A black eye for Ashcroft?
The Bush administration's first major post-Sept. 11 prosecution, which broke up a terrorist cell in Detroit, is in danger of unraveling after the Justice Department divulged it had failed to turn over evidence that might have helped the defense. The evidence includes a letter from an imprisoned drug gang leader who alleges the government's key witness confided he made up some of his story.
The December 2001 letter, which could have been used by defense lawyers to challenge the prosecution witness during the trial this spring, wasn't turned over until a couple of weeks ago.
The defendants are now asking that their convictions be overturned, and the judge has scheduled an emergency hearing for tomorrow to demand an explanation from the government.
...Senior law enforcement officials told the Associated Press yesterday the Justice Department is concerned how the judge will rule and will acknowledge that its prosecutors erred....
--Boston Globe/AP
Thursday, December 11, 2003
For years we've heard Republicans denounce "Washington, D.C." and say they believe in "returning power to the states." But have you noticed you don't hear much about returning power to the states anymore? That's because many states and municipalities want to do things the Gop's principal constituents -- lobbyists -- don't like: fighting corporate malfeasance, for instance, or buying prescription drugs from Canada. A couple of days ago, USA Today had a good story about this federal-state conflict.
And here's another example, as reported by Newsday:
New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, who's already clashed with the Securities and Exchange Commision over the investigation of mutual funds, yesterday threatened to sue federal banking regulators if they attempt to curtail his enforcement power.
Flanked by politicians and consumer advocates during a news conference at his Manhattan office, Spitzer railed against the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency's recent proposal to allow federal banking law to supercede state consumer protection law. "The OCC is trying to pre-empt state and local laws ... This is bad law; it is simply wrong," said Spitzer, adding, "We know how to draft lawsuits," if the OCC continues to push its proposal....
Spitzer said he and other state attorney generals became concerned when the OCC sent a letter to national banks last year telling them they are not subject to state enforcement and to "consult with the OCC if state officials contact them concerning the potential application of state law."...
Spitzer, New York State Banking Department Superintendent Diana Taylor and consumer groups say that such a proposal would allow national banks to sidestep New York's strong anti-predatory lending laws.
Predatory lenders offer loans with exorbitant interest rates to disadvantaged consumers, which include immigrants, African Americans, Latinos and seniors. Spitzer and the New York State Banking Department have gone after several large financial institutions, such as Delta Funding and Household, for abusive lending. Spitzer said predatory lending costs American consumers more than $9.1 billion a year.
If national banks are allowed to sidestep these laws, it will encourage state-chartered banks to do the same by becoming national banks, he said....
Go, Eliot!
And here's another example, as reported by Newsday:
New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, who's already clashed with the Securities and Exchange Commision over the investigation of mutual funds, yesterday threatened to sue federal banking regulators if they attempt to curtail his enforcement power.
Flanked by politicians and consumer advocates during a news conference at his Manhattan office, Spitzer railed against the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency's recent proposal to allow federal banking law to supercede state consumer protection law. "The OCC is trying to pre-empt state and local laws ... This is bad law; it is simply wrong," said Spitzer, adding, "We know how to draft lawsuits," if the OCC continues to push its proposal....
Spitzer said he and other state attorney generals became concerned when the OCC sent a letter to national banks last year telling them they are not subject to state enforcement and to "consult with the OCC if state officials contact them concerning the potential application of state law."...
Spitzer, New York State Banking Department Superintendent Diana Taylor and consumer groups say that such a proposal would allow national banks to sidestep New York's strong anti-predatory lending laws.
Predatory lenders offer loans with exorbitant interest rates to disadvantaged consumers, which include immigrants, African Americans, Latinos and seniors. Spitzer and the New York State Banking Department have gone after several large financial institutions, such as Delta Funding and Household, for abusive lending. Spitzer said predatory lending costs American consumers more than $9.1 billion a year.
If national banks are allowed to sidestep these laws, it will encourage state-chartered banks to do the same by becoming national banks, he said....
Go, Eliot!
Wednesday, December 10, 2003
Bush Seeks Help of Allies Barred From Iraq Deals
President Bush found himself in the awkward position on Wednesday of calling the leaders of France, Germany and Russia to ask them to forgive Iraq's debts, just a day after the Pentagon excluded those countries and others from $18 billion in American-financed Iraqi reconstruction projects....
The Russian defense minister, Sergei Ivanov, when asked about the Pentagon decision, responded by ruling out any debt write-off for Iraq.
The Canadian deputy prime minister, John Manley, suggested crisply that "it would be difficult" to add to the $190 million already given for reconstruction in Iraq.
White House officials said Mr. Bush and his aides had been surprised by both the timing and the blunt wording of the Pentagon's declaration....
Those officials apparently did not realize that the memorandum, signed by Paul D. Wolfowitz, deputy secretary of defense, would appear on a Defense Department Web site hours before Mr. Bush was scheduled to ask world leaders to receive James A. Baker III, the former treasury secretary and secretary of state, who is heading up the effort to wipe out Iraq's debt....
--New York Times
D'oh!
