Wednesday, September 18, 2024

NO, REPUBLICANS DON'T RESENT KAMALA HARRIS'S "TWANG" BECAUSE THEY THINK SHE SOUNDS LIKE A WHITE SOUTHERNER

Elizabeth Spiers is one of the better op-ed writers at The New York Times and can be very sharp and feisty on social media. However, she's wrong about the reason Republicans resent the "twang" that sometimes shows up in Kamala Harris's speech:
So what’s really bothering Republicans? The answer has nothing to do with linguistic purity. It has everything to do with cultural stereotypes — and electoral math.

Studies show that people with Southern accents are often regarded as less intelligent, even by people who have those accents themselves.... There’s also a class bias; people associate deeper Southern accents with lower income....

When the speaker is white, some people hear a Southern accent as a marker of racism or other forms of intolerance. “The South did not invent racism,” the country musician B.J. Barham recently told me, “but every single racist thing you’ve ever seen said in the movie usually comes with this accent.”

... Republicans who think that white, possibly racist working-class people (or white people who believe themselves to be working class) are their base might feel that a Black Democrat using a Southern accent is stealing their shtick, or their votes.
No, Republicans aren't accusing Harris of trying to sound like a white Southerner. Spiers writes,
As John McWhorter has recently pointed out, what Ms. Harris was slipping into was Black English.
Spiers seem to think that Republicans don't know this. They do, and it's precisely what they resent, because they see Blackness as a privilege in American society.

Donald Trump certainly thinks so. He said as much in an April interview with Time magazine:
“If you look at the Biden Administration, they’re sort of against anybody depending on certain views,” Trump tells TIME.... “They’re against Catholics. They’re against a lot of different people... I think there is a definite anti-white feeling in this country and that can’t be allowed either.”

“I don’t think it would be a very tough thing to address, frankly,” Trump says. “But I think the laws are very unfair right now. And education is being very unfair, and it’s being stifled. But I don’t think it’s going to be a big problem at all. But if you look right now, there’s absolutely a bias against white [people] and that’s a problem.”
Polling suggests that many Republican voters agree with Trump, as FiveThirtyEight's Alex Samuels and Neil Lewis Jr. noted in 2022:
According to a 2021 survey by the Pew Research Center ... only 17 percent of Republican and Republican-leaning Americans said there is “a lot” of discrimination against Black people in today’s society. That number rose to 26 percent when Republicans were asked whether they believed white people faced “a lot” of discrimination....

PRRI [the Public Religion Research Institute] has asked ... to what extent respondents agree that discrimination against white Americans is now as significant of an issue as discrimination against Black Americans and other minorities — almost yearly between 2011 and 2020.... the share of Republicans who “completely agreed” or “mostly agreed” with the statement was mostly higher during Trump’s time in office than during Obama’s.

Last year, Philip Bump of The Washington Post cited the results of more recent polls:
In July [2023], Yahoo News commissioned polling from YouGov looking at the extent to which different racial groups were seen as targets of racism....

White Americans ... were more likely to say that racism was at least a small problem for them. But among Republicans? A third said that racism against White people was a big problem and 7 in 10 said it was at least a small problem — a higher level than Republicans felt was the case for any of the other racial groups included in the poll....

Last November, YouGov asked similar questions on behalf of the Economist.... Republicans ... were more likely to say that Whites faced at least a fair amount of discrimination than they were to say the same of Black Americans.
Republicans see Kamala Harris as a non-white person who's had all kinds of advantages because of the color of her skin, and has capitalized on all this privilege to become a successful lawyer and politician, even though she doesn't deserve all this good fortune. (Notice how many Republicans call her a "DEI hire" who'd be a "DEI president.")

Having been elevated to a status she doesn't deserve, with a usual style of speaking that suggests (as it did to Trump) that she isn't even Black, she has the nerve to sometimes slip into a style of speaking associated with Black people? Is she asking for more affirmative action?

That's what Republican voters are thinking. They think it's phony, something she does to persuade us that she should be given even more DEI privileges.

I assume that the "twang," as Spiers calls it, is one style of speaking she's very familiar with, and it feels like the right style to use in certain situations, the way my bilingual grandmother would sometimes finish English-language sentences with a phrase or two in Italian, something I mostly heard her do while she was talking on the phone to friends her age, who were probably doing the same thing. My grandmother was born in America to immigrant parents and spoke unaccented English to me, but food words were always said the Italian way. I have to remind myself to pronounce "ricotta" the way other Americans do because even my mother, two generations removed from Italy, learned to pronounce it like an Italian ("ree-goth-a").

But Harris's verbal code-switching will continue to infuriate Republicans, who think she's getting away with something. Look how crazy it makes Donald Trump's most trusted advisors:


This is just a variation on "Why can Black rappers say the N word and I can't?" Elizabeth Spiers shouldn't overthink it.
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Tuesday, September 17, 2024

WHY NO ONE'S AIMING A GUN AT KAMALA HARRIS, SO FAR

Hey, remember the time in 2017 when Donald Trump -- who was then president of the United States -- tweeted a viral video that showed him beating the crap out of CNN?


And remember the time, two years later, when a video that showed Trump massacring his enemies was part of the entertainment at a pro-Trump gathering at one of his properties?
A video depicting a macabre scene of a fake President Trump shooting, stabbing and brutally assaulting members of the news media and his political opponents was shown at a conference for his supporters at his Miami resort last week....

The most violent clip shows Mr. Trump’s head superimposed on the body of a man opening fire inside the “Church of Fake News” on parishioners who have the faces of his critics or the logos of media organizations superimposed on their bodies. It appears to be an edited scene of a church massacre from the 2014 dark comedy film “Kingsman: The Secret Service.”




I just wanted to remind you of those moments as context for this news story:
Former president Donald Trump on Monday blamed the “rhetoric” of President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris for the apparent assassination attempt he faced Sunday.

The suspected gunman “believed the rhetoric of Biden and Harris, and he acted on it,” Trump said in a Fox News interview published Monday morning. “Their rhetoric is causing me to be shot at, when I am the one who is going to save the country, and they are the ones that are destroying the country — both from the inside and out.”
And also as context for this new Trump ad:


Also, I want to respond to Republicans who are claiming the moral high ground right now because no one has attempted to assassinate Kamala Harris. That's true -- but it's not because Harris's critics are more virtuous or restrained.

Trump supporters are holding their fire because they expect Trump to exact the vengeance they seek. Notice how they depict him: as the Terminator, as Rambo, as Rocky, as a buff superhero, and, lately, as the "Fight! Fight! Fight!" guy. Notice the rhetoric that makes them happy -- for instance, this message posted by Trump on Truth Social last week:
“The 2024 Election, where Votes have just started being cast, will be under the closest professional scrutiny and, WHEN I WIN, those people that CHEATED will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the Law, which will include long term prison sentences so that this Depravity of Justice does not happen again," he wrote.

He continued, “Please beware that this legal exposure extends to Lawyers, Political Operatives, Donors, Illegal Voters, & Corrupt Election Officials. Those involved in unscrupulous behavior will be sought out, caught, and prosecuted at levels, unfortunately, never seen before in our Country.”
Trump's fans are waiting for him to smite their enemies. They want him to weaponize the law, as anticipated in this Truth Social post that was "re-truthed" by Trump:


They admire the January 6 insurrectionists, but they're not calling for another January 6, for now. They didn't turn out to protest in large numbers at any of Trump's arraignments or trials. They think he has superpowers, especially after he survived the flesh wound in the Pennsylvania shooting, and they're counting on him to use those superpowers to smite his enemies. And I mean "smite": Notice how often they accuse the people they hate of treason, and how often they point out that the punishment for treason is death.

