don't want to do.

Douthat almost gets it:
... there’s nothing in our history to suggest that our individualism precludes accepting tough, even authoritarian measures under the right conditions. A pandemic that’s already responsible for 1930s-level unemployment and more American dead than the war in Vietnam seems like it should qualify.
What Douthat won't do is recognize what's preventing us from really declaring war on the virus: Republicans. It's Republican politicians who've tolerated Trump's dithering, denialism, and failure to act. It's Republican pols and propagandists who are trying to manufacture consent for a forced return to normal life, even though most of the public still find the virus terrifying. It's Republican voters who've drunk the Kool-Aid and who now accept the plutocrat-friendly "reopen" rhetoric, even as Democrats and non-right-leaning independents -- i.e., the vast majority of the nation -- reject that rhetoric.

America is still big. It's the GOP that got small. It fears that a shared sense of purpose and a successfully activist government might threaten the party's top mission, which is to transfer as much money and power as possible from the non-rich to the rich. A "reform conservative" like Douthat ought to be able to figure that out.