Wednesday, July 31, 2024

POLITICAL SKILL IS HARRIS'S BEST REBUTTAL TO RACISM AND SEXISM

Kamala Harris is being attacked at a "DEI" vice president who, if elected, would be a "DEI" president. The usually wrongheaded Matt Bai recognizes that this is an unfair attack:
It’s true that Joe Biden had committed to choosing a woman as his running mate by the time the death of George Floyd threw the country into turmoil in the summer of 2020. It’s also true that he then came under enormous pressure to choose a Black candidate, as well, which is why his final list included multiple Black women.

... Absent her identity, it’s hard to imagine she would have been anywhere near Biden’s top choice.

But you know what? You could say the same for almost every vice-presidential pick in recent memory. Would JD Vance be on Donald Trump’s ticket if he weren’t a rural White guy from Ohio? Was Sarah Palin chosen for her vast policy experience? Would Barack Obama have chosen Biden if he hadn’t felt he needed a validator for White working-class voters?

To say that Harris is where she is largely because of her identity is to say she is the vice president of the United States. To say that makes her somehow different from everybody else who gets the job is just plain ignorant.
But Bai thinks Harris should respond to the smear directly -- and, because he can never resist taking a cheap shot at liberals, he blames us for the fact that she might not:
What Harris can do ... is tell her own personal story: of a girl born to two immigrant academic parents (one Indian and one Jamaican), a child of divorce raised with the help of a strong African American community, who willed herself to a higher level in U.S. government than any woman in history. It’s the story she only started to tell during that [2020 primary] debate with Biden — not of victimization or futility in the face of prejudice but of the promise of American opportunity, aided by activist government. Simply by recounting her own improbable journey, Harris can embody the American story that most voters still want to believe.

That’s not the pessimistic story some on the left want to hear right now.
Maybe she should talk that way. Or maybe she should keep doing what she's doing, which seems to be working.

A story in The New York Times today discusses the attacks Harris faces online and is genteel in talking about the sexist ones:
Sexist posts ... claimed that Ms. Harris was indebted to men for her success.
That's ... putting it mildly. Online posts claim that Harris used sex to advance her career, including, for some reason (and basecd on no evidence), one particular sex act. (Here's a selection of memes on that subject, though you'll want some brain bleach after looking at them.) But the Times story is correct: The message is that she got where she is without deserving it.

She could address this directly, too. But I think what she's doing is a better response.

If haters are saying that you don't deserve to be where you are, you need to show them that you do deserve it. Harris is doing that right now. We're seeing her skills as a politician. Through the long months of the Joe Biden reelection campaign, I said that voters, especially swing voters, judge politicians on how they speak, because if you can respond to the news articulately and confidently, that conveys a sense that you understand the nation's problems and are on top of them, and that you're steady and reliable and well informed and capable of sound judgment. Sure, it's possible to be good at speaking while also being ignorant or incompetent -- think of Sarah Palin's 2008 Republican concvention speech, which sounded pretty sharp -- but you need to create a sustained impression of sharpness and competence, and Palin couldn't.

Right now, Harris looks as if she can. This won't persuade the haters, obviously. But it should persuade many of the doubters.

She sounds good on the stump. She sounds fearless:



Harris looks as if she knows how to campaign. Trump, with great fanfare, released an ad attacking her on immigration:


Instead of ducking the subject, Harris attacked him right back:



You might not agree with her immigration stance, but she's offering solutions. She's not afraid to talk about the issue, and she has proposals.

In 2008, Barack Obama was accused of being a celebrity and a lightweight, but it was clear when he spoke that he understood the issues in depth and could talk about them in a clear, compelling, and inspiring way. In 1992, when Bill Clinton was being called "the failed governor of a small state," the same thing worked for him. Pete Buttigieg's intelligence and eloquence, though not as compelling as Obama's, Clinton's, or Harris's, has persuaded many people since the 2020 campaign that he deserves to be taken seriously.

Harris has the verbal chops. Harris has smart ideas about how to take on Trump. Does she deserve to be where she is? By demonstrating skill, she's showing that she does.

Tuesday, July 30, 2024

REPUBLICAN WEIRDNESS IS MORE THAN COUCH DEEP

I have a habit -- here and in real life -- of expressing concerns at times when other people think everything's going fine. The result is that I come off as someone who always thinks things are going badly. Often, all I'm trying to say is that things could go wrong, or that one aspect of something that's otherwise positive could be improved. But I don't communicate well enough to make what I'm thinking clear -- and I come off as a bummer when everyone else is happy.

I did this yesterday when I expressed some concerns about the Kamala Harris campaign strategy of calling Republicans "weird," and as a result I conveyed the impression that I don't think Democrats should ever fight (even though I said they should) and I don't think Democrats should ever point out how peculiar Republicans and their ideas are.

I focused quite a bit on the fake J.D. Vance couch story because it seemed like the launchpad for the entire "weird" campaign. (I was told in the comments yesterday that the couch moment has passed, but Illinois governor J.B. Pritzker reportedly made three couch jokes on the White Dudes for Harris Zoom call last night, so it's going strong.) I still wish Democrats had limited themselves to real Republican weirdness. Actual Republican policies are weird:

Wanting to ban polio vaccines: fucking weird!!!

[image or embed]

— Talia Lavin (@swordsjew.bsky.social) Jul 29, 2024 at 10:51 PM

Republicans don't actually seem to want to ban polio vaccines, but shrinking numbers of them support vaccination, as Radley Balko notes:
In April the New Hampshire legislature passed a bill removing the requirement for a polio and measles vaccine to attend public schools. Republicans in Wisconsin, Georgia, Montana, and Iowa have tried to restrict or remove vaccine requirements for public facing government jobs, which may include public schools. Other Republican legislatures have passed or introduced bills that erode support for vaccines in other ways, such as barring state governments from advocating them. The Republican party in Lee County, Florida, wants to ban the COVID vaccine for everyone, and Montana Republicans have tried to ban people who have received the COVID vaccine from donating blood.
That's weird.

I like the way AOC and Josh Shapiro link weirdness to policy:


And I think it's great to nail Republicans on style if the attack is based on real things they do, especially when they're proud of what they're doing. The montage below is very good -- and I especially like it because it's not limited to Trump and MAGA (I hope the idea that the GOP is a fine collection of individuals who'll revert to decency once Trump passes from the scene died when Joe Biden withdrew from the race):


Techdirt's Mike Masnick thinks it might be pointless even to try to pivot to substance -- as he sees it, Trumpers never do, so attacking them by changing the vibe is the only way to go:
In the last week, there’s been a notable difference in the way the Democrats have campaigned against the Trumpist GOP, since Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 Presidential election. The Democrats have not focused that much on debunking any of the many, many (many) falsehoods the Trump/Vance campaign spews. They haven’t even focused as heavily on the extreme policies the campaign is pushing (though, that’s a part of it).

Instead, they’ve leaned in deeply on just how fucking weird Trump and Vance and their core beliefs are. And, in many ways, this seems to be generating excitement, at least online, from Democrats who were kinda blah about Biden and his chances.

Of course, this kind of campaign-by-meme and focusing on mockery over policy was embraced by Donald Trump going back nearly a decade. It took forever for the Democrats to figure out a way to counter it. Trump’s entire argument against Democrats has been to constantly mock them and never engage seriously on policy. And it’s worked....

