I THINK TRUMP'S POLL NUMBERS HAVE BOTTOMED OUT

President Trump's job approval numbers are quite bad right now: 42.3% approval/54.7% disapproval (-12.4%) at Real Clear Polling, 41.4%/54.8% (-13.4%) at Nate Silver's site, 40.0%/56.1% (-16.1%) according to G. Elliott Morris, 39%/57% (-18%) according to The Economist. I'd love to believe that this is an irreversible downward spiral, but I suspect that Trump's numbers have bottomed out, at least for now.

One obvious reason is the end of the government shutdown. Shutdowns always drag down the approval ratings of the politicians in charge, and those numbers tend to bounce back after the shutdowns end. Of course, there could be another shutdown early next year, but for now, this won't be a drag on Trump's approval.

I know you'll say that Trump is handling the Jeffrey Epstein situation badly, and that all of America knows this, but I think Trump has begun shoring up his base, even if the rest of us recognize that he's acting like a man with a lot to hide. CNN's Harry Enten recently made note of a late-September Marist poll in which only 45% of Republicans said trhey approved of how the Trump administration is handling the Epstein situation. But remember what I told you yesterday: the one thing Republicans care about in the Epstein case is punishing Democrats. Trump is doing exactly what they want him do: ordering Attorney General Pam Bondi to investigate Epstein's ties to Democratic politicians, donors, and advisers. This seems like a shameless attempt at blame-shifting, but when I see reporters on the still-respectable news side of The Washington Post prominently playing up the story of a non-voting House Democrat, Stacey Plaskett of the Virgin Islands, texting with Epstein during a 2019 congressional hearing -- which, to be fair, is very bad! -- I realize that the mainstream media will leap at any Epstein story that embarrasses Democrats, right alongside the right-wing media. Even if the general public isn't distracted, GOP voters will be.

Trump's retreat on some food tariffs is a move I wasn't expecting from him, and it makes me wonder whether Trump would decide not to reimpose tariffs that are likely to be blocked by the Supreme Court, even though, as The New York Times has reported, he'll be able to do so under laws that aren't at issue in the case currently before the Court. Prices are highly unlikely to fall as much as they've risen, but he might at least interrupt some of the increases.

Trumpism will continue to be a disaster, and the president will soon find fresh new ways to alienate voters. But within the next few weeks, I think his numbers will stop declining, and will probably improve, sad to say.