The time to worry about MAGA violence against prominent Democrats is after the election, if Harris wins. It might not happen right away -- they'll expect a Harris victory to be overturned right up until Inauguration Day. But after that -- assuming Republicans fail to steal the election -- they'll be seriously angry. That's when things could get ugly.

Even before the election, Republicans will try to harm (or at least terrify) less powerful enemies -- swing-state election officials, drag queens, civic institutions in Springfield, Ohio. They like to punch down. But they expect Trump to take care of the prominent people they hate.
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Monday, September 16, 2024

TRUMP COULD BE A SYMPATHETIC FIGURE NOW, BUT HE CAN'T HELP SABOTAGING HIMSELF

Yesterday there was a second attempt on Donald Trump's life. The would-be shooter, Ryan Routh, registered as an unaffiliated voter in North Carolina in 2012 and voted in the state's Democratic primary that year, but he also tweeted his support for Trump in 2016. He turned against Trump during his presidency and gave money to Democratic presidential candidates in 2019 and 2020, among them Tulsi Gabbard from his adopted state, Hawaii, but he turned against Gabbard as well, as you can see from this collection of his now-deleted tweets. In recent years, as those tweets make clear, Routh became obsessed with defending Ukraine, and to a lesser extent Taiwan. He had crackpot notions about using Afghan soldiers as a foreign legion in both countries. According to the collected tweets, he wanted Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramasawamy to unite as a ticket in opposition to Trump this year. But he also spent a great deal of time trying to persuade pop stars -- Bruno Mars, Sting, U2, Elton John, Five for Fighting, the Dave Matthews Band -- to record a pro-Ukraine anthem, and he even offered his own lyrics for a song to be called "We Are One."

Also, Routh was arrested in 2002 after a run-in with law enforcement in North Carolina; among other things, he was charged with possession of a weapon of mass destruction, namely a fully automatic machine gun. According to Wired, the charging officer in the case, Tracy Fulk,
says Routh was well known for getting into armed confrontations with police. “I wasn’t the only one who had a standoff with him,” she says. “We always knew he had weapons.” Guilford County court records show Routh was charged dozens of times, often for driving-related offenses, going back to the early 1980s. Asked why he wasn’t in jail, Fulk says, “All we can do is arrest them and then obviously it goes into the court system and they decide all of that. It’s frustrating at times.”
But this is America, so of course he could get his hands on another gun.

*****

When I think about assassination attempts on Republicans, I think about this photo:


That's Ronald Reagan in the hospital after being shot, wearing pajamas and a bathrobe. Five months earlier, Reagan had won an election in which his opponents had described him as a bloodthirsty anti-Communist madman who'd get us into World War III. His rhetoric made that a reasonable fear. But here he was, humbled and vulnerable-looking. Reagan's public image was very carefully managed, so we know that this photo op happened because Reagan's aides wanted him to be seen this way. And it worked: In the weeks following the assassination attempt, Reagan's approval rating rose to 68%.

Donald Trump and his advisers don't understand the lesson to be learned from this.

When the shooting in Pennsylvania took place a couple of months ago, within seconds Trump tried to stage-manage the public response. He rose from the ground with his fist in the air and repeatedly chanted the word "Fight!" That had a strong appeal to the kinds of voters who were already inclined to vote for him. However, he probably needs at least some voters who would like to see him show vulnerability, the way Reagan did. But Trump's father and his mentor, Roy Cohn, taught him never to look vulnerable, so he squandered his first opportunity to capitalize on an assassination attempt. He showed vulnerability in the first part of his acceptance speech at the Republican convention, but then he devoted the majority of the speech to airing the same old grievances he always airs.

When pundits said the assassination attempt probably guaranteed him a landslide win in November, they assumed that the shooting would help him appeal to voters' common humanity. But Trump blew it. He just wanted to look like a tough guy.

And he's about to blow it again. He won't pause to do a soft-focus interview in which he humanizes himself. He's pivoting right back to this:
Former President Donald Trump plans to visit Springfield, Ohio, "soon," a source familiar with the planning said.
He and his running mate spread gasoline by claiming falsely that Haitian immigrants are eating pets in Springfield, and now Trump is headed there to light a match.

Trump can't bear to look like anything other than an aggressor, even at a moment when he'd benefit politically from a different look. That's one big reason why he's losing.
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Sunday, September 15, 2024

J.D. VANCE AND CHRIS RUFO'S PET-EATING "EVIDENCE": I CALL BULLSHIT

A few days ago, one of the worst people in America, Christopher Rufo, offered a "bounty" for evidence that Haitians are eating pets in Springfield, Ohio.


(Original tweets here, here, and here.)

Rufo now claims to have his hard evidence -- except that his claim doesn't involve Haitians, doesn't involve an incident in Springfield ... and looks a lot like bullshit.


None of which prevented J.D. Vance from retweeting the claim and adding:
Kamala Harris and her media apparatchiks should be ashamed of themselves.

Another "debunked" story that turned out to have merit.
Now, let's examine the "evidence" as described on Rufo's Substack:
Our investigation begins in a run-down neighborhood of Dayton, Ohio, the closest major city to Springfield, about a half-hour’s drive away. We identified a social media post, dated August 25, 2023, with a short video depicting what appear to be two skinned cats on top of a blue barbeque. “Yoooo the Africans wildn on Parkwood,” reads the text, referring to Parkwood Drive. The video then pans down to two live cats walking across the grass in front of a run-down fence, with a voice on the video warning: “There go a cat right there. His ass better get missin’, man. Look like his homies on the grill!” ...

We spoke with the author of the video, who asked to remain anonymous but confirmed its time, location, and authenticity. He told us that he was picking up his son last summer, when he noticed the unusual situation. “It was some Africans that stay right next door to my kid’s mother,” he said. “This African dude next door had the damn cat on the grill.”

We then identified the home by matching it to the visuals in the video and cross-referencing them with the eyewitness. When we knocked on the door of the first unit, a family answered, telling us they were from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and that all of the surrounding units were occupied by other African migrants.

One of the residents told us that her former neighbors, also from Africa, had lived in the adjacent unit until last month. They had a blue grill and the father would find meat in the neighborhood. “Her dad was going to find meat,” she said. “Her dad was going, holding a knife.” The current residents also showed us a blue grill of the same make and model as in the video, which the former neighbors had abandoned after they moved out. There were at least ten cats wandering around the complex and another resident complained that they were breeding on the property.

According to the original witness, whose son was friendly with the neighbors, there was no doubt about what happened last summer. “They was barbecuing the damn cat!” he said. His son’s mother had previously witnessed the family butchering a mammal on the street, but the cats on the barbeque put him in such a state of shock, he felt the need to film it.
A reminder: The Democratic Republic of the Congo is not Haiti. It's not even on the same continent as Haiti. But hey, Those People all look alike, right?

So this allegedly took place in the wrong city, with migrants from the wrong continent. The sources are two anonymous witnesses, and the documentary "evidence" is a social media video that isn't linked to a contemporaneous post. Seems like a solid story so far!

Now, have you noticed anything unusual about the cooking technique demonstrated in the video? Try to suppress your revulsion at the possibility that cats are being cooked. Think about how we cook other animals on a grill. (My apologies -- I'm going to talk about the idea of cat grilling for the next several paragraphs.)

If you were cooking a chicken on a grill, or maybe a game animal like a rabbit, would you cook it with the legs up in the air?

You wouldn't. You'd separate the pieces, or maybe spatchcock the animal, flattening it so the legs would get grilled as well as the body.

That's what you'd do to cats if you were actually grilling them. But if you were making a phony video about cat grilling, this is how you'd depict it. You'd want it to look as if you just happened upon the barbaric practice taking place in someone else's yard and had to film it from some distance. How would you get the animals on the grill to look like cats if all the pieces were flat on the grill? It would be impossible. So they're depicted this way, with legs in the air, a way no one would ever actually cook them.

