HERE'S WHAT WOULD REALLY HAPPEN IF BIDEN RESIGNED

I'm not sure whether President Biden should stay on the ticket or step aside. I don't see much evidence that he's suffering large numbers of defections -- in the latest CNN poll, the gap between Biden and Donald Trump is exactly the same as it was in April, and a CBS poll shows only a small and possibly temporary slippage for Biden. Biden needs to gain ground and hasn't found a way to do that, so that could be a reason to switch. But no other candidate seems likely to electrify the public -- except perhaps Michelle Obama, who won't run.

If Biden does drop out, nominating anyone other than Kamala Harris could mean leaving a massive amount of money on the table, as David Dayen recently explained:

The Biden for President campaign committee controls candidate contributions for the 2024 election. It has received $220 million up through May 31; we know that in the four days from last Thursday’s debate through Monday, the campaign committee raised another $33 million. As of May 31, the committee had $91.5 million in cash on hand.

If Biden, as candidate, wanted to contribute money from this account to another candidate for the presidency, he’s limited to $2,000 per election. If Biden withdraws, he could convert this campaign committee to a political action committee. In that case he could direct $3,300 to another candidate. These numbers, it must be said, are significantly smaller than what’s in the account....

The only way these complications are nullified is if Vice President Harris is the nominee. Harris and Biden share this campaign committee, as the federal campaign finance laws allow for one fund when the president and vice president run on the same ticket. So if Harris succeeded Biden, she would control all the funds in the campaign committee and could use them in the election campaign.

If Biden does step aside, he should do so in favor of Harris.

But some pundits, such as Daniel Drezner, think Biden should step aside and resign the presidency. Drezner's reasons include this:

The move would put Harris at Trump’s level and eliminate experience as a Trump argument during the campaign.

But this is America. We don't vote on experience. The less experienced candidate was elected president in 1976, 1992, 2000, 2008, and 2016.

Emptywheel says this is a terrible idea, and she's right, but I'm not sure she adequately conveys why it's a terrible idea. She writes:

It turns out with a House packed with rabid supporters of Trump and led by a better-spoken but equally rabid supporter of this fascist project, having a Vice President is an important failsafe for democracy.

That’s true for two reasons. First, remember what happened on January 6, 2021? Big mob, chants of “hang the VP,” tweets encouraging the mob to do so? The VP may not have a big portfolio on most days. But she does on the day that, recent history warns us, is a fragile moment of our democracy. Certainly, it’s possible Democrats could convince Republicans to let Patty Murray do that job, as Chuck Grassley was prepared to do back in 2021.

But the bigger problem is the target you would put on Kamala Harris’ back if she became a President, running for re-election, without a Vice President as her designated successor. Trump has already made it clear he plans to return to power by any means necessary. Trump has already spent years frothing up his followers to a frenzy that could (and has) tipped into violence with little notice. Indeed, more than a handful of Trump’s supporters have embraced violence, some after getting riled up on Truth Social, others after little more than an incendiary Fox News rant.

The Secret Service did a piss poor job of protecting Kamala Harris on January 6. Let’s not tempt fate or Trump’s rabid brown shirts to make Mike Johnson President.

In a sane America, Harris would have a vice president if she replaced Biden as president. Section 2 of the 25th Amendment not only gives Harris the right to pick a VP, it suggests that she would be required to pick one:

Whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress.

But there's the problem. The House has a Republican majority, and the people who make up that majority will inevitably reject anyone Harris chooses, though only after a sustained campaign of character assassination and kangaroo-court hearings, probably chaired by Jim Jordan in full pitbull-on-bath-salts mode. This process will be designed to waste Harris's time just as she's trying to cold-start a campaign, and make her look like a failure who can't even win a vote in Congress.

The 25th Amendment was ratified in 1967. Two presidents have chosen VPs this way: Richard Nixon chose Gerald Ford after Spiro Agnew's resignation, then Ford chose Nelson Rockefeller after Nixon resigned. Ford was nominated on October 12, 1973, and approved on November 27; the votes were bipartisan (92-3 in the Senate and 387-35 in the House). Rockefeller's choice was more contentious:

Rockefeller underwent extended hearings before Congress, suffering embarrassment when it was revealed he made massive gifts to senior aides, such as Henry Kissinger, and used his personal fortune to finance a scurrilous biography of political opponent Arthur Goldberg.... He had also taken debatable deductions on his federal income taxes, and ultimately agreed to pay nearly one million dollars to settle the issue, but no illegalities were uncovered, and he was confirmed.... a minority bloc [of conservative Republicans] (including Barry Goldwater, Jesse Helms and Trent Lott) voted against him.... Many conservative groups campaigned against Rockefeller's nomination, including the National Right to Life Committee, the American Conservative Union, and others.

Rockefeller won a 90-7 vote in the Senate and a 287-128 vote in the House, but it took Ford four months to get him approved. (This year's presidential election is in four months.) The process of seeking approval for Harris VP nominee would be much, much rougher.

If Harris has no vice president, would Republicans allow someone else to sub in for the VP on January 6, 2025? In 2021, Democrats probably would have, but there's no way Republicans will do so next January.

Therefore, Democrats need Harris to remain as VP. Biden absolutely should not resign.

*****

Harris, of course, can pick a running mate without congressional approval. That person, however, would have no power to participate in January 6 if Harris wins. (The VP-elect won't be sworn in until January 20.)

If Harris is the nominee, I'm worried that we're going to hear the usual pundit blather about a "unity ticket." The commentariat will try to portray Biden's low approval ratings as a sign that voters are rejecting Democrats, or at least mainstream Democrats. They'll make ridiculous proposals for Harris's #2: Mitt Romney, Liz Cheney, Jamie Dimon, Joe Manchin.

If Harris is the nominee, that message should be met with scorn and ridicule. Mainstream Democrats have been doing very well in off-year elections -- and as Nate Silver notes, mainstream Democrats are outpolling Biden right now:

There are five presidential swing states that also have highly competitive Senate races this year: Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.... In those states, there have been 47 nonpartisan surveys conducted since Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump emerged as their parties’ clear nominees in March....

None of the 47 polls — not a single one of them — showed the Democratic candidate trailing in the Senate race, though two showed a tie. In contrast, Mr. Biden led in only seven of the surveys, was tied with Mr. Trump in two and trailed in the other 38.

Silver offers this as a reason for Biden to withdraw from the race -- but I'm offering it as a reason why Harris (or any other Democrat who might take over if Biden steps aside) should pick a real Democrat as a running mate.

The Democratic message is popular. There's no reason for Democrats to field a "unity ticket." But many pundits will propose that if Biden withdraws. They may hate the actually existing Democratic Party, but the public doesn't.