THE NEW YORK TIMES CONTINUES TELLING ITS READERS A FAIRYTALE ABOUT NIKKI HALEY

As I've told you a couple of times, Axios reported in January that Joe Biden's campaign "has internal data indicating that most of the undecided voters Biden is targeting don't think Trump will be the Republican nominee because they haven't tuned into an election that's more than nine months away." I've argued that these voters might not believe Trump will be the nominee because the press, desperate for a horserace, is lying about the possibility that he can be defeated in the primaries. The New York Times is doing it again:

Haley Says She Is Going the Distance Against Trump. Here’s Her Plan.

That's the headline. The subhead acknowledges that Haley can't really pull this off ("The former South Carolina governor is expected to lose big in her home state. Beyond that, it’s an even steeper climb"), but the text of the story conveys the impression that, actually, her plan is well conceived:

The Haley campaign has announced teams of elected officials, business leaders and prominent community members to help lead their efforts in Alaska, California, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Utah and Washington. Her “National Women for Nikki Coalition,” which counts chapters in all 50 states and Puerto Rico, has kicked into full gear, with a mission to court suburban women turned off by Mr. Trump.

On the day after the South Carolina primary, regardless of the outcome, Ms. Haley has said she will head to Michigan, which holds its own contest Feb. 27. From there, she has plans to crisscross the country ahead of Super Tuesday, the largest single day of the primary season, and the last real chance she will have to prove she can change the course of the nomination. The expected stops include Colorado, Minnesota, Utah and Virginia. Ms. Haley is betting her candidacy on courting independents and new Republicans in Michigan and in 11 Super Tuesday states where Republican primaries are not limited to voters affiliated with her own party....

The Times says the plan seems futile, but it's presented to us as if it isn't futile -- and surely there's a chance if billionaires think there is:

In interviews, some of Ms. Haley’s high-dollar donors in Texas and California echoed her focus on Mr. Trump’s and President Biden’s advanced ages, and cited Mr. Trump’s legal cases as signs that anything remains possible in the race. Mr. Trump spent Thursday in a Manhattan courtroom on criminal charges stemming from a hush-money payment to a porn star in 2016. A New York judge on Friday ordered him to pay a penalty of nearly $355 million plus interest after finding him liable for conspiring to manipulate his net worth.

“A lot can happen in politics and in our legal system,” said Timothy Draper, a Silicon Valley entrepreneur and Haley donor. “And the American people usually come to their senses when they come to the polls.”

(They do? Really?)

A fact that's never mentioned in this story -- because I appear to be the only political commentator in America who's noticed it -- is that Haley isn't very popular among Republicans, undoubtedly because Donald Trump has all but ordered his followers to hate her. I've talked about this before, but her numbers just get worse and worse. Here are the stats, according to FiveThirtyEight:

If she stays in the race through Super Tuesday, her unfavorables among Republicans will be higher than her favorables. She'll be headed to Chris Christie territory. She'll be at risk of becoming this year's Jeb Bush.

And it certainly won't help her with Republicans that The Washington Post is now describing her as a member of "the resistance":

As the former South Carolina governor has sharpened her rhetoric against Trump, she has emerged — partly purposefully, partly unintentionally — as a key voice in the anti-Trump resistance, articulating a forceful case against four more years of the former president....

The heightened anti-Trump tone has prompted comparisons between Haley and Liz Cheney....

This is going to be catnip for Trump. I'm sure his staff has already printed out the Post article for him, with the key passages highlighted. I'm sure he'll be linking her to "the resistance" in campaign appearances. Among Republicans, this will drive his numbers up and hers down.

The Post story tells us:

The Haley campaign and allies ... argue what many Democrats privately concede: that Haley could prove a far more formidable general election candidate against Biden, and that Democrats prefer to run against Trump. Haley is performing slightly better against Biden than Trump is in a Washington Post average of recent polls.

In the Real Clear Polling average, Haley is beating Biden by 3.6 while Trump is beating Biden by 1.1 -- but her advantage in a general election is starting to vanish. In a recent NPR/PBS/Marist poll, Biden leads both Trump and Haley by 1; in a late-January Emerson poll, both Trump and Haley lead by 1. I assume this is because Haley gains moderates but loses Trump voters -- in the NPR poll, Trump gets 93% of the Republican vote, while Haley gets only 78%; Haley gets 12% of the Democratic vote, while Trump gets 6%.

If you're imagining that a beleaguered Trump might look at his court schedule, drop out of the race, and graciously endorse the woman he's been calling "Birdbrain" for several months, you're delusional -- that would be an acknowledgment of weakness, and Trump won't let that happen. We know from the Supreme Courts arguments that Trump won't be removed from ballots judicially. So why is the media continuing to report on Nikki Haley as a viable candidate?

Maybe you think she'll simply seize the nomination if Trump drops dead. I think subsequent nominating contests could look like the Nevada primary, in which Haley lost to "none of these candidates": Voters will pick the dead Trump over Haley wherever possible, in the hope that delegates at the convention will pick a suitably MAGA alternative.

If late-state primary voters can't do that, I think they'll find other ways to send a signal that Haley isn't accaptable to them. The next January 6 might be the Republican convention, and the insurrectionists might win this time. If they lose, the party risks losing many MAGA votes in November. That's why they're likely to be given whatever they want. That might be a good outcome for America -- I think Joe Biden could beat Donald Trump Jr. -- but it won't be a good return on investment for Nikki Haley's billionaire donors, or mainstream-media cheerleaders.