And even if you think the griller didn't think the legs were worth grilling, maybe because they don't have enough meat, answer me this: How would you flip these cats over to grill the other side?

So this video is fake. Maybe it was legitimately posted on social media last year or maybe it was a fake recently created, but it was created to slander immigrants either last year or a couple of days ago. That won't prevent J.D. Vance from citing it as genuine, probably all the way to November.
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Saturday, September 14, 2024

THE VOTERS WHO ARE KEEPING TRUMP IN THE RACE THINK HE'S AN IDIOT

On Tuesday night, Kamala Harris exposed Donald Trump for what he is: a vain, insecure, ignorant, misinformed extremist with anger management issues. Okay, that's not quite accurate -- to some extent, Trump did this to himself. The slander directed at Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio ("They're eating the dogs") was something Trump said without prompting. He made himself look like an idiot.

And yet his poll numbers aren't collapsing. Let's look at national polls taken since the debate: A Data for Progress survey now has Harris up by 4, but that's only one point better than her lead in the group's previous pre-debate poll. A survey from Redfield & Wilton Strategies has Harris leading by 2, unchanged from her lead in a poll conducted by the firm in late August. Reuters/Ipsos has Harris leading by 5 among registered voters -- which is good, but not much better than her 4-point lead in a late-August survey. Morning Consult gives Harris a 5-point lead, but it was 4 before the debate.

All of these are encouraging numbers, but Trump's support hasn't collapsed. Why is that?

The easy answer is that Trump's superfans will never abandon him. That's true, but he hasn't remained competitive in this election just because of the superfans. There aren't enough of them. He's remained competitive because people who don't worship the ground he walks on continue to support him. Paradoxically, they're as unlikely to reject him after that debate as the MAGA loyalists.

Here's the problem: Trump supporters who aren't superfans already seem to recognize that he's an obnoxious, angry blowhard. They've priced that in to their decision this year. Their view is that if he's elected president, he'll say a lot of awful things, and he'll post terrible things on social media, but he'll also make inflation go away magically. So it doesn't matter to them that he looked like an idiot on Tuesday night. They already thought he was an idiot -- but they think he's an idiot who can make prices lower using that business magic they saw him display on The Apprentice.

Take a look at the poll CNN conducted immediately after the debate. Debate watchers thought Harris did a better job by a 63%-37% margin, and had a 45% favorable view of Harris after the debate (44% unfavorable), while Trump's favorable/unfavorable numbers were 39%/51%. Yet 55% trust Trump more than Harris on the economy, "a margin that’s slightly wider than his pre-debate edge," according to CNN (35% trust Harris more).

Or look at the Data for Progress poll. In that survey, 56% of respondents said Harris performed better in the debate (37% chose Trump). When asked about Trump's pet-eating allegations, 80% of respondents said the remarks were either "very weird" (64%) or "somewhat weird" (16%). Even 69% of Republicans thought they were weird.

Yet Trump trails Harris in the poll by only 4 points, 50%-46%. Voters trust Trump more on inflation (though it's only 49%-44% in this survey). That plus a lead on immigration (50%-44%) seems to counter all this:
Voters believe Harris is more composed (+19), honest (+13), and intelligent (+8) than Trump. They also believe that Harris is the “candidate of the future” (+11), fights more for the working class (+10), and is more moderate (+17) than Trump. Conversely, voters believe Trump is weirder (+16) and more extreme (+24) than Harris.
Here's a bonus fact that I hope the Harris campaign uses to needle Trump: 49% of voters think the word "insecure" applies to Trump, while only 39% think it applies to Harris. (I don't understand how Harris's number could be that high.)

So there are clearly voters who recognize Trump's character flaws and back him anyway.

I'm not pointing this out because I'm feeling the gloom and doom I was feeling when Joe Biden was still in the race. I think Harris is in pretty good shape, and is a slight favorite to win. I'm just trying to understand why the race is still close.

Maybe Trump will double down on rage, resentment, and Laura Loomer-style conspiratorialism, and his numbers will continue to erode. Or it might be that Harris has to challenge him more forcefully on the economy, because the gettable voters she needs are willing to vote for a guy who says immigrants eat pets if they think he can lower the price of eggs.
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Friday, September 13, 2024

MARK PENN GOES MASK OFF AS A GOP DISINFORMATIONIST, BUT HE'LL STILL GET TO SCOLD DEMOCRATS IN THE NEW YORK TIMES

Kamala Harris wiped the floor with Donald Trump in Tuesday night's debate, so the GOP and its propaganda wing are now insisting that there was A Conspiracy So Vast to throw the debate to Harris. The Murdoch media has signed on to this effort by giving Mark Penn and his fellow Fox News Democrat Andrew Stein a spot on the Wall Street Journal editorial page, where they argue that ABC cheated Trump:
[Harris] enlisted every charge ever leveled against Mr. Trump, regardless of the truth. That included, to name a few, the false claims that he favors a national abortion ban and opposes in vitro fertilization, that he called neo-Nazis in Charlottesville, Va., “very fine people,” and that he threatened a “bloodbath” if he loses the election.

Each is untrue: Mr. Trump has made clear he opposes a national abortion ban. He favors IVF and has even said the government should pay for it. He condemned the Charlottesville neo-Nazis. And he predicted a financial “bloodbath” for the auto industry if he loses and the Biden-Harris electric-vehicle mandates progress.

Had the moderators turned to Ms. Harris after these lies and said, “That has been debunked,” we might be having a totally different conversation about the debate, given how she tends to react when challenged.
The moderators fact-checked Trump on outrageous assertions that are unambiguously false: No state allows a born-alive infant to be murdered. Authorities in Springfield, Ohio, have said that no one is eating pets in their community. By contrast, the supposed debunking of the charge that Trump said there were "very fine people on both sides" in Charlottesville has itself been debunked. The "bloodbath" remark was ambiguous -- Trump was talking about the economy, but then he said, "Now, if I don’t get elected, it’s going to be a bloodbath, for the whole — that’s going to be the least of it. It’s going to be a bloodbath for the country. That’ll be the least of it," which at least suggests that he anticipates a society-wide apocalypse if he loses the election. And when there's a conflict between Trump's current positions and past statements -- or statements found in the Project 2025 manifesto, which is largely written by Trump advisers -- what are the undisputed facts about Trump's positions?

Beyond that, Penn and Stein's swipe at Harris -- "given how she tends to react when challenged" -- is absurd. How does she react when challenged? Based on the events of Tuesday night, when she was challenged relentlessly by Trump, she reacts with poise, precision, eloquence, and a command of the facts. I'm sure she would have handled an ABC fact-check or two deftly and effectively. (I guess it would be unfair to expect Trump to maintain poise when being questioned on accuracy.)

What's more, Penn and Stein are gaslighting us. Harris didn't out-debate Trump because he was fact-checked. She out-debated him because she showed him for what he is, a vain, angry man with extreme ideas. There wasn't a fact check involved when Trump had a meltdown over Harris's (accurate) assertion that attendees get bored at his rallies and leave early. And Trump's widely mocked slander of Haitian immigrants in Ohio -- "They're eating the dogs" -- occurred before ABC's fact check.

Penn went further on the podcast of John Solomon, a formerly respectable journalist now best known for peddling Russia-friendly falsehoods about the Biden family and Ukraine in collaboration with Rudy Giuliani. Here's what Penn said to Solomon about how ABC handled the debate:
"I actually think they should do a full internal investigation, hire an outside law firm. I don't know how much of this was planned in advance," Penn told the "John Solomon Reports" podcast.

"I don't know what they told the Harris campaign. I think the day after, suspicion here is really quite high, and I think a review of all their internal texts and emails really should be done by an independent party to find out to what extent they were planning on, in effect, you know, fact-checking just one candidate and in effect, rigging the outcome of this debate. I think the situation demands nothing less than that," he added.
(Emphasis added.)