Who knows if it will be effective in the long run. I have no sense about the political viability of it all. But at a first pass, it seems like it’s done an impressive job in reframing the debate away from this idea that Trumpworld are plotting to destroy everything (which feels unbelievable) to just: get a fucking load of what these dumbasses believe, and how incredibly dorky they are.
Is it true that Trumpers "never engage seriously on policy"? They seem pretty damn serious about policy when they're warning that Democratic rule means a pedophile drag queen in every library and a murder-minded undocumented immigrant under every bed (and in every voting booth). Rolling back LGBTQ rights and conducting a mass deportation of immigrants seem like real policy goals.

And I don't know why the idea that "Trumpworld are plotting to destroy everything ... feels unbelievable." Masnick seems to be saying that MAGA is one big exercise in mockery, jokes, and humiliation of liberals with no actual political content, but MAGA has plenty of political content. There are 900 pages of political content in Project 2025.

But, yes, the Trumpers combine this with the three-ring Trump circus, the rallies and boat parades and massive trucks covered with anti-liberal bumper stickers.

That's the right combination for Democrats, too -- jokes plus substance. We ought to be able to do real substance, because Republicans really are trying to destroy everything. Changing the vibe is good, but if Trump (and Fox and the rest of the GOP noise machine) can talk about issues and scare the rabble without spoiling the party, we should be able to do that too. And it looks as if many Democrats understand that.

Monday, July 29, 2024

WE'RE DUKAKISING J.D. VANCE, AND I DON'T KNOW HOW I FEEL ABOUT THAT

None of you agreed with me when I said this in the comments to an earlier post, but I'll say it again: I don't like the J.D. Vance couch meme.

I don't like it for a lot of reasons: First, it's disinformation. Vance did not write in Hillbilly Elegy that he once masturbated as a teenager by inserting his penis into a latex glove and placing the glove between two couch cushions. I want Democrats to be better than Republicans about respecting the truth and not smearing opponents with lies. I remember GOP lies during presidential campaigns: Republicans told us that a young Kitty Dukakis burned an American flag, that Bill Clinton was a youthful Russian spy, that John Kerry served dishonorably in Vietnam. I understand that I'm supposed to see this as payback, and not as Democrats saying that we're at war, so a respect for truth is something we might need to sacrifice.

I also don't like the couch meme because if he did this as an adolescent, so what? Teenagers masturbate, and some get creative when they're doing it. Who knows how your favorite politician or athlete or pop star jacked off (or jilled off) at the age of fifteen?

This meme worked, but for a reason that makes me uncomfortable: because Vance is weird and spectrum-y and awkward as a public figure. Part of me is thrilled to see Democrats taking advantage of a Republican's awkwardness and part of me is uncomfortable: Republicans said Kerry, Hillary Clinton, Al Gore, and Mike Dukakis were weird and spectrum-y and awkward, and that was a big reason why all four lost their elections. Are we now agreeing that those were valid lines of attack?

"Weird" is the word Democrats are using to attack Republicans this year.


I like this line of attack when it's connected to weird ideas and weird policies. Denouncing adults without children as "childless cat ladies" and proposing that parents get extra votes? Preventing interstate travel by women seeking abortions? Wanting to replace American democracy with brutal tech-enabled micro-monarchies, as recommended by Vance's friend Curtis Yarvin, aka Mencius Moldbug? Those are weird ideas. "Weird" is a good word to use in reference to those proposals.

But it seems to me that Vance is being attacked as weird merely because he's a spectrum-y guy who has ideas, which is exactly what happened to Dukakis, Gore, and other Democrats. I don't like that. The attacks on those Democrats always felt to me like a respectable adult version of high school bullying, and this has some of the same qualities.

If Kamala Harris picks Minnesota governor Tim Walz as his running mate, we'll see, at least at the vice presidential level, a reversal of the pattern we had when Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush led the GOP: Democrats will be the party in which a gregarious man says his ideas are simple common sense, while Republican ideas are peculiar notions cooked up by eggheads who spend way too much time in their rooms alone.


"Climate change must be a hoax because Al Gore is a weirdo" is a statement millions of Americans believe. Maybe it's good that we're attacking Republicans the same way, but I wonder.

I'm also concerned that it will be hard to use "weird" in reference to both J.D. Vance and Donald Trump. Trump's public affect is the exact opposite of Vance's sullen-nerd persona. Vance seems as if he spends hours seeking pseudo-intellectual and pseudo-scientific justifications for his own prejudices and resentments. But Trump just blurts out whatever he thinks after two minutes of watching Fox News. He's gregarious where Vance is mumbly. Intellectually, I see how they both fall into the category of "weird," but viscerally they seem to belong to very different high school cafeteria tables. I'll accept the argument that we're in a battle for America and therefore we can't forsake any weapon, but I wonder if you can even get swing voters to see both Trump and Vance as "weird." Can this even work against the guy at the top of the ticket? It's clear we're about to find out.

ADDING: I think Democrats should fight. As I said in the comments a couple of days ago, I think Democrats should fight much harder than the milquetoast generation that ran the party until a couple of weeks ago ever wanted to fight. I'm just questioning whether this is the best way to fight. And until Harris is five or more points in the lead in all the polls, I think the jury will still be out on whether this aspect of the new Democratic combativeness is working.

Sunday, July 28, 2024

NO RIGHT-WING VILLAINS, PLEASE -- WE'RE THE NEW YORK TIMES

The New York Times has just posted a long story -- more than 3,600 words, twenty and a half minutes in the audio version -- about people who belong to an online community called Patriot Party News, which features conspiratorial right-wing chat and promotes medical quackery.

When I say "conspiratorial right-wing chat," I mean this:
In a fracturing country, here was an echo chamber with the power to turn fringe conspiracy theories into widely accepted political dogmas — that the Covid vaccine was poison, the mainstream media was deceitful and the federal government was controlled by a “deep state cabal” that had stolen the 2020 election from former President Donald J. Trump and was now trying to orchestrate his assassination.

“I saw somewhere this morning that the vaccine’s killed more people than Hitler and Stalin combined,” said a woman who went by the name Truth and Freedom Fighter.

“It’s genocide, 100 percent,” Michael said, as he pulled himself out of bed.

“I want handcuffs and perp walks for all those criminals,” someone else said. “Who goes first? Fauci, Obama or Biden?”
And when I say "medical quackery," I mean this:
Of all the wild conspiracies he’d discovered on Patriot Party News, the concept of medbeds had initially struck Michael as the most far-fetched, even if it was also among the most popular. Every few days, someone else on the platform shared an illustration of a futuristic-looking chamber, sometimes with a doctored image of Trump superimposed in the foreground. The founder of the site, Armour, sometimes mentioned videos or podcasts about medbeds that had become popular on the far-right corners of Telegram, Discord and Rumble, and Michael clicked on the links, as did millions of others.

The videos claimed with no evidence that the U.S. military was already in possession of advanced, or possibly even alien, technology that could cure all disease and extend human life. There were said to be at least three types of medbeds already in existence in secret military tunnels. One, a “holographic medbed,” scanned the body to instantly diagnose and then heal any sickness, no matter how severe. Another bed was able to regenerate personal DNA so people could regrow missing limbs in a few minutes. A third was designed for reverse aging and could rewind people’s bodies to the age and condition of their choosing.

The only holdup, according to the videos, was that a collection of liberal billionaires kept hoarding the technology for themselves. On the Patriot Party News audio feed, people speculated that medbeds wouldn’t be available to the public until Trump was back in control of the White House, at which point everyone would be invited to make appointments for free at a secret underground military base.
But this isn't a story about toxic disinformation, and it's only glancingly about villains who commit medical fraud. It's about how this community of liberal-haters is formed out of pain. It asks readers to feel sorry for people who want to arrest Anthony Fauci for a mythical medical genocide, because some of them are desperate for a medical miracle.