President Bush found himself in the awkward position on Wednesday of calling the leaders of France, Germany and Russia to ask them to forgive Iraq's debts, just a day after the Pentagon excluded those countries and others from $18 billion in American-financed Iraqi reconstruction projects....
The Russian defense minister, Sergei Ivanov, when asked about the Pentagon decision, responded by ruling out any debt write-off for Iraq.
The Canadian deputy prime minister, John Manley, suggested crisply that "it would be difficult" to add to the $190 million already given for reconstruction in Iraq.
White House officials said Mr. Bush and his aides had been surprised by both the timing and the blunt wording of the Pentagon's declaration....
Those officials apparently did not realize that the memorandum, signed by Paul D. Wolfowitz, deputy secretary of defense, would appear on a Defense Department Web site hours before Mr. Bush was scheduled to ask world leaders to receive James A. Baker III, the former treasury secretary and secretary of state, who is heading up the effort to wipe out Iraq's debt....
--New York Times
D'oh!
Here's the story I posted yesterday, then deleted:
...In the past week, two retail chains stopped buying goods from American furniture makers who are supporting a so-called "anti-dumping petition" that could impose steep tariffs on Chinese products, thus dramatically raising import costs.
...American Furniture Warehouse Co. Inc., based in Englewood, Colo., which has nine stores across Colorado, and Columbus, Ohio,-based Value City Furniture, which has 80 stores across the East Coast and Midwest, are no longer buying bedroom sets from companies whose executives signed a petition charging China with illegally dumping cheap furniture in the United States....
...For the American furniture making executives who signed the petition, the argument is simple.
China has fixed its currency at about 40 percent of the value of the U.S. dollar, thereby insuring what they deem as persistently unfair pricing advantages over U.S. products. In addition, the petition supporters argue that the Chinese government subsidizes the building of furniture plants in that country and is not abiding by World Trade Organization standards to protect worker safety and the environment to further keep costs down.
...Wickes Furniture, a 40-store chain in the Midwest, has also stopped buying from Vaughan-Bassett. Wickes was spending as much as $1 million a year with the company, but has gradually cut back and shifted to buying from China manufacturers after Seffner, Fla.,-based retail giant Rooms To Go Inc. bought half of the company.
....Jeff Seaman, chief executive of Rooms To Go, said he isn't boycotting any American manufacturer company that signed the anti-dumping petition. But Seaman said he prefers to buy from furniture makers that are not backing the petition.
..."I'm against the petition because it's going to raise prices for consumers," Seaman said. "Anything that's anti-consumer is bad for larger retailers."
...Just in the wood bedroom furniture segment, the United States has lost 106,000 jobs in the past four years -- including more than 16,000 factory jobs in North Carolina -- according to the U.S. Department of Labor....
--MSNBC, from The Business Journal of the Greater Triad Area (North Carolina)
What's odd about this -- and about Bush's warning to Taiwan -- is that Bush and the furniture dealers (and other retailers, from Wal-Mart on down) clearly no longer fear that there'll be a public outcry. Some rightists still mistrust China, and some on the left worry about human-rights violations and lost American jobs, but the average American wants that $29 DVD player and doesn't seem angry at China the way, not so long ago, many Americans were angry at Japan.
Part of the problem, I think, is that average Americans can't figure out what would save American jobs -- protectionism? free trade? unionism? huge tax cuts for the rich? So Americans just shrug and, as long as they're employed, spend.
I can't figure it out either. I'd love to tick off a progressive laundry list of solutions, but the relentless ratcheting down of costs by corporations is a trend that isn't going to be reversed by one or two successful union organizing campaigns, or "living wage" laws. I fear that it's going to have to get a lot worse before people are really motivated to take steps to turn it back, and at that point it may require a (literal) class war.
...In the past week, two retail chains stopped buying goods from American furniture makers who are supporting a so-called "anti-dumping petition" that could impose steep tariffs on Chinese products, thus dramatically raising import costs.
...American Furniture Warehouse Co. Inc., based in Englewood, Colo., which has nine stores across Colorado, and Columbus, Ohio,-based Value City Furniture, which has 80 stores across the East Coast and Midwest, are no longer buying bedroom sets from companies whose executives signed a petition charging China with illegally dumping cheap furniture in the United States....
...For the American furniture making executives who signed the petition, the argument is simple.
China has fixed its currency at about 40 percent of the value of the U.S. dollar, thereby insuring what they deem as persistently unfair pricing advantages over U.S. products. In addition, the petition supporters argue that the Chinese government subsidizes the building of furniture plants in that country and is not abiding by World Trade Organization standards to protect worker safety and the environment to further keep costs down.
...Wickes Furniture, a 40-store chain in the Midwest, has also stopped buying from Vaughan-Bassett. Wickes was spending as much as $1 million a year with the company, but has gradually cut back and shifted to buying from China manufacturers after Seffner, Fla.,-based retail giant Rooms To Go Inc. bought half of the company.
....Jeff Seaman, chief executive of Rooms To Go, said he isn't boycotting any American manufacturer company that signed the anti-dumping petition. But Seaman said he prefers to buy from furniture makers that are not backing the petition.
..."I'm against the petition because it's going to raise prices for consumers," Seaman said. "Anything that's anti-consumer is bad for larger retailers."
