Monday, April 17, 2023

THE NEW YORK TIMES IS WRONG: EVEN IN 1990, THE CITY WASN'T AMERICA'S "MURDER CAPITAL"

Today The New York Times covers Jim Jordan's stunt hearings on crime in New York City. The paper regards this as primarily a Donald Trump story:
House Republicans are descending on New York on Monday for a hearing that will use the issue of crime as a political cudgel against Alvin L. Bragg, the Manhattan district attorney who charged former President Donald J. Trump with falsifying business records....

House Republicans, led by Representative Jim Jordan of Ohio, the Judiciary Committee chairman, have been attempting to interfere with Mr. Bragg’s prosecution of Mr. Trump on charges of falsifying business records in connection with his hush money payments to a porn star. They have put public pressure on Mr. Bragg to produce documents and testimony about his ongoing criminal case and bogged down his office with demands.

So even though the hearing is ostensibly about crime, it is really about tarnishing Mr. Bragg and making it seem as if he is pursuing a political vendetta against Mr. Trump at the expense of his duty to prosecute violent crime.
The Times treats crime in the city as an issue on which both sides have a point.
Major crime is down slightly in New York this year compared with the same period last year, according to the latest statistics. But the city has seen crime increase since the coronavirus pandemic disrupted daily life, as have many American cities and towns. There was an increase in major crimes last year in New York and shootings, in particular, surged during the pandemic.

Major felony offenses are about 45 percent higher today than the same period two years ago. At the same time, major felony arrests are also at a 24-year high, Keechant Sewell, the police commissioner, said at a news conference this month.

Mr. Bragg is the top prosecutor for Manhattan, not the whole city of New York, and crime in Manhattan is down from last year by about 2.4 percent, though it, too, remains up significantly from two years ago.
Eventually we're told that New York has significantly lower crime rates than many parts of the Real America:
For instance, Mr. Bragg said, New York’s crime rate is about one-third that of Columbus, Ohio, just south of Mr. Jordan’s district.

New York is also statistically safer relative to its population than other places in Republican and swing states, such as Jefferson County, Ark.; Robeson County, N.C.; Montgomery County, Ala.; and Bibb County, Georgia, according to Jeffrey Butts, director of the Research and Evaluation Center at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice.
The story makes clear that New York City hasn't returned to the bad old days -- but it makes a claim about the city three decades ago that's wrong:
New York was once the murder capital of the country, with a shocking 2,245 homicides in 1990. The city’s turnaround has been studied by criminologists across the country for decades as a success story.

The number of murders fell to fewer than 300 in 2017 and 2018, before the spike in violence during the pandemic. Last year, the city experienced 438 homicides.
Yup, and in 2022, when CBS News ranked the 65 U.S. cities with the highest murder rates per 100,000 population, New York City wasn't even on the list.

But note the words I emphasized above. Was New York the murder capital of the country in 1990?

No. The murder capital was Washington, D.C., with a rate more than twice as high as New York City's. The Washington Post reported:
The nation's capital remained the U.S. murder capital in 1990, but Miami had the greatest rate of all violent crime, according to information released yesterday by the FBI....

The FBI figures indicated that while Washington continued to be the city with the nation's highest murder rate at 77.8 homicides per 100,000 residents, it ranked seventh in overall crimes of violence. Miami was the most violent....

New Orleans, with 61.2 murders per 100,000, rose from fourth place in 1989 to second last year, swapping places with Detroit. Atlanta remained in third place and St. Louis stayed in fifth....

Miami['s] ... overall violent crime rate jumped by almost 660, to 4,353 reported acts of violence per 100,000 people....

Atlanta had the second highest overall violent crime rate among cities with populations of 300,000 or more, with St. Louis, Chicago and Detroit rounding out the top five. Ranked six through 10 were Kansas City, Mo.; Washington; Dallas; Baltimore; and Los Angeles.
Crime in New York City was bad in 1990, but crime in America was bad. New York wasn't the most dangerous city even then. Its murder rate was a bit over 30 per 100,000 then -- bad, but far below Washington's rate. The Times should know better.

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