Here's the lede:
Michael Chesebro awoke to the same reality as he did each morning, with pain radiating up his spine and into his shoulders before he opened his eyes. He remained still for a moment, summoning the courage to reach from his bed to his night stand. He rolled onto his back, which was fused together with metal after almost 20 years as a paratrooper in the military. He extended his arm, which he had broken several times while wrangling bulls and horses on his ranch outside Cheyenne, Wyo. Finally, his hand found his cellphone, and he logged on to the online universe where he spent most of his days.

“How’re we all doing this morning?” asked Michael, 63. “I’m hurting again — too much time spent jumping out of perfectly good airplanes.”

“You served our country well,” a retired teacher from Kansas responded.

“Hang in there, patriot,” a truck driver in Texas said. “Remember, the pain’s only real if you believe in it.”

“Distract me,” Michael said. “What part of our country is falling apart today?”

On the other end of his phone were hundreds of people in a live voice chat for Patriot Party News, one of about a dozen far-right media platforms that has grown in both size and influence over the past few years, not only by creating an ecosystem of disinformation but also by providing an authentic sense of community.
I have no doubt that Michael Chesebro's pain is genuine. I'm sure it's terrible. But after years in which the Times has demanded that we really get to know right-wingers while rarely telling us about the vile things these trucker-hat-wearing diner customers believe, we get this story in which some of the beliefs are made clear -- but, we're effectively told, you can't blame the believers because they're hurting. Either they're hurting or they're colorfully down-home:
There was Bill, a farmer in central Wisconsin whose frequent raves about Trump were sometimes difficult to hear over the roar of his tractor; and Val, a retired art teacher who sometimes read aloud from the Bible; and Keith, who had recently been paralyzed from the knee down by an infection and was relearning to walk; and Meagan, a single mother of five who requested prayers for her child’s flag football games; and Janel, who was facing foreclosure on her house in Illinois and trying to rehome all 30 of her cats; and Jay, a real estate agent who spent his free time bass fishing; and Beverly, who was taking care of her husband, who had advanced dementia, because she couldn’t afford to pay for help. “I’m hanging on by a thread,” she said one night. “He’s very difficult to handle, and now he hallucinates. Most days I’m ready to give up, but going to bed listening to the chat on this platform is what saves my sanity.”
The photos chosen to illustrate the story are clearly intended to elicit empathy ...



... or to romanticize the subjects' way of life:



We all know that many people who believe the most extreme right-wing conspiracy theories are just ... assholes. They're not in an extraordinary amount of pain, and they're not colorfully rural. They're the uncle who shows up at Thanksgiving and starts baiting everyone before he gets his coat off. They're the people with JOE AND THE HO GOTTA GO bumper stickers on their vehicles. They're not sympathetic figures.

But in The New York Times, there are no villains in MAGA Land. There are only people we need to understand. We're even supposed to like some of the purveyors of this snake oil:
And then there was Andrea, the new owner of a medbed spa. She was a nail technician and certified wellness coach who had specialized in diet programs until she decided in January to buy Baxter’s products and rent a building across the street from a hospital in Sheridan.

“We’re still hoping to get F.D.A. approved, but that whole process is so corrupt anyway,” she said on the audio channel. “You can’t totally grasp the magic of it until you try it. Honestly, it’s a God thing.”

... Andrea had decided to charge $85 an hour for use of the beds, but insurance didn’t cover the experimental treatment, and she didn’t believe in turning anyone away. In the past few months, people had arrived from across the West hoping for answers for their late-stage cancer, A.L.S., chronic depression and dementia, and Andrea let some of them use a medbed for free. She cooked for them, found them places to stay and often held their hands to pray before they lay down in the medbed.

“I don’t care if it means I’m losing some money,” Andrea told Michael. “I feel like I landed smack dab in the middle of my purpose on this planet.”
Andrea is the woman giving the big hug in the second photo above. She's clearly meant to be a sympathetic figure.

The chief purveyors of this phony technology appear only briefly: Warren Armour, the co-founder of Patriot Party News, and John Baxter, whose company sells the medbeds. They're described in flat, neutral language:
The Patriot Party News feed included regular segments on essential oils, unproven supplements and ivermectin, and one morning Armour came onto the platform and introduced another “truth-seeking health expert.” His name was John Baxter, and he had spent his career in the Florida mattress industry before founding a company called Anti-Aging Beds, which had received a warning letter from the Food and Drug Administration in 2020 for selling unproven medication. Baxter introduced himself as an inventor and the author of a self-published book: “The Med Bed Story — Restoring the Health of Humanity.”

“We are the only ones in the medbed movement that actually have a bed,” Baxter said, as Michael listened with hundreds of others. “It’s available, and it’s ready for you to try.”
This could have been a story about predatory quacks, but the Times doesn't like stories that have right-wing villains. Instead, this is a story about good people who seek to treat their pain with non-traditional remedies -- Trumpism as well as preposterous medical technology -- and we're supposed to root for them:
Andrea punched in a few codes and the bed began to recline and then vibrate. Michael pulled a blanket over his chest and took out his phone to type a quick note into the chat forum on Patriot Party News. “FOMO!” he wrote. “Haven’t been on for a bit because I’ve got the whole family getting Baxter treatments.” He checked back a few moments later to track the flow of replies.

“Thank God! Medbed miracle!”

“Can’t wait until Trump makes these available for all true Patriots.”

Andrea came back into the room and stood by the doorway, holding up her own phone. “People on the platform are so excited,” she said. “Is your back starting to feel better at all?”

He shifted in the bed and stared up at the ceiling, trying to believe, working to align his mind with the right frequencies.

“You know what?” he said, after a moment. “I think it does.”
Because only bubble-dwelling elitist haters look at Red America and see something malignant.

Saturday, July 27, 2024

Friday, July 26, 2024

J.D. VANCE BELIEVES IN FAMILIES, NOT CITIZENS, AND ONLY SOME FAMILIES

On social media yesterday, The Rude Pundit said something astute:


By now I'm sure you know what Vance told Tucker Carlson about "childless cat ladies" in 2021:
“We’re effectively run in this country, via the Democrats, via our corporate oligarchs, by a bunch of childless cat ladies who are miserable at their own lives and the choices that they’ve made and so they want to make the rest of the country miserable too,” Vance said.

“It’s just a basic fact: You look at Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, AOC, the entire future of the Democrats is controlled by people without children,” he said. “And how does it make any sense that we’ve turned our country over to people that don’t have a direct stake in it.”
And maybe you know what he said in a speech that year about giving parents extra votes:
Let’s give votes to all children in this country, but let’s give control over those votes to the parents of those children. When you go to the polls in this country as a parent, you should have more power — you should have more of an ability to speak your voice in our democratic republic — than people who don’t have kids. Let’s face the consequences and the reality: If you don’t have as much of an investment in the future of this country, maybe you shouldn’t get nearly the same voice.
It's true: He doesn't believe you can care about this country simply because ... you care about this country.

Vance cares about his own family, and says he cares about America. But he believes in an America where people who aren't like his family aren't fully American, if they're American at all.

Take a look at the speech Vance delivered at the Republican convention earlier this month. He said:
You know, one of the things that you hear people say sometimes is that America is an idea. And to be clear, America was indeed founded on brilliant ideas, like the rule of law and religious liberty. Things written into the fabric of our Constitution and our nation. But America is not just an idea. It is a group of people with a shared history and a common future. It is, in short, a nation.
What does he mean by that? He means America is a place where some people are true citizens because they've been here longer than other citizens. People like his family -- including his own wife, but only conditionally:
Now, it is part of that tradition, of course, that we welcome newcomers. But when we allow newcomers into our American family, we allow them on our terms....