...Just in the wood bedroom furniture segment, the United States has lost 106,000 jobs in the past four years -- including more than 16,000 factory jobs in North Carolina -- according to the U.S. Department of Labor....
--MSNBC, from The Business Journal of the Greater Triad Area (North Carolina)
What's odd about this -- and about Bush's warning to Taiwan -- is that Bush and the furniture dealers (and other retailers, from Wal-Mart on down) clearly no longer fear that there'll be a public outcry. Some rightists still mistrust China, and some on the left worry about human-rights violations and lost American jobs, but the average American wants that $29 DVD player and doesn't seem angry at China the way, not so long ago, many Americans were angry at Japan.
Part of the problem, I think, is that average Americans can't figure out what would save American jobs -- protectionism? free trade? unionism? huge tax cuts for the rich? So Americans just shrug and, as long as they're employed, spend.
I can't figure it out either. I'd love to tick off a progressive laundry list of solutions, but the relentless ratcheting down of costs by corporations is a trend that isn't going to be reversed by one or two successful union organizing campaigns, or "living wage" laws. I fear that it's going to have to get a lot worse before people are really motivated to take steps to turn it back, and at that point it may require a (literal) class war.
This is a shock: I completely agree with Jonah Goldberg about something. This is another shock: I think you will too.
Over at The Corner at National Review Online he cites a short article from PoliticsNH.com:
Ralph Nader, a guest of presidential candidate U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich, stood outside the press room of Tuesday’s debate telling reporters he’ll make a decision whether to enter his own name in the race for the White House early next year.
Nader explained that he is waiting for the Democratic and Republican National Committees to formally respond to a 25-page agenda that he proposed to them in recent weeks.
He will make the agenda public when he gets a response, he said.
Nader said he is expecting a reply from both organizations sometime in mid-December.
“I’m going to get a response,” he said. “The question is: what’s the quality.” ...
Goldberg's response:
I've got a high quality formal response for him, but I'm not sure it's anatomically possible.
He took the words right out of my mouth.
Over at The Corner at National Review Online he cites a short article from PoliticsNH.com:
Ralph Nader, a guest of presidential candidate U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich, stood outside the press room of Tuesday’s debate telling reporters he’ll make a decision whether to enter his own name in the race for the White House early next year.
Nader explained that he is waiting for the Democratic and Republican National Committees to formally respond to a 25-page agenda that he proposed to them in recent weeks.
He will make the agenda public when he gets a response, he said.
Nader said he is expecting a reply from both organizations sometime in mid-December.
“I’m going to get a response,” he said. “The question is: what’s the quality.” ...
Goldberg's response:
I've got a high quality formal response for him, but I'm not sure it's anatomically possible.
He took the words right out of my mouth.
This is shameful:
Prosecutors Say It's Unclear Papers Chaplain Carried Were Classified
The criminal proceedings against Capt. James J. Yee, the former Muslim chaplain at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, fell into confusion on Tuesday and stalled as the military prosecutors asked for extra time to determine whether documents that were found in Captain Yee's luggage when he was leaving the base were, in fact, classified.
The hearing was postponed until Jan. 19 to give the prosecutors time to review the documents that set off a major investigation into whether Captain Yee was a spy, a contention from which the government has since emphatically distanced itself....
Officials placed Captain Yee in solitary confinement for nearly three months in a naval brig while they completed their investigation into possible espionage. Maj. Scott Sikes, one of Captain Yee's defense lawyers, said on Tuesday that military prosecutors once told him that they might seek the death penalty in the case.
But when the investigation was completed last month and Captain Yee was released, the military did not bring any serious espionage case....
--New York Times
Prosecutors Say It's Unclear Papers Chaplain Carried Were Classified
The criminal proceedings against Capt. James J. Yee, the former Muslim chaplain at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, fell into confusion on Tuesday and stalled as the military prosecutors asked for extra time to determine whether documents that were found in Captain Yee's luggage when he was leaving the base were, in fact, classified.
The hearing was postponed until Jan. 19 to give the prosecutors time to review the documents that set off a major investigation into whether Captain Yee was a spy, a contention from which the government has since emphatically distanced itself....
Officials placed Captain Yee in solitary confinement for nearly three months in a naval brig while they completed their investigation into possible espionage. Maj. Scott Sikes, one of Captain Yee's defense lawyers, said on Tuesday that military prosecutors once told him that they might seek the death penalty in the case.
But when the investigation was completed last month and Captain Yee was released, the military did not bring any serious espionage case....
--New York Times
Well, this didn't take long....
California's already battered credit rating suffered another downgrade from a Wall Street rating agency that criticized Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's decision to cut car taxes without any plan to pay for the move.
Moody's Investors Service said Tuesday that little has changed since Schwarzenegger won the Oct. 7 recall election, and the state has a "continuing inability to reach political consensus on solutions to its budget and financial problems." ...
Moody's analysts said the state's deficit will balloon by $7.5 billion this year because of the car tax reduction if no other steps are taken. Tuesday's downgrade mirrors one imposed last summer by Standard & Poor's and a more recent poor rating from Wall Street's other big credit agency, Fitch Ratings.