In the Journal op-ed, Penn merely accuses ABC of pro-Harris bias. Here, in a just-asking-questions way, Penn is suggesting that ABC might have colluded with the Harris campaign to rig the debate, even though Harris's triumph didn't depend in any way on ABC's fact checks.

There was no such collusion and Penn knows it, but he's being a good disinformationist in an attempt to bring down the party he hates, a party that exiled him years ago, a party whose nominee he and his wife wanted to defeat with their No Labels project this year.

And yet I'm certain that we'll see Mark Penn on the op-ed page of The New York Times next month, or two years from now, or four years from now, and he'll be scolding Democrats as he always does for failing to move far enough right for his tastes. His bio will still include some version of "Mark Penn was a pollster and an adviser to President Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton from 1995 to 2008," and no acknowledgment of his time advising Donald Trump on impeachment or his role in the attempt to ratfuck the 2024 presidential election to prevent a Democratic victory. Penn is anti-Democratic hack, but that fact will never be acknowledged at the Times.
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Thursday, September 12, 2024

TRUMP IS NOT REALLY THE LEADER OF HIS OWN DISINFORMATION CULT

In Tuesday's night's debate, after Kamala Harris said that Donald Trump had promised to "weaponize the Department of Justice against his political enemies," Trump replied,
This is the one that weaponized. Not me. She weaponized. I probably took a bullet to the head because of the things that they say about me.
But as Isaac Arnsdorf notes today in The Washington Post, Trump wasn't an early adopter of the false and slanderous argument that his shooting was the fault of his politcal enemies.
On the first night after Donald Trump was injured in an assassination attempt in Butler, Pa., some supporters and allies, including campaign staff, immediately began blaming President Joe Biden and Democrats before any information was available about the shooter or his possible motive. Trump himself didn’t go there. In his first public statements after the July 13 shooting, Trump thanked law enforcement, offered condolences to the rallygoers killed and wounded, and called for unity.
By early August, Trump was blaming Democrats:
Trump himself made that claim during his speech in Atlanta on [August 3]: “Remember the words they use, ‘they are a threat to democracy,’” he said. “They’ve been saying that about me for seven years. I think I got shot because of that, OK.”
But J.D. Vance -- who hadn't yet been officially named Trump's running mate -- was blaming Democrats within hours of the shooting:


This message spread first among extremely online right-wing influencers, and only then did Trump pick up on it. The same appears to be true of the cat-eating blood libel against Haitians in Springfield, Ohio, as Public Notice's Liz Dye notes:
According to the Springfield News-Sun, the racist meme started with a post to a Facebook group for residents of the Ohio town. The poster claimed that a neighbor’s daughter’s friend had discovered her cat butchered near a home lived in by Haitians, and further that the poster had “been told” that pet dogs as well as wild geese and ducks had been killed as well....

But local police never received any reports of pets being killed....

Charlie Kirk, Kremlin-funded Benny Johnson, and even Elon Musk all tweeted about it on Monday. But things really got out of hand when Trump’s vice presidential candidate JD Vance, the junior senator from Ohio, joined the fray.

“Months ago, I raised the issue of Haitian illegal immigrants draining social services and generally causing chaos all over Springfield, Ohio,” he tweeted on Monday, shamelessly trying to blame Vice President Harris for the nonexistent problem. “Reports now show that people have had their pets abducted and eaten by people who shouldn't be in this country. Where is our border czar?”

All day Monday and Tuesday, as Trump “prepped” for the debate, the weirdos who populate his social media feed vomited out meme after meme of Trump protecting cats and ducks — most of them clearly generated using Elon Musk’s AI, known as Grok.
Only then did Trump pick up on the story.

Most people who aren't Trump supporters see the Republican Party as a cult of Trump. They cite evidence such as this recent poll, which tells us that Democrats trust a wide range of news sources for accurate election information, but Republicans seem to trust only Trump:


But Trump isn't the textbook cult leader who is the sole source of information for his followers. As we see from the examples above, Trump isn't even the sole source of his own pronouncements. By the time he makes some of his pronouncements, his followers have already been primed to believe them by online shitposters, podcasters, and right-wing cable channels such as Fox News and Newsmax.

The poll question cited above is poorly constructed. It doesn't break out Fox News or Elon Musk's X as separate choices. It doesn't mention podcasts -- if there'd been a "Podcasters such as Charlie Kirk, Ben Shapiro, and Candace Owens" option, I'm sure it would have scored very high among Republicans. "Donald Trump and his campaign" is Republicans' #1 choice because it's the only choice that, in the view of Republicans, isn't fatally poisoned by liberalism.

Republicans don't trust Trump on everything. Ask them how they feel about the vaccines whose development he used to tout as one of his great accomplishments until he began to be booed at rallies for boasting about them. Remember how supporters forced him to flip-flop on Florida's upcoming abortion referendum. That's now how personality cults work.

A year ago, I wrote this about the idea that the GOP is a Trump cult:
I'm reminded of our discovery, sometime during the post-9/11 era, that terrorism was being inspired not directly by charismatic leaders of Al-Qaeda or ISIS, but more immediately by lesser-known online influencers. The behavior of the followers was cult-like, but it seemed like cultural worship of certain ideas (and violent tactics) rather than worship of Osama bin Laden or Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. That, in a somewhat less violent form, is what we've had on the American right for years, even if it looks like a personality cult now.
The GOP cult is a disinformation cult -- followers want to believe any lie that reinforces their belief that the people they hate are evil -- but the lies come from multiple sources. In that post a year ago, I provided a partial list: "Steve Bannon and Christopher Rufo and Jack Posobiec and Marjorie Taylor Greene and Candace Owens and Elon Musk and Andrew Tate and Moms for Liberty and dozens of other people who aren't Trump." Let's add Elon Musk and J.D. Vance and Benny Johnson and Donald Trump Jr. and Chaya Raichik and Catturd and whoever runs End Wokeness, a superspreader of the cat story. Who's radicalizing your Trumpist neighbors? The people I've named are as much at fault as Donald Trump -- if not more so. And they'll be doing this long after Trump is gone, unless the GOP has suffered a series of defeats so bruising that it cuts the disinformationists loose.
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Wednesday, September 11, 2024

HOW THE RIGHT-WING MEDIASPHERE -- AND TRUMP'S FRAGILE EGO -- SET HIM UP FOR FAILURE LAST NIGHT

Nearly everyone who watched the debate last night concedes that Kamala Harris won, and won big, including Republicans.


Some of the commentators who concede that Harris won imply that she manipulated Trump into debating badly. This is from a Wall Street Journal editorial:
She won the debate because she came in with a strategy to taunt and goad Mr. Trump into diving down rabbit holes of personal grievance and vanity that left her policies and history largely untouched. He always takes the bait, and Ms. Harris set the trap so he spent much of the debate talking about the past, or about Joe Biden, or about immigrants eating pets, but not how he’d improve the lives of Americans in the next four years.
This suggests that there's another Trump in there somewhere who is wise and statesmanlike. I don't think so. I agree with Dan Froomkin:


There is no competent Trump. There is no statesmanlike Trump. The person we saw last night is the person who will be president if Trump wins, a person who spends his life in "rabbit holes of personal grievance and vanity."

Trump has always been cultural conservative -- a racist, a fan of "law and order," an admirer of strongmen and authoritarians -- but years of binge-watching Fox News have made his opinions and prejudices worse. Now he has a set of opinions -- on renewable energy vs. fossil fuels, on immigration, and so on -- that are made up of talking points from the right-wing informationsphere. When he says that windmill noise causes cancer, he's repeating an idea spread by pseudo-scientists funded by the fossil fuel industry.