I am, of course, married to the daughter of South Asian immigrants to this country....

Now when I proposed to my wife, we were in law school, and I said, “Honey, I come with $120,000 worth of law school debt, and a cemetery plot on a mountainside in Eastern Kentucky.”

... Now that cemetery plot in Eastern Kentucky is near my family’s ancestral home.

... they love this country, not only because it’s a good idea, but because in their bones they know that this is their home, and it will be their children’s home, and they would die fighting to protect it.

...Now in that cemetery, there are people who were born around the time of the Civil War. And if, as I hope, my wife and I are eventually laid to rest there, and our kids follow us, there will be seven generations just in that small mountain cemetery plot in eastern Kentucky. Seven generations of people who have fought for this country. Who have built this country. Who have made things in this country. And who would fight and die to protect this country if they were asked to.

Now. Now that’s not just an idea, my friends. That’s not just a set of principle. Even though the ideas and the principles are great, that is a homeland. That is our homeland. People will not fight for abstractions, but they will fight for their home.
Vance's wife is worthy of being buried among these true Americans because she's borne his children. She's borne the children of a true American. That's what he means when he says, "we allow newcomers into our American family ... on our terms."

Recall that when Vance delivered this speech, he thought he'd be matching up with Kamala Harris, who's also the daughter of immigrants, but who hasn't borne any children, much less the children of anyone who could someday fairly soon have seven generations buried in one American cemetery. Harris is, of course, the stepmother to her husband's two children, but he's Jewish, and I don't believe his ancestors have been in America as long as Vance's (though if you've read Hillbilly Elegy, it's likely that they've been much more respectable citizens). So while Harris's parents were in America legally -- they were allowed in on America's terms -- she's unwelcome on Vance's terms.

All this reminds me of something Kathleen Parker wrote about Barack Obama in 2008, before she became a Washington Post columnist:
"A full-blooded American."

That's how 24-year-old Josh Fry of West Virginia described his preference for John McCain over Barack Obama. His feelings aren't racist, he explained. He would just be more comfortable with "someone who is a full-blooded American as president."

... Full-bloodedness is an old coin that's gaining currency in the new American realm. Meaning: Politics may no longer be so much about race and gender as about heritage, core values, and made-in-America. Just as we once and still have a cultural divide in this country, we now have a patriot divide.

Who "gets" America? And who doesn't?

... It's about blood equity, heritage and commitment to hard-won American values. And roots.

Some run deeper than others and therein lies the truth of Josh Fry's political sense. In a country that is rapidly changing demographically — and where new neighbors may have arrived last year, not last century — there is a very real sense that once-upon-a-time America is getting lost in the dash to diversity.
To Vance, America is about families. His own brawling, addicted, irresponsible, fucked-up family is a collection of true Americans. Harris's blended family isn't.

Thursday, July 25, 2024

THE RESPONSE TO A KEY PART OF KAMALA HARRIS'S STUMP SPEECH WILL BE VERY GENDERED

Democrats, including me, are cheering this portion of a speech Kamala Harris delivered in Milwaukee on Tuesday:


Before I was elected vice president, before I was elected United States senator, I was elected attorney general of the state of California, and I was a courtroom prosecutor before then. And in those roles, I took on perpetrators of all kinds: predators who abused women, fraudsters who ripped off consumers, cheaters who broke the rules for their own gain. So hear me when I say I know Donald Trump's type.
Obviously, Republican voters won't respond well to this. But I don't think negative responses to this passage (which I assume will become part of Harris's stump speech) will be exclusively ideological. For many people, I think it will be a measure of how they feel about men and women.

For many people, including people who didn't think of themselves as Republicans before they got on the Trump train, what's appealing about Trump is that he seems to be a powerful man who does what he pleases and gets away with it. We say that, as a businessman, he's cheated and defrauded people, and they respond that you have to be a little devious and crooked to get by in the cutthroat world of New York business. And as for his sex life, many people see him as a stud rather than a predator, and while they won't admit it to themselves, they thrill to the idea that he sexually imposes his will on women. And some of them will admit it to themselves:


Many men think they should be able to get away with financial chicanery because everybody does it. They think behavior toward women that you and I would see as predatory is simply normal. And some women agree with them.

To people like this, Harris will undoubtedly come off as a finger-wagging scold who doesn't want men to engage in perfectly healthy behavior. I think some normally Democratic men will fall into this category as well, though I hope it won't be a large number.

On the other hand, there could be a number of Republican women who know what bad men are like, and who'll appreciate what Harris says.

Harris isn't leading in the polls, though she's scrambling the race. She's doing much better with young voters -- her lead over Trump is 20%, according to a new Axios poll, compared to a 6% Biden lead in Axios's last youth poll. And she's doing better with union voters in swing states, according to a new Emerson poll.

But attitudes about bad men and prosecutorial women might affect the votes of some Americans who are normally reliable Democrats or Republicans. Trump was already making inroads among men of color; I wonder what the effect of Harris's candidacy will be on the white male vote. On the other hand, I think Harris could impress some normally Republican women with talk like this. I certainly hope so.

Wednesday, July 24, 2024

THEY'RE GATHERING EXCUSES FOR A TRUMP LOSS, AND THEY'LL DEPLOY THEM UNTIL JANUARY 6


Okay, here we go:


Ana Paulina Luna is a sitting congresswoman, albeit one who posed this way the year of her first (unsuccessful) House run:


Another Republican member of Congress, Eli Crane, wonders about a second shooter and claims to have heard reports that, as one conspiracy-minded site puts it, the home of gunman Thomas Crooks "was scrubbed, cleaned and even silverware removed, prior to the investigative units arriving."

These are some of the less "respectable" Republicans in Congress. But if right-wingers will never find what they'd love to find -- a Democratic/"Deep State" conspiracy to assassinate Trump -- they can at least count on crackpots in their party planting the idea of an assassination conspiracy in the minds of many GOP voters.

But you don't need to believe that there was more than one gunman, or that Crooks had a government "handler," to say what M.D. Kittle of The Federalist says in response to reports that the Secret Service would like Donald Trump to limit himself to indoor rallies:
As The Washington Post first reported Tuesday evening, the U.S. Secret Service is “encouraging” the Trump campaign to halt the large-scale events his supporters have grown accustomed to....

Shutting down the outdoor events would smack of election interference, a way to stymie a successful means of campaigning.
You just need to believe that the Secret Service was incompetent, and now the Democrats and "Deep State" have decided not to let a crisis go to waste, to use a Rahm Emanuel phrase that Republicans love to throw back in Democrats' faces.

All of this will come into play if Kamala Harris wins the presidential election in November.

We know Republicans will say the election is rigged. But not all of them will say that undocumented immigrants voted and fake ballots were fed into the drop-off boxes and ballot readers. Recall that after the 2020 election, there was the crazy theory of election fraud -- the things Rudy Giuliani and Sidney Powell said -- and the "polite" theory, which, after 2020, was advanced by commentators such as Mollie Hemingway in her book Rigged: How the Media, Big Tech, and the Democrats Seized Our Elections. From the publisher's description of the book:
Big Tech, wielding unprecedented powers, vaporized dissent and erased damning reports about the Biden family's corruption. And Democratic operatives, exploiting a public health crisis, shamelessly manipulated the voting process itself. Silenced and subjected, the American people lost their faith in the system.
Republicans genuinely believe that the Hunter Biden story, if fully aired before Election Day 2020, would have thrown the election to Trump, and that accommodations for (understandably) COVID-fearful voters tipped the election to Joe Biden. But they didn't really get the "polite" stolen-election theory out there until it was too late. (Hemingway's book was published in October 2021.) This time, they'll want the "polite" version and the crackpot version out there simultaneously, while they still have time to overturn the election results.