California has had the lowest credit rating among all 50 states for most of the last year. The low rating could cost taxpayers millions of dollars in higher interest payments on the billions of dollars the state will likely need to borrow in the coming months.
--AP
California's already battered credit rating suffered another downgrade from a Wall Street rating agency that criticized Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's decision to cut car taxes without any plan to pay for the move.
Moody's Investors Service said Tuesday that little has changed since Schwarzenegger won the Oct. 7 recall election, and the state has a "continuing inability to reach political consensus on solutions to its budget and financial problems." ...
Moody's analysts said the state's deficit will balloon by $7.5 billion this year because of the car tax reduction if no other steps are taken. Tuesday's downgrade mirrors one imposed last summer by Standard & Poor's and a more recent poor rating from Wall Street's other big credit agency, Fitch Ratings.
California has had the lowest credit rating among all 50 states for most of the last year. The low rating could cost taxpayers millions of dollars in higher interest payments on the billions of dollars the state will likely need to borrow in the coming months.
--AP
A new Quinnipiac poll has some good news for the president -- his lead over various Democrats has (probably as the result of economic and turkey hype) expanded somewhat.
But here's what I want to know: If Howard Dean is, among the top contenders, uniquely unelectable, why is he trailing Bush by roughly the same margins as the guys who are seen as more mainstream?
Here are Bush's leads, according to Quinnipiac:
* 51 -- 40 percent over Dean
* 51 -- 40 percent over Lieberman
* 51 -- 39 percent over Kerry
* 53 -- 38 percent over Gephardt
* 50 -- 41 percent over Clark
Raise your hand if you see a statistically significant difference.
But here's what I want to know: If Howard Dean is, among the top contenders, uniquely unelectable, why is he trailing Bush by roughly the same margins as the guys who are seen as more mainstream?
Here are Bush's leads, according to Quinnipiac:
* 51 -- 40 percent over Dean
* 51 -- 40 percent over Lieberman
* 51 -- 39 percent over Kerry
* 53 -- 38 percent over Gephardt
* 50 -- 41 percent over Clark
Raise your hand if you see a statistically significant difference.
Even Nancy Reagan doesn't want her husband to replace FDR on the dime -- but proponents of the Reagan dime aren't going to rest. Now they want to put Reagan on some of the dimes, while leaving FDR on others. Read all about it here. Isn't it great that we now have world peace and prosperity and our legislators can spend their days worrying about things like this?
It's a big headline on the title screen of the New York Times Web site, and it's a front-page story in the print edition: Restaurant Hiring May Lead the Way to Wider Job Gains. The story begins:
The restaurant industry has gone on a hiring spree over the last four months, suggesting that broader gains in the job market could be on the way.
But go to the story and look at the graph. It's tucked away on the side of the page; in the print edition it's on the jump, on page C2. The increases in employment this year are less than they were in January 2002 -- when increases absolutely weren't an early sign of a general job boom -- and are much less than those in 1991 and 1992 (a period that technically wasn't recessionary but sure felt like a recession for a lot of workers).
This hiring does suggest that we've touched bottom -- but it sure doesn't look like the sign of a boom.
The restaurant industry has gone on a hiring spree over the last four months, suggesting that broader gains in the job market could be on the way.
But go to the story and look at the graph. It's tucked away on the side of the page; in the print edition it's on the jump, on page C2. The increases in employment this year are less than they were in January 2002 -- when increases absolutely weren't an early sign of a general job boom -- and are much less than those in 1991 and 1992 (a period that technically wasn't recessionary but sure felt like a recession for a lot of workers).
This hiring does suggest that we've touched bottom -- but it sure doesn't look like the sign of a boom.
Tuesday, December 09, 2003
Earlier today I posted, then deleted, a grumble about what seems to be the premature end of the Democratic nomination process. I deleted it when I read this asinine column by Slate's William Saletan and realized that what I'd written implied that I share his view -- which is that Al Gore somehow did harm to democracy by endorsing Howard Dean.
I do think that people who aren't actively involved in the political process, or who aren't willing or able to spend a lot of time poring over political news, are likely to feel alienated if the nominee in what seemed to be a wide-open contest is all but decided before a single vote is cast. But that's not Al Gore's fault, as Saletan stupidly argues -- it's the media's fault for overemphasizing the horse race (and doling out coverage based on who's up in the polls) while showing little or no interest in informing the public about policy differences among candidates.
(As Atrios reveals in painful detail, in tonight's debate it took nineteen questions before a candidate was asked anything about policy.)
If you run a good campaign in the months leading up to the early primaries and caucuses, you should do well in the early primaries and caucuses -- you shouldn't already be declared the winner before those votes are cast. That's how it should work, but the press likes to anoint a winner prematurely. Gore is taking advantage of that, which he has every right to do. He's not preventing anyone from voting for another candidate, as Saletan (I'm not making this up) implies.
Of course, surprises are still possible. But I do suspect this thing is over. However, it might not be if the press took its responsibilities seriously.