But that's how his mind works -- his ego is so fragile that he can't bear to be wrong, so he clings desperately to any assertion that reinforces his notion that he's right. Windmills kill birds! Solar energy is useless when it's cloudy! Of course, the right-wing infosphere is a machine designed to reassure all of its consumers that their prejudices and resentments are right.

But a serious problem for Trump is that the right-wing infosphere is becoming even more divorced from reality than it was in the recent past. I'll give you an example, but first, some background.

I've been watching the spread of right-wing messaging for a couple of decades now. I've noticed that the right's messages aren't all spread in the same way or in the same forums. Some messages are really far-fetched and would be perceived as preposterous if they spread to the mainstream: school shootings are faked, the government controls the weather from a facility in Alaska, that sort of thing. Fox News and the Wall Street Journal editorial page have avoided endorsing these ideas. They're meant to bind voters to the GOP, but only the most gullible ones.

But in recent years, as Fox News has begun losing its primacy on the right while the Internet has increasingly been the main source for what rank-and-file right-wingers believe, fringe ideas have become more mainstream: Barack Obama birtherism, the allegedly stolen election in 2020, QAnon's notion of a vast elitist pedophile ring that somehow excludes all Republicans.

And now we have the cats.

When even J.D. Vance was spreading scurrilous stories about Haitian immigrants eating cats in Springfield, Ohio, I was surprised -- not because right-wingers are spreading hateful and dangerous blood libels about immigrants (that happens all the time), but because Republicans weren't confining the spread of this preposterous and easily disproved story to the fringier parts of their infosphere. They were going mainstream with this.

But of course they were. In 2024, it's hard to restrict a story like this to the fringe. Naturally, Elon Musk promoted it, as did many online influencers and Trumpist members of Congress.

Trump hates immigrants, so of course he seized on this story and talked about in the debate. Trump's confirmation bias is tied to his delicate ego, which always needs to say, See? I was right. A few years ago, he might not have even noticed this story. But the tiers in the right-wing mediasphere have collapsed, so the confirming messages Trump is exposed to are stupider. And he believes them.

That wasn't the only example of Trump falling for conspiracy theories that might not have reached him a few years ago. Remember this from last night?
People don't go to her rallies. There's no reason to go. And the people that do go, she's busing them in and paying them to be there. And then showing them in a different light. So, she can't talk about that.
Harris had needled Trump on the boredom some of his fans feel at his rallies, and he rose to the bait -- but he added the conspiracy theory that her crowds are Astroturfed. What's more, when he said, "And then showing them in a different light," he might have been alluding (in a garbled way) to rumors that the crowds in Harris clips were generated by AI. He has a desperate need to be the most popular politician, so he'll believe anything that confirms that belief.

Trump simply can't take in information that challenges his beliefs. His ego can't handle it. The right-wing infosphere flatters Trump the way dictators flatter Trump: by telling him what he wants to hear. That's the person Kamala Harris showed us last night, and that's why we can't allow him to win the presidency again.
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Tuesday, September 10, 2024

THAT TIMES STORY ABOUT TRUMP'S INCOHERENCE: I QUESTION THE TIMING

After a great deal of criticism, including critiques from elsewhere in the elite mainstream media (The Atlantic, The New Republic), we finally have a story in The New York Times about Donald Trump's age and rhetorical semi-coherence. It was written by a top Times journalist, Peter Baker, and it's a reasonably good piece, starting with the headline ("As Debate Looms, Trump Is Now the One Facing Questions About Age and Capacity"). It ticks through most of the recent Trump babelogues that have made commentators question his mental health: the discussion of child care ("Mr. Trump wandered through a thicket of unfinished sentences, non sequitur clauses and confusing logic that tied the answer to tariffs on imports," Baker writes), the electrocution/shark rant, the scurrilous claim that schools are forcing gender surgery on students ("Sometimes he makes false claims that are so far-fetched, they make him appear detached from reality"), and others. We're reminded of previous moments when Trump lost his grip on reality:
He has mixed up Nikki Haley and Nancy Pelosi, declared more than once that he beat Barack Obama instead of Hillary Clinton and while arguing that he is mentally fit gave the wrong name for his former doctor.
Many observers are hoping that this is just the beginning -- that the Times and the rest of the press will focus on Trump's age and mental capacity as obsessively as they focused on Joe Biden's.

I'm skeptical. I think the point of this article was to quiet critics, after which the Times will be able to tell those critics, "But we covered that already."

I also think this appears at the best possible moment for Trump -- right before the debate, when he benefits from lowered expectations. The Times could have published a story like this at any time over the past several months. Publishing it now gives Trump a low bar to clear tonight. Since he's probably well rehearsed and since the debate format discourages him from rambling and meandering, he probably will clear that bar. Headline tomorrow: Trump wins debate, or at least Trump stands firm.

I don't want to accuse the Times of choosing this moment to run a story about Trump's babbling for precisely this reason, but I do believe the paper has a vendetta against both Kamala Harris and Joe Biden for refusing to submit to a Times interview. So maybe that really is why the Times is addressing this issue now, for the first and, I suspect, last time.
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Monday, September 09, 2024

BOTH SIDES DON'T DO IT, BUT THE MEDIA NEVER NOTICES

The Washington Post has just published a story by Tim Craig about Butler County, Pennsylvania, where a gunman tried to assassinate Donald Trump a couple of months ago. Here's the headline:
The angry, divisive fallout of the Trump shooting in Butler County

The assassination attempt has pitted Democrats and Republicans against each other in a way that one historian calls ‘outright frightening.'
Did you catch that? The shooting "has pitted Democrats and Republicans against each other." In the story, Craig writes that it's "the moment that split this Pennsylvania community in two ... as both sides dig in and try to ensure that their candidate wins enough votes here to capture a key battleground state."

All this suggests that the ugliness in Butler County is evenly distributed. It isn't.

Here's every ugly incident Craig recounts:
Heidi Marie Priest, a Democrat and local real estate agent ... organized the “Butler County Women for Harris” Facebook group....

The group quickly became a sort of therapy for local Harris supporters who said they had been too fearful to express their political beliefs. On a recent afternoon, about 80 people gathered at a small park, sat in a circle and shared why they are supporting Harris....

They had tried not to draw attention to themselves, but a heckler still spotted the group and yelled, “Trump 2024!” ...

Priest ... said she has received unnerving messages at her Realtor’s office since launching the Facebook group.

“How are you this blind?” one of the callers said in a voicemail. “You are as confused as Joe Biden. You are in the wrong state. You think you are home? Nah, you are a long way from home.”

Another member of the women’s group said she believes someone threw a brick at her car after she placed a Harris bumper sticker on it.

“I put it on Monday, and on Tuesday I walked out to my car and there is a brick on my windshield,” said Rhonda, 65, who asked to be referred only by her first name, out of fear for her safety....

When a Washington Post reporter pulled into the driveway of a home with a “Biden-Harris” sign on the lawn, a passing motorist screamed an expletive aimed at the president....

Sue Legacy, the homeowner with the Biden sign, said she is used to hearing motorists hurl expletives.

“The last election was the same thing,” Legacy, 61, said. “Tensions are volatile.”

Within two hours of the shooting, John Placek began displaying a digital billboard blaming Democrats for the assassination attempt. The sign shows Trump gripping an American flag along with a target over his face. Another billboard asks, “WILL THEY TRY TO ASSASSINATE PRESIDENT TRUMP AGAIN?” A third shows Harris with red horns and states “DEMOCRATS KILL BABIES AND DREAMS.” ...

Some Butler residents are getting similar messages in their mailboxes.

State Rep. Aaron Bernstine (R) sent a mailer to his constituents accusing the media and Biden administration of “all but pulling the trigger” on July 13....

Before Trump’s rally, [Democratic county commissioner Kevin] Boozel had been pressing Republican commissioner Leslie Osche and Butler’s sheriff to keep detailed records of how much the county was spending on Trump’s visit. Osche, who attended Trump’s rally, believed a formal contract was not needed, contending that security considerations should not be dictated by cost concerns.