So if Harris wins, they'll argue that discouraging Trump from holding outdoor rallies made a massive difference in the final vote, whether or not there was a Vast Liberal Conspiracy to shoot Trump in the first place. This will be one of many arguments they'll make, and it all might be enough to persude Trumpified election officials to refuse to certified a Harris victory.

I agree that the Secret Service ought to be able to protect Trump at an outdoor rally, but I don't understand why not having the option to do outdoor rallies would make any difference in his vote totals -- rally attendees are invariably superfans already, as are the people who watch the rallies on TV and online, and how many attendees or viewers care about the nature of the venues?

As for the "Democrats shot Trump" theory, let's ignore the fact that Democrats aren't psychopaths and ask why it would be to their advantage to do that. After the failed assassination attempt, the media was ready to declare Trump a demigod, a tough-as-nails American hero, which was entirely predictable. The shooting hasn't massively improved his standing in the polls, mostly because he's the same jerk he's always been, but it could have if he'd maintained a posture of humility. And if Trump had died? There would have been a huge outpouring of sympathy for the GOP, and the replacement candidate might well have been Nikki Haley, who led Biden by 9 in a March New York Times poll, and by 16 in a February poll from Marquette. Why would Democrats want that?

In the next few months, Republicans will describe everything they possibly can as election interference. Let's hope the guardrails hold.

Tuesday, July 23, 2024

THE BROS THINK WE NEED THEIR HELP TO UNDERSTAND WHAT WE WANT

Many pundits are sad today because the Democratic Party won't have a mini-primary to choose Joe Biden's replacement on the presidential ticket. But how do Democrats feel? Morning Consult has done some polling:
A Morning Consult survey conducted after President Joe Biden ended his re-election campaign found that 65% of Democratic voters support Harris to lead the party’s ticket, more than double the level of support she had in a hypothetical look at the same question late last month following the first presidential debate.
As has Quinnipiac:
Democrats and Democratic leaning voters were given a list of 10 names of possible Democratic candidates for president instead of Joe Biden and asked who they would most like to see win the Democratic nomination for president.

Vice President Kamala Harris tops the list with 45 percent support, California Governor Gavin Newsom receives 12 percent support, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg receives 11 percent support, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer receives 7 percent support, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear each receive 4 percent support, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly receives 3 percent support, and Maryland Governor Wes Moore, Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker, and Colorado Governor Jared Polis each receive 1 percent support.
Those are blowout numbers, as is this:
Vice President Kamala Harris raised $81 million in the first 24 hours since announcing her bid for president, her campaign said, a record-breaking showing as Democrats welcomed her candidacy with one of the greatest gushers of cash of all time.
See also this:
Future Forward, the flagship super PAC blessed by President JOE BIDEN, received $150 million in new commitments from major Democratic donors in the 24 hours since the president announced he would step aside from the race, Elena Schneider reports.

The fundraising boon ... gives VP KAMALA HARRIS, Biden’s endorsed successor, an enormous boost as the Democratic Party reorients to a new nominee.
Sounds as if Democrats are very satisfied with Harris as the candidate. And that should be no surprise. Go to FiveThirtyEight's collection of 2024 Democratic primary polls. When you get to the bottom of the list, keep clicking "Show more polls." Long before Biden dropped out, in every national poll that asked respondents about a field without Joe Biden, Kamala Harris won, usually by double digits. When Harris's lead was only in single digits, it was because her closest rival was Michelle Obama, who has made it clear she'll never run for office.

Here are three typical polls, all posted on one day late last month (click to enlarge):


Survey USA: Harris by 27 over a field including Newsom, Buttigieg, Whitmer, Shapiro, and Wes Moore. Morning Consult: Harris by 10 over a field including Newsom, Buttigieg, Whitmer, Beshear, Cooper, Pritzker, and Moore. Data for Progress: Harris by 21 over a field including Newsom, Buttigieg, Whitmer, Pritzker, Shapiro, Cory Booker, and Amy Klobuchar.

In a field without Biden, Kamala Harris is the Democrats' consensus choice. Kamala Harris has always been the Democrats' consensus choice.

But bros like Ezra Klein aren't satisfied. They still think we Democrats don't know what we want, and need to have a bro-devised process to help focus our tiny minds:
I think there’s a middle path here that Democrats should consider. None of the top-tier candidates are going to challenge Harris for the nomination. But what about some second- or third-tier candidates? Let a few up-and-comers make their case against Donald Trump. Let’s see some CNN town halls, some multicandidate forums. Nobody is going to go negative on each other here. Give the country a reason to watch a lineup of young Democrats, most of all Harris, make their cases against Trump day after day for the next few weeks.

Think of it not as a contest. Think of it as an exhibition. Maybe the people who’ve endorsed Harris can participate, too. She’s going to need a vice president. So maybe Gretchen Whitmer and Shapiro and Kelly and Beshear should be up there, too.... Maybe a little strategic ambiguity about what these candidate forums and voter town halls are would be good.
Harris vs. "some second- or third-tier candidates"? You mean the way Joe Biden ran against Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson? We all derived a great deal of civic nourishment from that process, didn't we?

And what does Klein mean when he writes, "Think of it not as a contest. Think of it as an exhibition," and then "Maybe a little strategic ambiguity about what these candidate forums and voter town halls are would be good"? Beyond the obvious (We can't allow you simple folk to know what your big-brained betters are doing), is Klein arguing that this will be described as an exhibition but will actually be a contest, because donors who want another candidate will urge writers like Klein to magnify any Harris slip-ups and promote a donor-friendly alternative?

Klein goes on to say nice things about Harris, and says she'd almost certainly emerge from his process as the nominee. (Though you never know -- he writes, "If she really isn’t up to it, [Democrats] need to know that now.") He describes this as good publicity for the party (though I'd remind him that a few excellent speeches by the presumptive nominee would also be good for the party, especially if other party stars show up in support of her).

But it's clear that if you're happy about the party's consolidation around Harris, Ezra Klein thinks you're uninformed and need educating. I worry that patronizing bros like this -- and not just the ones in the media -- will choose not to vote for Harris, 'cuz she's a girl and a bunch of girls and girlymen decided to make her the nominee by acclamation, without contests and brackets and March Madness and a Final Four. We need to outvote Republicans, but we may also need to outvote America's Ezra Kleins.

Monday, July 22, 2024

THIS IS GOOD, AND IT'S BEING DONE RIGHT

In the comments to the previous post, I'm seeing some dismay about what just happened. I'm normally the doom-and-gloom guy, but I'm optimistic.

One reason I'm optimistic is that the Democratic response to Joe Biden's withdrawal from the race is exactly what I've wanted from the party for the past three and a half weeks. Democrats suddenly seem decisive. They seem ready to end the drama immediately. I'm heartened that so many Democrats rapidly coalesced around Kamala Harris after Biden's endorsement, everyone from Bill and Hillary Clinton to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to all fifty state party chairs. (Shame on Barack Obama for holding out, but his donor-fueled wish for an open contest is out of step with the majority of the party, and won't be relevant.) This is a party that seems ready to move forward, after weeks of spinning its wheels. I'm not surprised that Biden dropped out, but I'm pleasantly surprised that Democrats knew how to manage the transition.

And it's clear to me that this is good because so many Democratic voters are suddenly hopeful. It's being reported that the Harris campaign received $70 million in small-dollar donations as of 1:00 A.M. This excitement could be contagious. It could spread to swing voters. The polls mostly say that Harris does no better against Donald Trump than Biden does, but that could change, at least momentarily, because of this excitement. After that, Harris will have to grind out a win. But Biden seemed to have no potential for improvement -- voters knew him and Trump, and nothing seemed to change their opinions of either. But while there's absolutely a chance that voters will sour on Harris after this moment, she has the potential to build on her base of support, in a way that Biden couldn't.