I do think that people who aren't actively involved in the political process, or who aren't willing or able to spend a lot of time poring over political news, are likely to feel alienated if the nominee in what seemed to be a wide-open contest is all but decided before a single vote is cast. But that's not Al Gore's fault, as Saletan stupidly argues -- it's the media's fault for overemphasizing the horse race (and doling out coverage based on who's up in the polls) while showing little or no interest in informing the public about policy differences among candidates.
(As Atrios reveals in painful detail, in tonight's debate it took nineteen questions before a candidate was asked anything about policy.)
If you run a good campaign in the months leading up to the early primaries and caucuses, you should do well in the early primaries and caucuses -- you shouldn't already be declared the winner before those votes are cast. That's how it should work, but the press likes to anoint a winner prematurely. Gore is taking advantage of that, which he has every right to do. He's not preventing anyone from voting for another candidate, as Saletan (I'm not making this up) implies.
Of course, surprises are still possible. But I do suspect this thing is over. However, it might not be if the press took its responsibilities seriously.
Housing boom about to go bust?
Shares of home builders tanked on Tuesday after Washington Mutual Inc., the No. 3 U.S. mortgage lender, cut its earnings outlook and said it would slash 2,900 jobs early next year, analysts said.
Although analysts said it was unclear whether the savings and loan company's business slowdown was due to a drop in mortgage lending or refinancing, the disappointing news was enough to help throw investors in home builders off balance.
"It seems to be a combination of that and (trading) ahead of the Fed's move," Natexis Bleichroeder analyst Barbara Allen said earlier in the day.
However, even after the Federal Reserve said it would hold interest rates at 45-year lows, housing stocks continued to trade lower....
--Reuters
I guess those 2,900 people who worked for Washington Mutual through the huge wave of refinancings were just temps. Too bad they probably didn't know that.
Shares of home builders tanked on Tuesday after Washington Mutual Inc., the No. 3 U.S. mortgage lender, cut its earnings outlook and said it would slash 2,900 jobs early next year, analysts said.
Although analysts said it was unclear whether the savings and loan company's business slowdown was due to a drop in mortgage lending or refinancing, the disappointing news was enough to help throw investors in home builders off balance.
"It seems to be a combination of that and (trading) ahead of the Fed's move," Natexis Bleichroeder analyst Barbara Allen said earlier in the day.
However, even after the Federal Reserve said it would hold interest rates at 45-year lows, housing stocks continued to trade lower....
--Reuters
I guess those 2,900 people who worked for Washington Mutual through the huge wave of refinancings were just temps. Too bad they probably didn't know that.
From AP (emphasis mine):
Iraq's interim government voted Tuesday to establish a war crimes tribunal to prosecute top members of Saddam Hussein's regime, two people who attended the meeting said....
One Governing Council member, Younadem Kana, told The Associated Press that the court's proceedings would be open to the Iraqi public - and possibly broadcast on television....
The law calls for Iraqi judges to hear cases presented by Iraqi lawyers, with international experts serving only as advisers....
It remained unclear whether the law included the death penalty, although Kana said most council members agreed it should - "like in Texas."...
Yikes!
(Link via Sadly, No!)
Iraq's interim government voted Tuesday to establish a war crimes tribunal to prosecute top members of Saddam Hussein's regime, two people who attended the meeting said....
One Governing Council member, Younadem Kana, told The Associated Press that the court's proceedings would be open to the Iraqi public - and possibly broadcast on television....
The law calls for Iraqi judges to hear cases presented by Iraqi lawyers, with international experts serving only as advisers....
It remained unclear whether the law included the death penalty, although Kana said most council members agreed it should - "like in Texas."...
Yikes!
(Link via Sadly, No!)
Washington Post, May 2, 2003:
Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said today that 8,000 U.S. forces in Afghanistan have ended major combat operations and will shift their focus to stabilizing and rebuilding the country.
CNN today:
The U.S. military has launched a major ground operation in Afghanistan in an effort to eliminate the remnants of al Qaeda and the Taliban regime overthrown in 2001.
Military spokesman Lt. Col. Bryan Hilferty described "Operation Avalanche", which began over the weekend, as the largest ground operation yet in Afghanistan.
(Thanks to Cursor for this; also see Rational Enquirer.)
Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said today that 8,000 U.S. forces in Afghanistan have ended major combat operations and will shift their focus to stabilizing and rebuilding the country.
CNN today:
The U.S. military has launched a major ground operation in Afghanistan in an effort to eliminate the remnants of al Qaeda and the Taliban regime overthrown in 2001.
Military spokesman Lt. Col. Bryan Hilferty described "Operation Avalanche", which began over the weekend, as the largest ground operation yet in Afghanistan.
(Thanks to Cursor for this; also see Rational Enquirer.)
A USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll shows somewhat higher approval ratings for the Medicare bill than the ABC/Washington Post poll I cite directly below -- but it's still not good news for the Bush administration. USA Today reports:
A 52% majority of those surveyed said they favored the bill; 30% opposed it. Among those age 65 and older, support was lower: 46% in favor, 39% opposed.
But
* Eight in 10 said they were worried that the benefit doesn't provide enough help. A 56% majority of those 65 and older were very concerned about that.
* Nearly two-thirds expressed a conflicting fear ? that it will cost the government too much. But concerns about coverage trumped deficit fears. When asked whether excessive cost or inadequate coverage was their greater concern, 75% said coverage.
