TRUMP'S SUPPORTERS DON'T THINK THE TRUMP PRESIDENCY HAS REALLY STARTED YET

I'm reading the latest New York Times focus group -- this one is with Hispanic Trump voters -- and seven out of twelve participants aren't happy:

Mostly it's the economy. Esteban ("22, Texas, Republican, corrections") says:

My biggest concern is the cost of just basic needs. In the time that I’ve started working, going to school, I’ve seen the prices of everything jump up. I voted for Donald Trump initially because he promised to help the working class, but from what I’ve been seeing, I don’t think we’re anywhere close to seeing any benefit from the policies.

Jose ("45, Ind., Republican, transportation") says:

Everything is very uncertain right now. The tariffs, they might work. I’m not saying they won’t. But if you look at the cost of everything right now, basic things, can you guys imagine what it’s going to be like in 10 years? National debt, what is it going to be like in 10 years? What are we actually doing for our kids to give them a better future?

Adriana ("53, N.Y., Republican, customer service") says:

It’s not going good. Prices are going up. Nobody’s paychecks are really going up. Things that once seemed pretty affordable now seem almost unattainable. A decent vacation costs a great deal. But I believe, in time, it will balance itself out. Right now, we’re just on a little shaky ground financially.

This creates some cognitive dissonance. When she's asked for "one word that describes how you feel about how things are going in the country these days," Angela ("58, Calif., Republican, business owner") says, "Great." Later she says that Trump is "on a roll." But eventually she says:

Inflation is rising higher than what salaries can keep up with. You go to the grocery store, it’s crazy. I’m in California, so gas prices — crazy. I think we’re hurting. I think the economy is really bad.

How does she reconcile these two beliefs? Here's how:

I said things were going great because I believe the tariffs put in a more equitable trade with these countries who have for so many years have taken advantage of the U.S.A.

For Trump, the beauty of the tariffs is that he can just keep saying that they haven't paid off yet. Jeanette ("42, Fla., Republican, administrator") thinks they will:

We’re one of the largest consumer bases in the world. We’re going to get what he wants eventually. If these businesses do come back, we’re going to have high prices for a little bit, but it’ll eventually come down because he’s going to give them credits to have them coming back to the United States. If mortgage rates come down, that’ll help. Economies are bad all over the world right now. We’re still doing better than other countries.

In other areaa, Adrianna says:

Technology is advancing. It will be better. Right now, we’re just in the midst of figuring it out and trying to get through one problem at a time.

And overall, Joe ("69, Colo., Republican, retired") says:

We have a good president. If Congress will just get behind him and back him up, I think there’s a lot of good he could do for us.

To many of us, it seems as if every week under Trump is a decade, but to these voters, the Trump presidency has barely begun. They think it's way too soon to judge him.

Trump has persuaded his voters that he has big ideas that we can't really judge him on for years. I'd call this a con, but I think he actually believes in tariffs and expects them to deliver a glorious payoff. He also seems to be wrapping himself in the mantle of AI and crypto. And he implies that the true payoff from all those ICE arrests hasn't happened yet.

Barack Obama and Ronald Reagan also sold themselves as leaders with big ideas that needed time to pay off. Joe Biden could have sold himself this way, but he wasn't a charismatic leader, and he simply wasn't capable of holding forth at great length about how his policies would pay off in the long term.

Trump's ideas are terrible, of course, but most people don't know that. Many believe that the terribleness they're seeing now will change when Trumpism fully takes effect. They don't realize that the terribleness is Trumpism.

When asked if they could ever imagine voting for a Democrat again, eleven of the focus group participants say no. Some of them could change their minds about that, of course, as America gets worse. But the changeover might require a Democrat who seems to have a big vision.

Assuming we ever have fair elections again, I don't think a successful Democrat needs to have one big idea -- I think the Democrat needs to have many big ideas. Trump has ideas about everything imaginable. They're awful ideas, but he sure sounds confident describing them. He's persuaded millions of Americans that he's a visionary and an ideas guy, and that's buying him time. A successful Democrat, if we can find one, will probably need to sound visionary, too.