THEY MAY SAY "JESUS" A LOT, BUT THEY'RE STILL ELITES, SO GOP VOTERS DON'T CARE WHAT THEY THINK

How many stories have we read recently about Donald Trump's very risky decision to alienate the governor of Iowa and the head of the best-known Evangelical group in the state? There was this story, from The New York Times on July 11:

[Trump] lashed out at Iowa’s popular Republican governor, Kim Reynolds, and then his campaign informed one of the state’s politically influential evangelical leaders, Bob Vander Plaats, that the former president would skip a gathering of presidential candidates this week in Des Moines....

“He’s shown his penchant for self-destructive behavior, and it’s one of those things that I think voters notice,” said David Kochel, a longtime Republican operative from Iowa who has advised Ms. Reynolds.

There was this in The Washington Times on July 18:

A top evangelical leader in Iowa thinks voters are ready to “turn the page” from former President Donald Trump.

Bob Vander Plaats, president of The Family Leader, made the assessment after his group’s summit last week. The event brought in a number of top GOP contenders for the 2024 presidential nomination, though Mr. Trump was a no-show.

Mr. Vander Plaats, in a tweet Monday, said former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley “intrigued and impressed” and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy was “inspired and on message.”

He said Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis showed “command and validated his leadership bona fides.”

... Mr. Vander Plaats said the high point of last week’s event was Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds signing new abortion restrictions, while he pegged the “biggest loss” to Mr. Trump “as it becomes more clear ... people want to turn the page.”

The mere fact that Trump is alienating both Vander Plaats and Reynolds led to talk that Trump might be writing off Iowa. Marc Caputo of The Message wrote this:

An adviser for one of the other Republican campaigns speculated that Trump might intentionally be picking a fight with Reynolds and anyone he sees as DeSantis-adjacent to blunt the impact of their future endorsements or create an excuse in case he loses the state.

“Trump knows thinks things aren’t going to go his way in Iowa, so he’s laying groundwork for why his bid might not be successful in Iowa,” the adviser, who was not authorized to publicly weigh in on the race, told The Messenger.

So how are things going for Trump in Iowa after all this supposed self-sabotage? Let's look at the latest poll:

Trump leads by 30 points in a Fox Business survey of Iowa Republicans, as likely caucus-goers prioritize electability and see him as the one who can win in 2024.

Here are the numbers: 46% of likely GOP caucus-goers back Trump, putting him in a category all his own. The next tier is Ron DeSantis at 16% and Tim Scott at 11%.

Whoops -- so much for the narrative.

Back in 2016, FiveThirtyEight kept a running tally of elite endorsements in the Republican primaries. It assigned points for top endorsers: 1 point for each member of the U.S. House, 5 points for each senator, 10 points for each governor. The winner? Marco Rubio with 139 points. He was followed by Ted Cruz with 114 points and John Kasich with 48. Trump finished fourth, with 46.

These numbers, needless to say, didn't match the results of the primaries.

We understood what what happening back then: Trump -- because he was a TV star, and because he said racist things that weren't in code -- didn't need endorsements from Republican bigwigs. The voters liked him, and they rejected the party elites' preferences.

But somehow the press got fooled again this year. They thought voters cared what Vander Plaats and Reynolds think of Trump. That's clearly not the case.

Maybe when, inevitably, Vander Plaats and Reynolds endorse DeSantis (or maybe Tim Scott), it will be worth a percentage point or two in the final vote. But it won't be enough. It seems clear that Trump will win Iowa, on his way to winning the nomination. What seemed like self-sabotage wasn't.