It's been impossible for me to ignore the frustration of some voters who are either anti-Trump or gettable, like the guy I saw on the Upper West Side of Manhattan a week or so ago who was wearing an ANYONE UNDER 80 / 2024 T-shirt. (Yes, I know -- Trump is barely under eighty. But I assume anyone who wears this shirt doesn't know that.)

Then there's Lauren Hough, the author of the memoir Leaving Isn't the Hardest Thing. She's a military veteran, a lesbian, a former bartender, bouncer, and cable installer, a victim of childhood sexual abuse. She's a writer now, but she's not highly educated or credentialed. She lives in Austin and hangs out with musicians and barflies, not elitists. She's in her forties. She loathes Trump. This was her take a couple of days ago:


I see a lot of younger people who just can't believe Democrats were going to go trhrough with a Biden candidacy. Rightly or wrongly, they saw Biden as self-evidently unable to do the job. Here's Kat Abughazaleh, a twentysomething former Media Matters writer who makes anti-Fox, anti-GOP, and anti-Religious Right videos. She posted this just after the June 27 debate:


Like many people who watched last night's debate, I have one question for Democrats: What the hell do you think you're doing? Now, before anyone attacks me for helping Trump or sabotaging the Democrats, I'd like to say I'm making this video because I want the Democrats to win. I care a lot more about that than preserving tradition. At some point, liberal politicos decided that seniority and decorum matter more than actually winning races and passing bills. We as voters deserve better. And it's not like the DNC is some helpless baby. They could have had an actual primary with actual candidates. And they should have. A lot of us voted for Joe Biden expecting him to be a one-term president. But then he changed his mind. So we all have to deal with the consequences to prop up the ego of an 80-year-old man.
This is harsh, but it's a perspective shared by many people under the age of fifty -- and I mean people who hate Trump and want him gone forever. Biden and the rest of the Democratic Party were at risk of losing these voters this year. They weren't winning them back. And now these voters are gettable again.

I don't share the perspective of some Democrats I've encountered on social media who seem to think the election is already won. Harris is not an Obama-level political talent. America is sexist and racist. Republicans and the Republican-dominated courts could make trouble for Democrats. (I don't believe the courts will knock her off the ballot -- they know that making it impossible for a major party's candidate to run would be taking us into Putin territory, and I think they still want to seem as if they're operating withing the guardrails. On the other hand, I could imagine the courts ruling that Harris can't use money collected by the Biden-Harris campaign, even though her right to use that money seems to be a matter of settle campaign finance law.) Nevertheless, I feel hopeful. Millions of voters hated the choice they had, and now one party has responded to that frustration. That should count for a lot.

Sunday, July 21, 2024

IF WE HAVE TO TALK ABOUT WEST WING FANTASIES, HERE'S MINE (with a Biden-withdrawal postscript)

The editors of the New York Times opinion section are undoubtedly aware that many Democrats regard the various replace-Joe-Biden scenarios as "West Wing fantasies," so they decided to troll these Democrats by commissioning Aaron Sorkin to devise a resolution for the party's current crisis, in the manner of the West Wing scripts he used to write. You can probably guess what Sorkin proposes:
... there’s something the Democrats can do that would not just put a lump in people’s throats with its appeal to stop-Donald-Trump-at-all-costs unity, but with its originality and sense of sacrifice. So here’s my pitch to the writers’ room: The Democratic Party should pick a Republican.

At their convention next month, the Democrats should nominate Mitt Romney.
Of course.

Sorkin knows that Romney doesn't support any of the policies that matter most to Democratic voters:
Does Mr. Romney support abortion rights? No. Does he want to aggressively raise the minimum wage, bolster public education, strengthen unions, expand transgender rights and enact progressive tax reform? Probably not.
Would Aaron Sorkin personally benefit from any of these policies? Of course not. So he doesn't care, and, because he's a narcissist like most successful people in this society, he thinks rank-and-file voters don't care about anything he doesn't care about.

Sorkin writes:
But is [Romney] a cartoon thug who did nothing but watch TV while the mob he assembled beat and used Tasers on police officers? No. The choice is between Donald Trump and not-Trump, and the not-Trump candidate needs only one qualification: to win enough votes from a cross section of Americans to close off the former president’s Electoral College path back to power.
Democrats have overperformed in off-year elections since the Dobbs decision, Democrats running in close Senate races are outpolling their Republican opponents, Democrats -- as Sorkin himself notes later in the piece -- have won the popular vote in seven of the past eight presidential elections, and yet his idea of a candidate who can "win enough votes from a cross section of Americans" is, naturally, a Republican. And not only a Republican, but a Republican who's run for president twice and lost both times.

Which is not to say that Republicans are entirely useless. I'll get grief for this from "burn the lifeboats" Democrats, but let me present you with my best-received post at Bluesky:

I know I'm supposed to hate the Never Trumpers for their past sins, but people like Rick Wilson, Michael Steele, and now David Frum think Democrats could win this race. Imagine if a few actual Democratic operatives and pundits felt that way. (Gift link.) www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...

[image or embed]

— Steve M. (@stevemnomoremister.bsky.social) Jul 19, 2024 at 1:35 PM

My West Wing fantasy isn't that Democrats pick a Republican candidate -- it's Democrats hiring some Republican operatives. Not for the policies, or the morally dubious tactics -- it's clear that Democrats need an infusion of people who don't hate themselves. When things go wrong in the GOP, Republicans don't decide that the public hates their party, and they certainly don't go running to every A-list reporter they know and say, "Wow, our party really blows, doesn't it?" They don't incessantly apologize for who they are. They don't engage in circular firing squads.

In my West Wing fantasy -- I hope this is gee-whizzy enough for Aaron Sorkin -- the Democratic presidential campaign hires a young operative who's concealing the fact that much of her past experience was working for Republicans. When her background is discovered, her bosses decide to fire her. Then she says something like this:
I know that what I did was completely unprofessional, but I just want to say one thing:

You need people like me.

Do you know what I learned when I was working for the other party? I learned that you don't win if you hate the people on your own side. I learned that when things are going right, you go on offense, and when things are going wrong, you go on offense. Here's what I never learned: I never learned that it was a good idea to tell a high-level reporter that your candidate is bad. I never learned that it was a good idea to criticize your own party's policies. I never learned those things, and because Republicans don't do those things, they win elections they shouldn't win. They win even though most Americans think they're wrong on abortion and wrong on guns and wrong on how much you should tax rich people. They won in 2016 with an ignorant, congenitally lying criminal and sex addict at the top of the ticket.

You can win with a flawed candidate if your people just shut the hell up and all row in the same direction. That's a lesson this party needs to learn.
That's my fantasy. Sadly, I think Democrats are more likely to actually put a Republican at the top of the ticket than they are to learn -- from disaffected Republicans or, even better, from people on their own side -- that they should not criticize their party publicly, should not undermine their nominee publicly, and should resolve internal fights swiftly and privately while focusing on promoting Democratic policies and criticizing Republican extremism. Couldn't there be a Democratic Party like this? Or is that just a fantasy?

*****

POSTSCRIPT: Well, this one was overtaken by events almost immediately -- President Biden has withdrawn from the race (but won't resign as president -- and he shouldn't). He subsequently endorsed Kamala Harris as the replacement candidate.

