THE CRUELTY IS THE POINT. WILL TRUMP BE CRUEL ENOUGH FOR HIS BASE?

NBC News has posted a preview of Kristen Welker's interview with Donald Trump, and I'm not sure MAGA voters will be happy with everything Trump says.

First, on MAGA's enemies list:

... [Trump] delivered something of a mixed message when it comes to political retribution. Trump made clear he believes he’s been wronged, but he also sounded a conciliatory note, saying he will not appoint a special prosecutor to investigate [President] Biden. “I’m not looking to go back into the past,” he said. “Retribution will be through success.”

On the one hand, he

singled out people he believes crossed the line in investigating his actions, calling special counsel Jack Smith “very corrupt.”

Members of the House committee that examined the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol were “political thugs and, you know, creeps,” committing offenses in going about their work, he said.

“For what they did, honestly, they should go to jail,” Trump said.

But on the other hand:

Asked if he would direct the Justice Department and FBI to punish them, Trump said, “No, not at all. I think that they’ll have to look at that, but I’m not going to — I’m going to focus on drill, baby, drill” — a reference to tapping more oil supplies.

If Biden wants to do it, he could pardon the committee members, Trump said, “and maybe he should.”

MAGA voters will be thrilled when Trump pardons the January 6 insurrectionists, which he told Welker he'll do on Day One. (We all should have known that.) However, if he leaves current and former anti-Trump officeholders and investigators of Trump crimes unpunished, MAGA will be very disappointed. Many of those figures will continue to speak out. New senator Adam Schiff will probably challenge some Trump appointees. This won't go over well in Trump country.

On immigration, Trump will mostly please the base.

... he didn’t flinch in saying he will carry out mass deportation of those who are living in the country illegally.

First will be convicted criminals, he said.

(After the first raids, we'll get footage of weapons stockpiles. We'll be told that the immigrants who have been rounded up were terrible criminals. That may be true -- or the cops might just tap into their own weapons stockpiles for the photo ops. It's a common police practice.)

MAGA will love this:

It’s also possible that American citizens will be caught up in the sweep and deported with family members who are here illegally, or could choose to go.

Asked about families with mixed immigration status, where some are in the U.S. legally and some illegally, Trump said, “I don’t want to be breaking up families, so the only way you don’t break up the family is you keep them together and you have to send them all back.”

However:

An exception might be the “Dreamers” — people who were brought to the U.S. illegally as children and have lived here for years. He voiced openness toward a legislative solution that would allow them to remain in the country.

“I will work with the Democrats on a plan,” he said, praising “Dreamers” who’ve gotten good jobs, started businesses and become successful residents. “We’re going to have to do something with them,” he said.

He won't really work with Democrats on a plan for the Dreamers. But merely hesitating to deport them will profoundly disappoint his base.

And Greg Sargent thinks he'll face corporate resistance to mass deportations:

Reuters reports that agriculture interests, which are heavily concentrated in GOP areas, are urging the incoming Trump administration to refrain from removing untold numbers of migrants working throughout the food supply chain, including in farming, dairy, and meatpacking....

Now over to Texas. NPR reports that various industries there fear that mass deportations could cripple them, particularly in construction, where nearly 300,000 undocumented immigrants toiled as of 2022.... Local analysts and executives want Trump to refrain from removing all these people or create new ways for them to work here legally....

Meanwhile, back in Georgia, Trump’s threat of mass deportations is awakening new awareness that undocumented immigrants drive industries like construction, landscaping, and agriculture, reports The Wall Street Journal. In Dalton, a town that backed Trump, fear is spreading that removals could “upend its economy and workforce.”

As I've said before, right-wingers like anecdotes and dislike data. No matter how much data you show them demonstrating the fact that immigrants commit fewer crimes than native-born Americans, they look at individual incidents -- crimes endlessly discussed on Fox News -- as all the evidence they need that "migrant crime" is at epidemic levels. They'll have the same response to Trump's deportation process: If they see a lot of footage of immigrants being rounded up and shipped out, they probably won't notice how many aren't being rounded up and shipped out.

I think Sargent is right about how this will work:

Exactly. Deportation raids in blue areas will allow Trump to boast that he's bringing pacification to urban cesspools with military-style force, complete with footage given to Fox News and other MAGA propagandists. Meanwhile some MAGA-friendly industries and areas will quietly secure forbearance.

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— Greg Sargent (@gregsargent.bsky.social) December 8, 2024 at 8:47 AM

My response to this:

"Quietly secure forbearance."

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— Steve M. (@stevemnomoremister.bsky.social) December 8, 2024 at 8:49 AM

But what if one of the crimes MAGA voters obsess over happens because a CEO or industry prevailed upon Trump to leave local immigrants alone? Will those crimes simply not be reported in the right-wing media? Or will Trump supporters see them as evidence that Mr. MAGA himself isn't MAGA enough and we need a real immigration hard-liner to clean up America?

In all likelihood, Trump will make his base happy even if he doesn't display maximum cruelty. He'll probably be more than sufficiently cruel as far as the base is concerned. But if they want even more, there's a chance that he might not deliver. And since we know he won't lower the price of eggs, he might not be quite the hero they expect. https://bsky.app/profile/gregsargent.bsky.social/post/3lcsdysh4y22z