WHO CARES WHO WINS IOWA?

Ron DeSantis has been running for president for a couple of years already, but next week he'll finally make it official, according to news reports. Journalists and pundits who are desperate for a Republican horserace are telling us that we should expect DeSantis to run very strong in Iowa. Here's Marc Caputo of The Messenger:

Inside DeSantis’ Plan to Outwork Trump in Iowa

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis views Iowa as such a make-or-break state for his presidential bid that he’s considering a plan to campaign across all 99 of its counties, insiders familiar with his thinking tell The Messenger....

“DeSantis is in it to win it,” said Bob Vander Plaats, an Iowa evangelical leader who is neutral in the race so far.

In an example of DeSantis’s Iowa work ethic, Vander Plaats pointed out that the governor was in the state Saturday at two events across the state, but he added a third stop in Des Moines after Trump canceled a nearby rally in the city due to the threat of tornadoes....

“What you saw Saturday was the contrast he’s going to show in Iowa,” a DeSantis confidant who recently spoke to the governor told The Messenger.... “Ron is basically gonna move to Iowa. He’s a 44-year-old Navy vet and former [college Division 1] baseball player. He’s a machine. Trump is 76. And it shows. Iowans will see it with their own eyes when Ron is doing the ‘Full Grassley’ while Trump is playing golf like some retiree at a resort back home.”

Trump is supposed to be vulnerable in Iowa because, in an interview with Caputo a few days ago, he criticized the six-week abortion ban DeSantis recently signed. Here's Bob Vander Plaats (again):

The #IowaCaucuses are wide open. Stay tuned! https://t.co/ENba3ltSLk

— Bob Vander Plaats (@bobvanderplaats) May 15, 2023

New York magazine's Ed Kilgore notes that "the candidates endorsed by Vander Plaats won the caucuses in 2008, 2012, and 2016."

Yes, but all those candidates lost the nomination -- Mike Huckabee in 2008, Rick Santorum in 2012, and Ted Cruz in 2016. In fact, since 1972, the Iowa caucus has chosen the eventual GOP nominee in only two of seven contests in which an incumbent wasn't on the ballot: 1996 (Bob Dole) and 2000 (George W. Bush). Otherwise, Iowa picks GOP losers: George H.W. Bush beat Ronald Reagan in 1980 and Bob Dole trounced Poppy Bush in 1988.

Kilgore says that DeSantis "may see an opportunity to severely damage the 45th president in the very first contest of the 2024 GOP primary" -- but a Trump loss won't "severely damage" him, any more than it did in 2016. If Trump is at risk of losing Iowa, he'll just declare the caucuses rigged and corrupt and then concentrate on the next few contests.

And all of DeSantis's efforts might not matter. In multi-candidate polling, Trump has led all five of the Iowa polls conducted this year, according to FiveThirtyEight; Trump's average lead is 20.8 points. The notion that the evangelical-heavy Iowa GOP electorate will inevitably prefer the most anti-abortion candidate to Trump is belied by ... well, Trump's entire political career. White evangelicals have always been among his strongest supporters -- he vigorously proclaims that he hates the people white evangelicals hate and he does so in the style of the "prosperity gospel" preachers white evangelicals love.

DeSantis can keep up with Trump on the hate, but not the flashy-preacher style. So I think Trump will prevail in Iowa, but if he doesn't, it's no big deal.