According to phone messages released by Boozel, he texted Osche on the night of the shooting to check in on her and tell her the White House was offering assistance.

“How freakin dare you. We were right behind the President. You who wanted a contract. Our people did well. You will burn in hell. We don’t need their help. I will fully expose you. I hope you can’t sleep,” Osche wrote.

“So much for your professionalism,” Boozel replied.

“You don’t deserve professionalism,” Osche wrote back.
Is it accurate to say, "The assassination attempt has pitted Democrats and Republicans against each other"? It seems more accurate to say that Republicans are pitted against Democrats in Butler County.

The press never seems to see this. Craig has done a good job of reporting the story -- but he stuffs it into the same both-sides-do-it box that's used for every other story about politcal "polarization."

The truth is always the same: partisans on one side, partisans who are also angry intimidators on the other side. But it's never reported that way.
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Sunday, September 08, 2024

IN ADDITION TO "SANEWASHING," CAN WE TALK ABOUT "REALITY-WASHING"?

Donald Trump ranted and raved at a news conference on Friday, and didn't take a single question from reporters. After the news conference was over, Jamelle Bouie of The New York Times read a portion of Trump's remarks in a TikTok video:

@jamellebouie

yes i’m wearing a kikkoman baseball cap

♬ original sound - b-boy bouiebaisse

Here's part of what Bouie read, from a transcript of Trump's remarks:
Let me talk about job numbers, because as you know, they just came out. And they’re a basic disaster.

They are really bad. You had numbers that are shocking. Native-born Americans, we lost 1.3 million jobs, while foreign-born Americans were able to take all of those jobs. So foreigners coming in illegally, largely illegally into our country, took the jobs of native-born Americans.

And I’ve been telling you that’s what’s going to happen, because we have millions and millions of people pouring into our country, many from prisons and jails and mental institutions and insane asylums, traffickers, human traffickers, women traffickers, sex traffickers, which, by the way, that’s the kind of thing that people should be looking at because it’s horrible. And it’s turning out that migrant crime is far worse than any crime that we’ve ever experienced. If you look at Aurora, Colorado, they’re taking over the place. They took over buildings, and this is just the beginning.

You haven’t seen anything yet. You haven’t seen anything. It’s allowed well over 20 million people, in my opinion. Other people say, well, it’s only 13.

No, no. It’s much more than 20. I think it’s much more than 20. Our country is being invaded because of incompetent people like Kamala that doesn’t want to do one interview.
On Threads, Bouie posted a link to his TikTok video, with this description:
i have been doing a thing on tiktok where i just read a straight transcript of what trump says just to emphasize how insane he sounds.
"Insane" is the word most Trump critics would use for this. It's an increasingly common complaint that the media is engaging in "sanewashing," as Parker Molloy put it in a New Republic piece a few days ago.

Maybe the media should be questioning Trump's mental fitness. But I see a different problem: not "sanewashing," but "reality-washing."

What Trump says here is not completely divorced from reality. I'm sure his numbers came from this Fox Business story:
The new August jobs report shows employment numbers of U.S.-born workers and foreign-born workers going on two very different trajectories.

Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, an arm of the Department of Labor, shows native-born Americans lost more than 1.3 million jobs over the last 12 months, while foreign-born workers gained more than 1.2 million jobs.
There's a reason for that: The U.S. population is full of Baby Boomers who are retiring. As The Washington Post reported in July,
The ranks of retirees are growing much faster today than the number of new workers, ushering in an unprecedented graying of America that will reshape our workforce and economy.
Immigrants are helping to fill that gap -- and the BLS numbers didn't say they're exclusively undocumented immigrants, as even the Fox Business story acknowledges:
The figures do not differentiate between foreign-born workers who entered the country with authorization, i.e. Green Card holders and those with working visas, and those who entered without prior authorization.
But in Trump's telling, we're not seeing a lot of older native-born workers retiring faster while fewer young native-born citizens enter the workforce. His version is that native-born Americans are being forced out of jobs and nearly all of the replacement employees are undocumented immigrants, many of whom are criminals or severely mentally ill. Your jobs are being taken by border-crossing criminal psychopaths.

This should be a big story: Trump is making claims that are so divorced from reality that they describe an apocalypse, not actual American life. These aren't normal political lies. They're not even "truthful hyperbole ... an innocent form of exaggeration," which is how Trump's ghostwriter described his habitual truth-shading in his first book, The Art of the Deal.

Here's another masssive lie about immigrants, from Trump's rally in Wisconsin yesterday:


In addition to Trump's claim that there will be widespread seizures of American homes by undocumented immigrants during a Harris presidency, he also says in this clip that the undocumented population will rise to a preposterous 100 million.

And Trump repeated another recent extreme lie yesterday:


I still say Trump isn't crazy or suffering significant dementia. He's just beginning to realize that he can tell any lie, no matter how divorced from reality it is, and no one will say that his lies are categorically different from ordinary political lies. To the media, there's no difference between Trump saying schools are forcibly performing gender reassignment surgery on children and Tim Walz saying that he and his wife conceived their children using in vitro fertilization when they really used intra-uterine insemination. A lie is a lie! Nothing to see here, folks!

Maybe the press has a sense of futility about fact-checking Trump -- it's never stopped him from insisting that the 2020 election was rigged, so why bother? And fact checking clearly can't kill other Republican Big Lies -- that Democrats support abortion after birth, or that entire cities were burned to the ground during the George Floyd protests in 2020. (Many Republicans other than Trump tell these lies and get away with them.)

If we continue to let Trump lie this brazenly without making the sheer magnitude of the lies a story, we run the risk that he'll become president and indict enemies or call out troops on disfavored groups based entirely on fictional scenarios. Once that happens, the press might finally tell us that he's the worst-ever purveyor of Big Lies, but it could be too late by then.
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Saturday, September 07, 2024

THE (UNIMAGINABLE) DEBATE RULE THAT COULD DEFEAT TRUMP: NO TIME LIMIT ON STATEMENTS

The headline of this Washington Post story pulls no punches:
Trump rants, resurfaces sexual assault allegations for 49 unfocused minutes
The story -- written by four Post reporters, three of them women -- is equally straightforward:
Donald Trump railed against women who have accused him of sexual assault. He baselessly blamed the Biden-Harris administration for his legal difficulties. He appeared to criticize the physical appearances of some of his accusers. “She would not have been the chosen one,” he said of one, later adding that he would “not want to be” involved with another accuser....

And those were only some of the ways he veered away from topics voters have said they care most about in what his campaign billed as a “press conference” Friday.... Trump took no questions from the news media....

In a roughly 49-minute appearance that sometimes verged into a stream-of-consciousness rant that was hard to follow, Trump also reminisced about his early career as a real estate mogul and reality television star. (“I was,” he said, “a celebrity for a long time.”) He lamented his two impeachments, calling them “impeachment hoax number one, impeachment hoax number two.” And he mentioned Monica Lewinsky, the former White House intern who had an affair with President Bill Clinton, at least three times....

For much of the summer in a tight presidential contest, Trump’s advisers have urged him to hew to a more disciplined message....