Republicans would know what to do in this situation: They'd rally around Harris and talk her up as an amazing candidate. Will Democrats do that? Or will some demand an open convention, while others grumble about whatever process is used to make the transition? I assume the latter, sadly. We'll see.

Saturday, July 20, 2024

DEMOCRATS, STICK TOGETHER FOR ONCE AND TELL "BIDEN MUST RESIGN" REPUBLICANS TO STFU

I'm pleased to see the CNN headline "Democratic Consensus Solidifies Around Harris, Should Biden Step Aside" -- if President Biden does end his campaign, Democrats should finally, finally unify around a single alternative and get back to the critically necessary work of reminding voters what a horrorshow a Donald Trump presidency would be.

But here's a potential hitch, though it will be one only if Democrats allow it to be:
As Democrats clash over whether President Biden can win in November, Republicans are saying dropping his bid is not enough — that Biden is mentally unfit to run the country another six months.

... Republicans are laying the groundwork to pressure him to resign from office.

"Everyone calling on Joe Biden to *stop running* without also calling on him to resign the presidency is engaged in an absurd level of cynicism," Trump's running mate Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) posted on Saturday.
Vance added:


This is being echoed by useful idiots such as Brian Stelter and the usually astute Daniel Drezner.

If Biden withdraws from the race, Democrats need to unite around the message that he is highly capable of serving as president for the next six months. And they should use this as an opportunity to call Republicans on their bad-faith arguments.

Earlier this month, I told you why Biden shouldn't resign: If Harris were to become president this year as well as the Democratic presidential candidate, she would need to choose not only a running mate (a choice that's entirely up to her and her party), but also a vice president to serve the last few months of the term. It could be the same person, but it doesn't have to be. Republicans will pounce on the replacement-VP choice as an opportunity to own Harris and the libs. They'll either refuse to approve her choice or hold star-chamber hearings, probably chaired by a sociopathic extremist like Jim Jordan, in which literally anyone she's chosen will be portrayed as worse for America than Osama bin Laden. Both houses of Congress need to approve the replacement VP. Every Republican in the GOP-controlled House will vote no, just to make Harris look weak, at a time when she's fighting to be a credible presidential candidate.

And then there'll be no vice president in the event Harris wins the presidential election, which means no vice president (acting as president of the Senate) to count the electoral votes on January 6, 2025. If it's a Democratic victory, it's likely to be a close one, and it will be fiercely disputed by the GOP. Who will act as president of the Senate if there's no VP? The new Senate will have been sworn in by then -- that happens on January 3, before the electoral vote count, and seventeen days before the president is inaugurated. If Republicans have the majority in the new Senate, they'll designate the president pro tem -- presumably the senior-most Republican, Chuck Grassley -- to preside. Will he ratify a Democratic victory that's being actively disputed by Republicans? Of course he won't.

That's why Biden shouldn't resign. Now, here's how Democrats should respond to arguments for his resignation.

They should insist that Biden has the physical capacity, the mental astuteness, and the moral judgment to be president for the remainder of his term. (They should absolutely refer to moral judgment -- why not use this as an opportunity to go on offense against Trump?) If they want to concede that Biden sometimes has difficulty summoning up words, they should say that nevertheless he's crystal clear on the issues he's dealing with.

They can argue that he recognizes that he might not have the energy to swerve as president and run for reelection, which are two full-time jobs, so he's making the job of president a priority. And they can argue that Vance, who's not even forty, has no understanding of the wisdom that comes from experience. Vance has never worked long enough to develop expertise at anything in his life -- he's gone from the military to law school to venture capital to a vague nonprofit to a career in politics, and now he thinks he can tell someone who's devoted decades to serving this country that he knows who has the ability to be president. Who does he think he is?

Democrats don't need to take my advice, but they should close ranks around Biden and insist that he has no reason to leave office. And they should remind the public of what Republicans did to Merrick Garland in 2016, and say that Republicans want the opportunity to do the same thing to Kamala Harris when she chooses a vice president to serve oyut the term. For once, Democrats should call Republicans act on their habitual bad faith. They should say that Republicans are certain to act in a nakedly politcal way because they'd rather deal Democrats a defeat than be civic-minded.

Democrats probably won't do this, of course. They don't play hardball this way. But I can dream.

Friday, July 19, 2024

HE MOVED ON COREY COMPERATORE'S UNIFORM LIKE A BITCH

I watched only portions of Donald Trump's speech last night. According to the stories I'm reading, the second part of the speech was was nasty and boring -- I caught some of that, and it was -- but the first part was moving, healing, and unifying.
The "new" Donald Trump soothed and silenced the nation for 28 minutes last night. Then the old Trump returned and bellowed, barked and bored America for 64 minutes more.
But that supposedly soothing portion of the speech climaxed -- if that's the right word -- with the bloody-shirt moment when the uniform of Casey Comperatore, the firefighter who was killed in the attempted assassination of Trump, was displayed onstage. First Trump pointed to it as if we were in the 1980s again and he was showing off the scale model of a proposed building project.


Then he shuffled over and gave Comperatore's helmet a kiss, after which he stood over the uniform and pointed at it again, as if to say, "See this? This is mine."



As a nation, we've just accepted the fact that Trump literally hugs and kisses flags -- I know that liberals find this repellent, but the rest of the culture seems to just shrug and say, "Well, he's just displaying his patriotism." It's weird, and Trump kissing the helmet last night was weird. More people need to say that.

And we should tie it to what was, if only briefly, the lowest moment in Trump's political career: the release of the Access Hollywood tape.
I moved on her like a bitch....

You know I'm automatically attracted to beautiful... I just start kissing them. It's like a magnet. Just kiss. I don't even wait. And when you're a star they let you do it. You can do anything.
That's what he's doing to the flags. That's what he did to the uniform. That's what he did to E. Jean Carroll. Sex and possessiveness. And then he brags. And America just lets him do it.

Thursday, July 18, 2024

YOU'RE NOT SUPERMAN IF YOU SURVIVE BEING GRAZED ON THE EAR

I don't think the events of recent weeks -- President Biden's bad debate, the assassination attempt on Donald Trump, the president's COVID diagnosis -- were fatal blows for Democrats. Prior to these events, I thought Biden was trailing in the polls, and I hoped for a much better few weeks than we've had, because I thought he needed a boost to win. But the polls don't show Biden's numbers significantly worsening.

What I think might be dooming Democrats is the reaction to these events -- first, the weeks-long, very public undermining of Biden (and, to a lesser extent, Vice President Harris) by fellow Democrats and Democratic donors, and now the media's pro-Trump mythmaking. One example is CNN's Van Jones saying this:
But today is a terrible day. If you pull back and look at this thing – strength versus weakness – a bullet couldn’t stop Trump, a virus just stopped Biden.
Jones's words are echoed by Shane Goldmacher and Lisa Lerer in The New York Times:
An extraordinary three weeks in American politics took another surprise turn, after the White House announced on Wednesday that Mr. Biden had contracted Covid, forcing the president into physical isolation just as his presidential candidacy hung in the balance....

For a fleeting few hours on Wednesday, the two presidents presented starkly dueling images that fed into the very story line Republicans were unspooling at their convention — that Mr. Trump was strong and Mr. Biden was weak. One was flying to his beach house on Air Force One to enter seclusion as his party fractured around him; the other was welcomed as a wounded hero by thousands of cheering supporters, some of whom bandaged their ears in a show of solidarity.
Here's a simple statement of fact: Most people would have survived Trump's wound. Joe Biden would have survived Trump's wound. If Biden had experienced that kind of graze wound, he would have been walking around the next day with a bandage on his ear. (And the Republicans who are treating Trump's bandage as if it's a holy talisman would be mocking Biden's bandage. We all remember how they questioned the severity of the wounds that won John Kerry three Purple Hearts by wearing "Purple Heart Band-Aids" at the 2004 Republican convention. The wound that won Kerry his first Purple Heart was minor, but the wounds that led to his second and third Purple Hearts were much more significant than the one Trump suffered.)