* Three-fourths were worried that the provisions are too complicated for seniors to understand. Among seniors, 84% were concerned about that.
A look at the poll numbers shows that only 15% of senior citizens think the bill will help them financially -- 21% think it will actually hurt them, and 58% think it will not have much effect.
Also, 73% of seniors (and 66% of all poll respondents) are concerned that the bill could force some Medicare recipients into HMOs.
And 59% of seniors think the bill will do more to help drug companies than to help recipients; 28% think the opposite.
I'm starting to suspect that you won't hear a word about this bill at the Republican convention next year -- it'll be a skeleton in the closet, right next to the MISSION ACCOMPLISHED photo op. Alas, unlike that photo op, it's the law, and it really seems like a big nothing with a huge price tag.
A 52% majority of those surveyed said they favored the bill; 30% opposed it. Among those age 65 and older, support was lower: 46% in favor, 39% opposed.
But
* Eight in 10 said they were worried that the benefit doesn't provide enough help. A 56% majority of those 65 and older were very concerned about that.
* Nearly two-thirds expressed a conflicting fear ? that it will cost the government too much. But concerns about coverage trumped deficit fears. When asked whether excessive cost or inadequate coverage was their greater concern, 75% said coverage.
* Three-fourths were worried that the provisions are too complicated for seniors to understand. Among seniors, 84% were concerned about that.
A look at the poll numbers shows that only 15% of senior citizens think the bill will help them financially -- 21% think it will actually hurt them, and 58% think it will not have much effect.
Also, 73% of seniors (and 66% of all poll respondents) are concerned that the bill could force some Medicare recipients into HMOs.
And 59% of seniors think the bill will do more to help drug companies than to help recipients; 28% think the opposite.
I'm starting to suspect that you won't hear a word about this bill at the Republican convention next year -- it'll be a skeleton in the closet, right next to the MISSION ACCOMPLISHED photo op. Alas, unlike that photo op, it's the law, and it really seems like a big nothing with a huge price tag.
Monday, December 08, 2003
The chattering classes told us that Bush stole the Medicare issue from the Democrats. Apparently somebody forgot to explain this to the voters:
Americans are casting a skeptical eye on the Medicare changes signed into law by President Bush, according to an ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll. More disapprove than approve of the legislation, with doubts peaking among senior citizens and among those who've been following the issue most closely.
Among all Americans, 38 percent disapprove of the Medicare changes, slightly more than the 32 percent who approve (many, 30 percent, are withholding judgment). But it's a broader spread — 47 percent to 26 percent disapproval — among senior citizens, and a similar 46 percent to 32 percent disapproval in the next age group, 55- to 64-year-olds.
Moreover, disapproval is highest among the one-sixth of the public — many seniors among them — who have been following the issue most closely. Most people in this highest-attention group, 56 percent, disapprove of the plan; indeed, many of them disapprove "strongly." People who know more about it, this result suggests, like it less....
It follows, then, that the legislation has not delivered any immediate political boost to the president. His overall job approval rating in this poll is 53 percent, not up and if anything slightly down from its recent level (57 percent last month and 56 percent in October)....
--ABC News
Americans are casting a skeptical eye on the Medicare changes signed into law by President Bush, according to an ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll. More disapprove than approve of the legislation, with doubts peaking among senior citizens and among those who've been following the issue most closely.
Among all Americans, 38 percent disapprove of the Medicare changes, slightly more than the 32 percent who approve (many, 30 percent, are withholding judgment). But it's a broader spread — 47 percent to 26 percent disapproval — among senior citizens, and a similar 46 percent to 32 percent disapproval in the next age group, 55- to 64-year-olds.
Moreover, disapproval is highest among the one-sixth of the public — many seniors among them — who have been following the issue most closely. Most people in this highest-attention group, 56 percent, disapprove of the plan; indeed, many of them disapprove "strongly." People who know more about it, this result suggests, like it less....
It follows, then, that the legislation has not delivered any immediate political boost to the president. His overall job approval rating in this poll is 53 percent, not up and if anything slightly down from its recent level (57 percent last month and 56 percent in October)....
--ABC News
In The New Yorker, John Cassidy catches The New York Times falling for the hype:
Things are looking up --according to George W. Bush and the Times, anyway. Last Tuesday, the paper led its front page with this sunny triple-decker: MANUFACTURING AT HIGHEST LEVEL IN TWO DECADES; HIRING OUTLOOK IS UPBEAT; STOCKS AT 18-MONTH PEAK ON RUN OF POSITIVE DATA --BUSH OPTIMISTIC. The headline's main claim, however, was inaccurate. It misinterpreted an economic indicator that is designed to gauge whether factories are churning out more or less stuff than they did last month, not absolute levels of production. The most reliable measure of how manufacturing is doing is the Federal Reserve's index of industrial production, which in October was 112.7, compared with a high of 118.4 in June of 2000. The November figure comes out next week. A six-point jump isn't impossible, but it would be virtually unprecedented.