They have tried for weeks to pull him out of a self-pitying stage....
You get the picture. This was bad. I didn't think Trump was incoherent, but he was obsessive, bitter, and nasty. Try watching a little, if you can bear it:



I'm reading this alongside stories about the debate prep being done by Trump and Kamala Harris. Harris, according to Gabriel Debenedetti of New York magazine, isn't looking for a knockout punch in the debate:
The debate, say Democrats close to Harris, is simply not the venue for just pumping up her partisans or trying to fulfill a liberal fantasy of so aggressively confronting Trump that his own supporters have second thoughts about voting for him. Instead, Harris’s team believes it needs to be about finding moments to educate and convert the voters on the margins. And for a candidate whose rallies feature “A NEW WAY FORWARD” signage and repeated audience chants of “we’re not going back,” that primarily means trying to keep the focus on her own vision for the future and contrasting it with Trump’s.
Her campaign's research tells her that undecided voters are more likely to be swayed by positive messages about her than negative messages about Trump:
Just last week, the Democratic research group Blueprint tested messaging and found that pro-Harris forces would be smarter to rely on ads featuring a contrast and positive lines about Harris over negative ones on Trump — voters are twice as likely to be moved by the former than the latter, which are only useful on the margins. (The absolute worst-performing ads in Blueprint’s tests were purely anti-Trump ads, which were in some cases three times less effective at moving voters than ads focusing on the contrast in the candidates’ abortion-policy proposals.)
Hey, whatever works. But if I think about the debate in a realm of pure fantasy, I can easily imagine a Trump knockout that might influence the votes of undecided and swing voters. It could happen if there were a debate rule that would never be permitted in the real world -- no news outlet would agree to it, and Trump's advisers would reject it.

The rule: no time limit on the candidates' statements.

I understand that the swing voters who are supporting Trump without being MAGA superfans or Fox News cultists are people who've accepted that Trump is an angry blowhard, but believe he's a person who can make inflation go away and intimidate other world leaders, in part because he's an angry blowhard. They have naive ideas about Trump's anger, believing it's an outward manifestation of a toughness he developed as a New York businessman. They also have a naive understanding of his business career, most of it based on The Apprentice.

So when they see "mean tweets," as his fans call them, they shrug them off. But people who know Trump's temperament only from short social media posts and 25-second video clips may never have seen Trump at great length. It's exhausting -- and he looks exhausted. Get Trump revved up and he just seems sourer and sourer. He wears himself out with his own rage. He doesn't look like the doer Apprentice watchers imagine he is. He just looks like a frustrated, ineffectual old man.

In my fantasy debate, Harris gets the first opening statement and ends it with a crisp, subtle zinger. The zinger gets under Trump's skin and he fills the rest of the 90-minute timeslot -- all of it -- with a rambling babelogue full of paranoid theories, resentful digressions, and Fox News buzzwords. He wears the audience out and wears himself out. To swing voters, it doesn't look presidential at all.

I'm sorry it can't happen. But I think it's possible that, between now and November, Democrats, liberal commentators, and social media video clippers will succeed in focusing the rest of America on what this angry, weary old man is really like. The liberal effort to highlight Trump's rambling answer to a question on child care this week was a start. We need more of that.
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Friday, September 06, 2024

MY UNPOPULAR OPINION ABOUT TRUMP'S RHETORIC: IT'S NOT GIBBERISH, IT'S BULLSHIT

Yesterday, after his speech to the Economic Club of New York, Donald Trump responded to questions, including this one:
If you win in November, can you commit to prioritizing legislation to make child care affordable, and if so, what specific piece of legislation will you advance?
Here's his response:


A transcript of his long, meandering answer:
Well, I would do that, and we're sitting down, and I was, somebody, we had Senator Marco Rubio, and my daughter Ivanka was so, uh, impactful on that issue. It's a very important issue. But I think when you talk about the kind of numbers that I'm talking about, that, because, look, child care is child care is. Couldn't, you know, there's something, you have to have it – in this country you have to have it.

But when you talk about those numbers compared to the kind of numbers that I'm talking about by taxing foreign nations at levels that they're not used to — but they'll get used to it very quickly – and it's not gonna stop them from doing business with us, but they'll have a very substantial tax when they send product into our country. Uh, those numbers are so much bigger than any numbers that we're talking about, including child care, that it's going to take care.

We're gonna have - I, I look forward to having no deficits within a fairly short period of time, coupled with, uh, the reductions that I told you about on waste and fraud and all of the other things that are going on in our country, because I have to stay with child care. I want to stay with child care, but those numbers are small relative to the kind of economic numbers that I'm talking about, including growth, but growth also headed up by what the plan is that I just, uh, that I just told you about.

We're gonna be taking in trillions of dollars, and as much as child care, uh, is talked about as being expensive, it's, relatively speaking, not very expensive compared to the kind of numbers we'll be taking in. We're going to make this into an incredible country that can afford to take care of its people, and then we'll worry about the rest of the world. Let's help other people, but we're going to take care of our country first. This is about America first. It's about Make America Great Again, we have to do it because right now we're a failing nation, so we'll take care of it. Thank you. Very good question. Thank you.
I'm supposed to believe that this is incoherent word salad, and is further evidence that Trump is in an advanced state of dementia. However I think what he said makes sense -- in a way. Brendan Nyhan sums up my take on this:
For the record, he's trying to say the cost of child care will be taken care of by his tariff and economic growth, but he can't say one thing about child care because he *doesn't know anything about it* and he's blustering through like a student who didn't do the reading.
Right. Trump knows nothing about the cost of child care or specific proposals to fund it, so he talks around that and says that his magic tariffs will generate massive amounts of revenue -- presumably with zero inflation! -- as will economic growth and the same crackdowns on "waste and fraud and all of the other things that are going on in our country" that every Republican has promised since at least the late twentieth century, and as a result we'll be able to toss huge amounts of child care money at families with young children and still have plenty left over for everything else we need to do. Oh, and we'll stop running deficits!

This isn't dementia. This is lying. It's actually the same sort of lying Republicans have done for decades, except that they've said that their tax cuts won't result in revenue-reducing shortfalls and he says that tariffs will make all of our economic problems go away, including revenue shortfalls, without creating any new problems of their own. Being a dishonest used car salesman who'll promise you anything to make the sale is, in part, how Trump got here. He wins or comes close in general elections because, after a decade of The Apprentice, many people who aren't superfans hear him and say, Well, he's a brilliant businessman, so I trust him when he says he can do this.

I understand why Kamala Harris's campaign and other Trump critics want to portray this as the product of a brain that no longer works the way its owner wants it to work. I hope that message hurts Trump at the polls. But Trump's brain is still working more or less as intended. He's a lifelong bullshit artist and he's still reasonably good at bullshitting. (At the end of his answer, the audience gives him a round of applause, even though his listeners are people who know his numbers can't possibly add up.)

And now here's a riff from the speech itself that's being mocked:


But this also makes sense -- at least if you consume massive amounts of right-wing media. It's not about the school shooting. Here's a transcript:
Colorado. Aurora. Has anyone been there? I think you'd better stay away for a little while. They had AK-47s. The ultimate guns. AK-47s. They can blow lots of people away real fast. And the sheriff didn't want to touch 'em. Nobody wants to touch 'em. "Sheriff, there's eighteen Venezuelans attacking my building. Would you please come over and straighten out this situa--?" He's got a deputy. You know what they say? "Ah, well, no thanks. Let's call in the military." They're taking over, and I said this four years [clip cuts off]
Like your right-wing uncle whose rants every Thanksgiving are incomprehensible unless you watch six hours of Fox News a day, Trump is assuming that everyone in his audience is familiar with a story that's been heavily pushed by the New York Post, Fox, and other right-wing outlets.

If you believe these sources, you think the entire city of Aurora, Colorado, has been taken over by a Venezuelan criminal gang. But other news sources tells a different story. Here's AP:
Police in the Denver suburb of Aurora say a Venezuela street gang with a small presence in the city has not taken over a rundown apartment complex — yet the allegation continues to gain steam among conservatives and was amplified by former President Donald Trump in a Wednesday Fox News town hall where he said Venezuelans were “taking over the whole town.”

The unsubstantiated allegation gained momentum following last month’s dissemination of video from a resident in the complex that showed armed men knocking on an apartment door, intensifying fears the Tren de Aragua gang was in control of the six-building complex.

