MICHAEL LUTTIG'S DISPATCH FROM AN ELITIST BUBBLE

It's a common misconception that Pauline Kael, the New Yorker film critic, expressed shock after Richard Nixon's 1972 landslide victory -- nobody she knew had voted for Nixon, Kael is believed to have said, so how could he have won? What she actually said, in a speech to the Modern Language Association, was that she knew Nixon voters were real, though they were unfamiliar to her:

“I live in a rather special world,” Miss Kael said.... “I only know one person who voted for Nixon. Where they are I don't know. They're outside my ken. But sometimes when I'm in a theater I can feel them.”

In The New York Times today, anti-Trump Republican J. Michael Luttig sounds like the Pauline Kael of legend:

As only the Republicans can do, they are already turning this ignominious moment into an even more ignominious moment — and a self-immolating one at that — by rushing to crown [Donald] Trump their nominee before the primary season even begins. Building the Republican campaign around the newly indicted front-runner is a colossal political miscalculation, as comedic as it is tragic for the country. No assemblage of politicians except the Republicans would ever conceive of running for the American presidency by running against the Constitution and the rule of law. But that’s exactly what they’re planning....

There is no path to the White House for Republicans with Mr. Trump. He would need every single Republican and independent vote, and there are untold numbers of Republicans and independents who will never vote for him, if for no other perfectly legitimate reason than that he has corrupted America’s democracy and is now attempting to corrupt the country’s rule of law. No sane Democrat will vote for Mr. Trump — even over the aging Mr. Biden — when there are so many sane Republicans who will refuse to vote for Mr. Trump. This is all plain to see, which makes it all the more mystifying why more Republicans don’t see it.

Are there "many sane Republicans who will refuse to vote for Mr. Trump"? Polling suggests that there are very few. There are probably more Never Trump Republicans on the op-ed pages than in the public at large. But like the faux-Kael, Luttig thinks thinks the GOP voter base is the same as his Never Trump circle of friends.

Republican base voters are also like the Pauline Kael of legend. Nobody they know voted for Joe Biden. They think it's inconceivable that Biden really won 81 million votes in 2020. Of course they believe Trump will win in 2024 -- they believe he won in 2020. A new poll tells us that he's still their guy:

Former President Donald Trump has expanded his lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and the rest of the Republican presidential field since Trump’s latest indictment on federal criminal charges, according to a new national NBC News poll....

Fifty-one percent of national Republican primary voters pick the former president as their first choice in the race for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, followed by 22% who choose DeSantis, 7% who select former Vice President Mike Pence and 5% who want former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie....

Trump’s 29-point lead over DeSantis in a multi-candidate field is an increase from April’s NBC News poll, when 46% preferred Trump as their first choice versus 31% who picked DeSantis.

But is Luttig is right about the general election? Do swing voters care so much about the Constitution that voting for Trump is unthinkable? Well, not yet, according to that NBC poll:

Biden gets support from 49% of registered voters, while Trump gets 45%. Biden’s 4-point lead is within the poll’s margin of error.

Biden has had several decent polls this month, but in none of them is he leading Trump by more than 4. Remember, in 2020 his lead in the polling averages was 7.2, he won the popular vote by 4.5 -- and he barely won the Electoral College. So, yes, Trump is still quite electable -- maybe a third indictment or a guilty verdict will change that, but I wouldn't be too sure. (And if there's an acquittal or a hung jury...) Right now, in the Real Clear Politics average, Biden is beating Trump by just 0.1.

I don't believe swing voters choose candidates based on their fealty to the Constitution. Some might. Others might vote on abortion. But many of them are focused on inflation and crime (even if it's just crime they see on TV), as well as a general sense that the world has gone crazy, but wasn't crazy in some mistily remembered past, which Trump can conveniently pinpoint as the three years before COVID struck America.

If these voters think Trump is vigorous and Biden is too old, then sure, they'll vote for Trump. In Michael Luttig's bubble, swing voters choose candidates based on the proper functioning of government. In the real world, swing voters choose candidates based on vibes. So, yes, Trump is still very much in the race.