Thursday, October 17, 2024

NO, VANCE AND THE PROJECT 2025 CABAL WON'T DEPOSE TRUMP IF HE WINS


Among liberals on social media, this has become conventional wisdom:

FORWARD TO DONALD: MAGA/GOP Project 2025 is set up to function best when, if you're elected, you are removed from office by Vance, using the 25th Amendment. The Lincoln Project spells it out for you right here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2TZ... The GOP knows you're an old loser & would dump you ASAP!

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— SANTA CLAUS (@santaclausalaska.bsky.social) October 5, 2024 at 11:41 PM


The linked ad from the Lincoln Project -- which is titled "Brutus" -- tells Trump:
If you win, J.D. will come for you. You won't see him until it's too late. He won't wait until you make a mistake. J.D.'s plot to invoke the 25th Amendment is already underway. Your cabinet betrayed you before. Why would it be different now?

... Republicans want someone younger, smarter, someone stable. A leader who will execute Project 2025 without your problems. Rupert's Wall Street Journal said, "Vance's version of Trump is better than the real thing." J.D. switched from Never Trump hater to your running mate in record time. You thought that was real? You think he won't stab you in the back to seize ten years of power in the White House? So yes, Donald, they really are out to get you.

And the one who will betray your presidency is right by your side.
Nahhh, it's not going to happen.

You all remember January 6, 2021. You remember how angry Trump's supporters were when they realized Congress was about to ratify Trump's defeat. How angry do you think they'll be if there's an attempt to remove him in a palace coup? Trumpers' immediate conclusion will be that George Soros and the World Economic Forum are trying to remove Trump from office, and that the vice president and the members of the Cabinet are swamp-dwelling, globalist, America-hating traitors.

Trumpers own guns. Trumpers know how to make fertilizer bombs. Would you want to be a Cabinet member who voted to remove Trump from office? Would you feel confident about the safety of your family?

And I wish more people would actually read the 25th Amendment. It's not long -- just five paragraphs. Yes, it says that the VP and the Cabinet can declare that the president is no longer fit to serve:
Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
But it also allows the president to respond by saying he is fit to serve -- at which point he becomes president again:
Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office....
Of course Trump will do that. Even if he's too far gone into illness or dementia to do it for himself, loyalists working for him will do it. Yes, I realize that many people in his White House will be more loyal to the radical project of restructuring American life than they are to Trump. But there will be many ride-or-die Trump loyalists, and they'll back him. (Even as he declines, Trump will make clear to these loyalists that they must never acknowledge any weakness on his part. That's how he thinks. And they'll agree, and act accordingly.)

So what happens then? Trump is restored to the presidency unless...
unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.
So they'll have to declare Trump unfit to serve again, further enraging the MAGA crazies. And then?
Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session. If the Congress ... determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.
So a two-thirds vote in both houses of Congress would be needed to remove Trump. As these votes approach, the death threats will shift to representatives, senators, and their families, especially Republicans. Maybe you think all Democrats will vote to remove Trump -- although I'm not sure why they'd do that if they believe Vance would be a more effective fascist than Trump. Even if all Democrats do vote to remove Trump, will Republicans dare, as gun-toting members of the MAGA army rally in the streets?

There's an alternate scenario:



I don't buy it. What can Vance do with pardons that Trump can't do himself with a Justice Department that bends to his will, as well as a Supreme Court that's infinitely willing to rewrite the Constitution in order to expand executive power? Also, Vance couldn't pardon Trump on non-federal charges in New York and Georgia, at least under the law as it exists now. The federal courts might twist the words of the Constitution to give Vance that power -- but why not just give it to Trump directly?

Trump wants to be free of legal liability, but he also wants the ego boost of being the most consequential person on earth. He won't cede that willingly. It would make him look weak -- the worst possible failing, in his eyes.

So if Trump wins, don't expect him to leave office early, unless it's in a pine box.
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