What we can be sure of is that most manufacturing companies are still operating well below capacity, and that millions of manufacturing jobs have been lost. In October, 73.5 per cent of plants and equipment were in active use. Three years ago, more than eighty per cent were. When President Bush took office, about 17.1 million Americans worked in factories; today, 14.5 million do. Last month, another seventeen thousand manufacturing jobs disappeared. Manufacturing employment has now fallen for forty straight months.
Oops.
Things are looking up --according to George W. Bush and the Times, anyway. Last Tuesday, the paper led its front page with this sunny triple-decker: MANUFACTURING AT HIGHEST LEVEL IN TWO DECADES; HIRING OUTLOOK IS UPBEAT; STOCKS AT 18-MONTH PEAK ON RUN OF POSITIVE DATA --BUSH OPTIMISTIC. The headline's main claim, however, was inaccurate. It misinterpreted an economic indicator that is designed to gauge whether factories are churning out more or less stuff than they did last month, not absolute levels of production. The most reliable measure of how manufacturing is doing is the Federal Reserve's index of industrial production, which in October was 112.7, compared with a high of 118.4 in June of 2000. The November figure comes out next week. A six-point jump isn't impossible, but it would be virtually unprecedented.
What we can be sure of is that most manufacturing companies are still operating well below capacity, and that millions of manufacturing jobs have been lost. In October, 73.5 per cent of plants and equipment were in active use. Three years ago, more than eighty per cent were. When President Bush took office, about 17.1 million Americans worked in factories; today, 14.5 million do. Last month, another seventeen thousand manufacturing jobs disappeared. Manufacturing employment has now fallen for forty straight months.
Oops.
The schools! We weren't talking about the schools! Every night on the news -- casualties, casualties, casualties! Nothing about the schools!
Georgia Democrat Jim Marshall ... and a bipartisan group of six other representatives just returned from Iraq. They charged that reporters have developed an overall negative tone and a "police blotter" mind-set, stressing attacks and little else. Ranking member Ike Skelton, D.-Mo., said he was impressed with the flexibility and innovation of the American military, including 3,100 projects in northern Iraq, from soccer fields to schools ...
--syndicated columnist John Leo, 9/30/03
Six months ago, nearly all of Iraq's schools were closed, and many primary schools lacked electrical wiring and plumbing and windows. Today, all 22 universities and 43 technical institutes and colleges are open, as are nearly all primary and secondary schools in the country. Earlier this year we said we would rehabilitate 1,000 schools by the time school started. This month, just days before the first day of class, our coalition and our Iraqi partners had refurbished over 1,500 schools.
--President's radio address, 10/18/03
Oops:
On its corporate Web site, under a page titled "A Fresh Start for Iraqi School Children," Bechtel Group showcases sparkling new classrooms filled with happy, young Iraqi students.
But the reality is far different, according to Army investigators.
"In almost every case, the paint jobs were done in a hurry, causing more damage to the appearance of the school than in terms of providing a finish that will protect the structure," a recent Army investigation into Bechtel's work found. "In one case, the paint job actually damaged critical lab equipment, making it unusable."...
During repairs, "reports started coming in about poor quality," said 422nd Civil Affairs Battalion Maj. Linda Scharf, who was responsible for the schools in question, and who started fielding calls from concerned teachers and headmasters.
"So I asked one of my teams to go verify the rumors," Scharf said. "They took their digital camera, and the reality turned out to be worse than the rumors."
What they found: The subcontractors Bechtel hired left paint everywhere - on the floors, on desks, all over windows. The classrooms were filthy, the school's desks and chairs were thrown out into the playground and left, broken. Windows were left damaged, and bathrooms that were reportedly fixed were left in broken, unsanitary condition.
"Would you allow your child to use that bathroom? I wouldn't," Scharf said, pointing to a photograph of a stained, broken hole in a dirty, tiled stall.
..."Because it is an American company, they didn't allow anyone to control them," [Iraqi Education Ministry city planner Israa Mohammed] said....
--Scripps Howard News Service
(Scripps Howard story via Atrios.)
Georgia Democrat Jim Marshall ... and a bipartisan group of six other representatives just returned from Iraq. They charged that reporters have developed an overall negative tone and a "police blotter" mind-set, stressing attacks and little else. Ranking member Ike Skelton, D.-Mo., said he was impressed with the flexibility and innovation of the American military, including 3,100 projects in northern Iraq, from soccer fields to schools ...
--syndicated columnist John Leo, 9/30/03
Six months ago, nearly all of Iraq's schools were closed, and many primary schools lacked electrical wiring and plumbing and windows. Today, all 22 universities and 43 technical institutes and colleges are open, as are nearly all primary and secondary schools in the country. Earlier this year we said we would rehabilitate 1,000 schools by the time school started. This month, just days before the first day of class, our coalition and our Iraqi partners had refurbished over 1,500 schools.
--President's radio address, 10/18/03
Oops:
On its corporate Web site, under a page titled "A Fresh Start for Iraqi School Children," Bechtel Group showcases sparkling new classrooms filled with happy, young Iraqi students.
But the reality is far different, according to Army investigators.
"In almost every case, the paint jobs were done in a hurry, causing more damage to the appearance of the school than in terms of providing a finish that will protect the structure," a recent Army investigation into Bechtel's work found. "In one case, the paint job actually damaged critical lab equipment, making it unusable."...