And Biden is very likely to survive COVID. He disembarked from Air Force One unaided. We don't know how Trump would respond to COVID now, though we know he barely survived his 2020 bout. I don't recall anyone in the media arguing in 2020 that Trump's COVID was a metaphor for his weakness.

Many liberals believe that the mainstream media valorizes Trump because media owners, being wealthy, want him to win. I think that's a factor -- but I think many reporters, especially male reporters, are responding to something more visceral in Trump's stagecraft and showmanship. He carries himself like a Big Man on Campus. He's the alpha jock, and betas bend to his will. I think many male reporters were high school nerds who internalized hatred of themselves and admiration of big dumb jocks like Trump.

Trump isn't a smart man, but he knows how to manipulate people who thrill to the sight of an alpha beating his chest. When he got home from the hospital after being treated for COVID, he went straight to a balcony and melodramatically removed his mask. A few seconds after the shooting, he pumped his fist and repeatedly said, "Fight! Fight!" (no link needed, obviously -- we've all seen this way too often). We don't have any evidence that a broad cross-section of voters respond to this -- all Republicans seem to, as do some men who are outside the GOP's usual base. On the other hand, it's repellent to people who hate macho posturing.

But there don't seem to be very many haters of macho posturing in the mainstream media. Mainstream reporters see the world in terms of alphas and betas. Democrats were fortunate in 1992 and 2008 to pick nominees who could satisfy this media craving. But Republicans are satisfying it now.

Wednesday, July 17, 2024

THE NEW YORK TIMES INVENTS A GOP CRISIS SO IT CAN CREDIT TRUMP WITH ENDING IT

Lead story at the New York Times website right now:
For eight chaotic years, Republicans battled in public and private, fighting over Donald J. Trump’s polarizing personality, his divisive policies and his history of electoral defeats through lawsuits and leadership battles, felony convictions and suburban defections.

Yet even before a single balloon has dropped at their national convention this week, Republicans have united — seemingly without reservation — behind the man and his message.
Republicans have been fighting one another over Trump for eight years? Seriously?

Lisa Lerer and Rebecca Davis O’Brien, the authors of this piece, aren't the only people writing for the Times today who think there are divisions within the GOP. In a naive Times op-ed, Chris Christie asks whether Trump can "meet the moment" with a message of unity and healing. Christie is skeptical, which is to his credit, but one way he expresses that skepticism is by criticizing Trump choice of J.D. Vance as a running mate, a pick that "doubles down on the portion of the party already completely devoted to him rather than reaches out to the broader party and beyond."

But there is no "broader party." I know Christie kept telling us during the runup to the Republican primaries that he was going to get Trump into a debate and flatten him with the mighty power of his rhetoric, after which the party's voters would break free of Trump's spell. But he never got the chance, he had no Plan B, and even if Trump had deigned to debate him, he just would have called Christie fat and doubled his lead over him in the polls.

Of the current completely predictable moment of unity, Lerer and O'Brien write:
It is a party-wide evolution that would have been difficult to envision ... as recently as this spring, when the party was recovering from a bruising primary contest and the serial humiliations of a dysfunctional House majority that struggled to select its own leadership. Then, Mr. Trump was a liability and not the party’s great unifier.
But it wasn't a bruising primary contest. The party's top bruiser, Donald Trump, didn't even debate. Then he won contest after contest effortlessly. Sure, a segment of the primary electorate voted against him, but as I noted during the primaries, many of those anti-Trump primary voters were people who didn't vote for Trump in the 2020 general election. And while there may have been leadership battles in the House, no anti-Trump wing ever emerged.

There is no such wing. The anti-Trumpers have been purged. Whatever disagreements Republicans have, they have been united for years on two things: the belief that Democrats and liberals are an existential threat to all that is good and decent, and the willingness to rally around Trump.

Lerer and O'Brien write:
Speaker after speaker on Tuesday bent their knees, offering tribute to a man who had once insulted them, belittled them and, eventually, defeated them.
This is one of the oldest rituals in Trumpdom. The Lindsey Graham-ing of onetime doubters is now so routine, and so reliably successful, that Trump felt safe picking a former apostate as his running mate. Trump knows he can turn every GOP critics into either an exile or a supplicant for life.

We're frequently told that many Republicans secretly despise Trump. But they're Republicans, not Democrats, so they won't lower their odds of winning by fighting with one another during a campaign. Even the ones who don't have a bone-deep loyalty to Trump have a strong loyalty to their own party. Democrats could learn something from them.

Tuesday, July 16, 2024

A BOOTLICKER CHOOSES A BOOTLICKER

New York magazine has a piece on Donald Trump's choice of J.D. Vance as a running mate titled "The Billioniaire and the Bootlicker." You can question whether Trump is a billionaire (Forbes still thinks he is), but there's no question that Vance is a bootlicker.

And not just of Trump -- Vance is a serial bootlicker. In 2016, when he wrote all those anti-Trump tweets, he undoubtedly thought he was ingratiating himself with the wing of the Republican Party that would emerge triumphant from the 2016 presidential election, because surely Trump couldn't win. That was just before Vance's move back to Ohio, which, to some of us, was an obvious sign that he was planning to run for office. By 2021, when he was on the verge of a Senate run, he went to Mar-a-Lago and kissed Trump's ring. And prior to all of this, he ingratiated himself with crackpot tech billionaire Peter Thiel, who'd go on to put massive amounts of money into his campaign. Before that, he insinuated himself into the Yale Law circle dominated by the politically connected Amy Chua and Jed Rubenfeld. If a high-powered person's boots need licking anywhere, Vance is your guy.

But the New York magazine headline implies that Trump is a pure alpha for whom bootlicking goes only one way. That's not really true. Here's a Politico headline from last month:
Trump keeps flip-flopping his policy positions after meeting with rich people
Examples:
Donald Trump privately hinted at a shift in immigration policy at a Business Roundtable meeting last week. He told the group “we need brilliant people” in this country, according to one of the attendees, who was granted anonymity to describe a private meeting. And when he talked about finding ways to keep American-educated talent at home, some top CEOs, like Apple’s Tim Cook, were seen nodding their heads.

The public move came a week later: On “The All-In Podcast” on Thursday, Trump said foreign nationals who graduate from U.S. colleges and universities should “automatically” be given a green card upon graduation.

... Trump’s pivot on immigration followed his reversal on TikTok, embracing an app he once tried to ban, and his shift on cryptocurrency.

... there is ... plainly a pattern of Trump aligning his political stances with the views of wealthy donors and business interests.
Trump chose Elon Musk's preferred vice presidential candidate, and what do you know:
Elon Musk has said he is planning to pledge about $45 million a month to a newly formed super PAC backing former President Donald Trump’s White House bid, The Wall Street Journal reported Monday....
Trump is even licking the boots of an opposition candidate:


What does Trump want? Kennedy's votes, obviously -- and possibly also Kennedy's running mate's money.

Even before the 2024 race started, Trump liked licking dictators' boots, as Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un know. Trump even seems to like licking the boots of the "fake news" media. It's hard to read about Trump's 2020 discussion of COVID with Bob Woodward, for instance, without concluding that the most powerful man in the world was trying to impress the aging, past-his-prime journalist. See also Trump and Maggie Haberman.

So Trump was pleased when J.D. Vance prostrated himself before him. But in a way, they're two of a kind.