However, city officials indicate the buildings, along with two other apartment complexes, were run down because of neglect by the property manager, CBZ Management.
The news site Denverite tells us this:
There are a handful of apartment buildings in Aurora owned by CBZ Management, a company based in Brooklyn, New York. For years, residents of several of those buildings have complained about rats, mice and insects, concerns over crime and poor treatment by management.

All that predates the arrival of tens of thousands of Venezuelan immigrants in the Denver area.

For the past two years, Aurora has been working to get the property owners into compliance with the law, said Jessica Prosser, Aurora’s director of housing and community services, at a press conference in August.

Many newly arrived Venezuelans and other Spanish-speaking immigrants were placed into those apartments by nonprofits....

We know there have been recent assaults and shootings at and near some of the properties. Aurora Police arrested a man on suspicion of attempted homicide and say he is connected to Tren de Aragua.

Police also said the allegations of rent theft have surfaced at several CBZ Management properties....

We also know there is a video of men with guns entering one of the apartments at The Edge at Lowry. Aurora Police have not confirmed the identity of those men.

At that same apartment complex, Denverite reporters saw multiple mice and bedbugs; mold growing in a bathtub; a stove that hasn’t worked for two months; a sink that won’t drain; and a broken fan.

However, the entire city of Aurora has not been taken over by the gang, as the Colorado Republican Party claimed in a fundraising email. Police have been at The Edge at Lowry speaking with residents, and the Aurora police chief says that no gang is running the apartment complex. Residents said the same at a Tuesday press conference at the building.
The video is disturbing.


But it's clear that CBZ Management, the Brooklyn-based company that runs this building, is extraordinarily neglectful. The Republican mayor of Aurora called the company "out-of-state slumlords." Online comments about the company, in both Colorado and Brooklyn, are universally negative (click to enlarge):


We can have a conversation about immigrant gangs in America. That's fine. But this is a complicated story. And it's definitely not a story of a gang takeover of an entire city, as Denverite notes:
Walk through Aurora, and it’s clear: The gang has not taken over the city, even as some gang members have committed a handful of crimes. Blocks away from The Edge at Lowry, neighbors shop in local stores, mow their lawns, ride their e-bikes and carry on life as usual.
Trump's rhetotic is dishonest, hyperbolic, and inflammatory -- but that's bog-standard for Republicans in 2024. He's not losing his marbles. He's just telling phony stories.
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Thursday, September 05, 2024

IF YOU'RE CERTAIN THAT THE GOP'S ELECTION FRAUD NARRATIVE IS FALSE, DON'T HEDGE

There's a story in The New York Times by Alexandra Berzon about the Republican argument that significant numbers of undocumented immigrants are voting in American elections, and voting exclusively Democratic. The piece is a mixed bag. The headline is good:
Republicans Seize on False Theories About Immigrant Voting
"False" is good. "False" is unambiguous. But here's the subhead:
Activists, party lawyers and state officials are mobilizing behind a crackdown on a supposed scourge of noncitizens’ casting ballots. Voting rights advocates say the effort is spreading misinformation.
"Supposed" is skeptical, but it's a retreat from "false." And then the two-sentence structure of the subhead suggests that there realy is room for disagreement.

A few paragraphs in, Berzon tells us:
There is no indication that noncitizens are voting in large numbers. And yet the notion that they will flood the polls — and vote overwhelmingly for Democrats — is animating a sprawling network of Republicans who mobilized around former President Donald J. Trump’s false claims of a rigged election in 2020 and are now preparing for the next one.
This is accurate as far as it goes -- but this framing, which is standard for the mainstream media, provides a huge opening for Republicans. Non-citizens aren't voting "in large numbers"? What does that mean? Does it mean they are voting in fairly significant numbers, but Democrats want us to let it slide because the numbers aren't "large"?

As one Times reader says in the comments:
The important phrase, routinely underplayed by both sides, is "in large numbers." The Right want us to believe that illegal voters turn out on election day in innumerable hordes, while the Left (as in this article) discount "large numbers" dismissively, as if small numbers were nothing to worry about. But US elections are almost always won by a razor thin minority. Even a couple of thousand votes either way can and does make all the difference. In such circumstances, even small numbers are a major concern.
But it's not true that "US elections are almost always won by a razor thin" margin. In 2022 House elections, the average margin of victory was 28.9 percentage points. In that year's Senate elections, it was 19.6 percentage points.

Yes, we've all been told that Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election because of close wins in several battleground states. But "close" meant a 10,457-vote margin of victory in Arizona, an 11,779-vote margin in Georgia, a 20,682-vote margin in Wisconsin, a 33,596-vote margin in Nevada, an 80,555-vote margin in Pennsylvania, and a 154,188-votes margin in Michigan. These margins go unmentioned in Berzon's story.

Now, how many votes by undocumented voters are there? Many, many paragraphs into the story, we're told this:
A recent analysis published by the Cato Institute, the libertarian think tank, found that the number of votes cast by noncitizens discovered through state audits in 2016 ranged from three in Nevada, out of over a million votes cast, to 41 in North Carolina, where nearly five million votes were cast.
Many more paragraphs later, we're told:
One researcher, Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, a senior fellow at the American Immigration Council, an immigrant rights group, recently reviewed the Heritage Foundation’s data and found just 68 documented cases of noncitizens’ voting going back to the 1980s. And although the current frenzy is focused on undocumented immigrants, only a small fraction of those cases — just 10 — involved people living in the country illegally.
Voting by undocumented immigrants at this level couldn't possibly have tipped any of Biden's close states to Trump, even assuming that every undocumented voter voted for Biden. (It's an article of faith on the right that undocumented immigrants who manage to vote always vote Democratic, but this assertion is always presented without evidence.)

Yet although these numbers make it clear that Republicans who campaign against voting by undocumented immigrants are targeting a problem that barely exists, Berzon "balances" these statistics with Republican propaganda:
Republicans argue that even one illegal vote is too many and that the data is not capturing the scope of the potential problem given the millions of undocumented immigrants in the country.
What does "the potential problem" even mean in this context? Researchers have looked at the actual problem, and it's not a problem.
Cleta Mitchell, whose Election Integrity Network organized the July conference call of activists, said she believed that the “vast numbers of illegals” in the country represented a “huge threat to the integrity of our elections.”
But it clearly doesn't! Berzon's numbers make that clear.
“I’m sure you would agree that every illegal vote cancels a legal, citizen’s vote — so that even one such vote is a problem for democracy,” she said in an email to The Times.
Yes, it's a problem -- a tiny, tiny problem that's not affecting the outcome of elections.

And yet Republicans are given even more column inches to make their bad-faith case:
Conservative groups like the Heritage Foundation and the Public Interest Legal Foundation have tracked alleged instances of noncitizen voting, some of which turned out to be wrong. Even small numbers can decide tight elections, they say....
But number this small aren't deciding tight elections.

Readers who read to the end of the story will come away understanding how flimsy the GOP's evidence is:
In 2019, Texas’ secretary of state, David Whitley, claimed he had identified nearly 100,000 noncitizens on the rolls and demanded that many produce proof of citizenship. Subsequent lawsuits and examination by voting rights advocates showed that the review was based on faulty methodology: The list included many people who had once submitted immigration documents to obtain a state identification. But they had since become naturalized as citizens, making them lawful voters. Mr. Whitley resigned amid blowback from the episode.
The key point is that Republicans can't point to a single election in which there's documented evidence of voting for Democrats by non-citizens in sufficient numbers to change the electoral outcome, and that should be Berzon's lede. That should be the lede of every journalist who writes about this. The supporting evidence should be the vast discrepancy between the actual number of voter-fraud cases and the victory margins in the elections Republicans are challenging.

The evidence is all on one side. No responsible journalist should treat a GOP "fraud" crusader as in any way credible.
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