During repairs, "reports started coming in about poor quality," said 422nd Civil Affairs Battalion Maj. Linda Scharf, who was responsible for the schools in question, and who started fielding calls from concerned teachers and headmasters.
"So I asked one of my teams to go verify the rumors," Scharf said. "They took their digital camera, and the reality turned out to be worse than the rumors."
What they found: The subcontractors Bechtel hired left paint everywhere - on the floors, on desks, all over windows. The classrooms were filthy, the school's desks and chairs were thrown out into the playground and left, broken. Windows were left damaged, and bathrooms that were reportedly fixed were left in broken, unsanitary condition.
"Would you allow your child to use that bathroom? I wouldn't," Scharf said, pointing to a photograph of a stained, broken hole in a dirty, tiled stall.
..."Because it is an American company, they didn't allow anyone to control them," [Iraqi Education Ministry city planner Israa Mohammed] said....
--Scripps Howard News Service
(Scripps Howard story via Atrios.)
The Independent reports that there's a bit of skepticism about the Iraqi who's identified himself as the source of the WMDs-in-45-minutes claim in Britain's dossier about Saddam:
Officials within the Iraqi occupation authorities are puzzling over a British newspaper's interview with a man purporting to be an Iraqi colonel who said he believed he was the source of the Government's claim that Saddam Hussein could launch weapons of mass destruction within 45 minutes.
...The interviewee was identified only as Lt-Col al-Dabbagh, 40, who was the "head of an Iraqi air defence unit in the western desert". He was also interviewed by the American network channel, NBC....
...sections of the transcript of the NBC interview that the network did not broadcast were aired on the ITV News Channel, which has a partnership with NBC. In one, the colonel was asked by NBC's Baghdad correspondent why he was so sure that these were chemical or biological weapons. His reply suggests that he was not, in fact, sure at all.
"We cannot determine exactly, but the procedures taken show that these were indeed WMD," he said. "It might have been chemical or biological but it was definitely unconventional weapons."
In another section, broadcast by ITV, the colonel says: "The instructions from Saddam were clear. When you get to a critical point where the survival of the country is at stake then you can use these weapons. All weapons starting from the common knife all the way up to nuclear weapons can be used.That was the instruction."
As it has long been known that Iraq's armed forces did not possess nuclear weapons, this raises further doubts about the unnamed "colonel's" credibility....
Please recall that before this story broke there was intelligence, attributable to one unnamed Iraqi source (but otherwise unverified), that Saddam's forces could launch battlefield (not long-distance) chemical or biological weapons on 45 minutes' notice -- and now there's intelligence, attributable to one named Iraqi source (but otherwise unverified), that Saddam's forces could launch battlefield (not long-distance) chemical or biological weapons on 45 minutes' notice. So there's not much new here. Yet the New York Post gave the story a front-page banner headline and other conservatives are treating it as big news.
Incidentally, as Sadly, No! notes, The Independent reported yesterday that Colonel al-Dabbagh has been identified as "an advisor to the Iraqi Governing Council." Think this guy does anything useful for the Iraqi people when he's not pumping self-aggrandizing stories to the British and American press?
Officials within the Iraqi occupation authorities are puzzling over a British newspaper's interview with a man purporting to be an Iraqi colonel who said he believed he was the source of the Government's claim that Saddam Hussein could launch weapons of mass destruction within 45 minutes.
...The interviewee was identified only as Lt-Col al-Dabbagh, 40, who was the "head of an Iraqi air defence unit in the western desert". He was also interviewed by the American network channel, NBC....
...sections of the transcript of the NBC interview that the network did not broadcast were aired on the ITV News Channel, which has a partnership with NBC. In one, the colonel was asked by NBC's Baghdad correspondent why he was so sure that these were chemical or biological weapons. His reply suggests that he was not, in fact, sure at all.
"We cannot determine exactly, but the procedures taken show that these were indeed WMD," he said. "It might have been chemical or biological but it was definitely unconventional weapons."
In another section, broadcast by ITV, the colonel says: "The instructions from Saddam were clear. When you get to a critical point where the survival of the country is at stake then you can use these weapons. All weapons starting from the common knife all the way up to nuclear weapons can be used.That was the instruction."
As it has long been known that Iraq's armed forces did not possess nuclear weapons, this raises further doubts about the unnamed "colonel's" credibility....
Please recall that before this story broke there was intelligence, attributable to one unnamed Iraqi source (but otherwise unverified), that Saddam's forces could launch battlefield (not long-distance) chemical or biological weapons on 45 minutes' notice -- and now there's intelligence, attributable to one named Iraqi source (but otherwise unverified), that Saddam's forces could launch battlefield (not long-distance) chemical or biological weapons on 45 minutes' notice. So there's not much new here. Yet the New York Post gave the story a front-page banner headline and other conservatives are treating it as big news.
Incidentally, as Sadly, No! notes, The Independent reported yesterday that Colonel al-Dabbagh has been identified as "an advisor to the Iraqi Governing Council." Think this guy does anything useful for the Iraqi people when he's not pumping self-aggrandizing stories to the British and American press?
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