Friday, April 21, 2023

RON DeSANTIS DOESN'T GET IT: REPUBLICAN VOTERS DON'T CARE ABOUT RESULTS

Like most other recent polls, the new Wall Street Journal poll shows Donald Trump with a sizable lead over Ron DeSantis. No one else is in double digits.
Mr. DeSantis’s 14-point advantage in December has fallen to a 13-point deficit, and he now trails Mr. Trump 51% to 38% among likely Republican primary voters in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup.

... as of now, Mr. Trump also trounces all competitors in a test of a fuller, potential field of 12 Republican contenders, winning 48% support to 24% for Mr. DeSantis.

Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor, draws 5% support, and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott draws 3% in the survey, which included 600 likely GOP primary voters. All other candidates had 2% support or less.
The survey respondents back Trump even though they think DeSantis would be more likely to defeat President Biden.
Some 41% of GOP primary voters say Mr. DeSantis would have the better chance of beating Mr. Biden, while 31% say Mr. Trump would be the stronger candidate.
In fact, voters overall prefer DeSantis to Biden, but prefer Biden to Trump, according to the poll.
Among the 1,500 registered voters in the survey, Mr. DeSantis leads Mr. Biden 48% to 45% in a hypothetical contest, while Mr. Trump lags behind the Democratic president by 3 points.
(Trump lost the popular vote by 3 points in 2016, so Biden might have to beat him by more than that in order to win the Electoral College.)

Put this together with the poll CNN conducted last month...
Looking ahead to the looming primary campaign, the survey finds that most Republicans and Republican-leaning independents would choose a candidate who agrees with their views on major issues (59%) over one who has a strong chance to beat Biden (41%).
... and it seems clear that the GOP electorate is less interested in winning than having its rage centers stroked. And that's what Ron DeSantis doesn't really understand.

He decided that he wouldn't announce his candidacy until after the Florida legislative session ends. He thinks Republican primary voters want him to present them with a package of bills accomplishing right-wing goals.

What they really want is an appeal to their ugly emotions. DeSantis is certainly trying to give them that, but he's frequently distracted by the desire to accomplish stuff. He thinks passing anti-Disney bills is more important than stirring up anti-Disney rage. GOP voters want more rhetoric, even if it means fewer results.

DeSantis is still running a strong second. Obviously, the vengeful laws being passed in Florida are doing him some good, in addition to his rhetoric. But he doesn't understand that the GOP electorate would rather hear him say he might build a prison next to Disney World than watch him try to impose corporate penalties on Disney. Laws, even laws passed out of a sense of vengeance, don't offer an immediate payoff. Rhetoric is the junk food the base wants every day. DeSantis should talk more, even if it means he does less. An all-vitriol approach to campaigning is working for Trump, at least with Republican voters. DeSantis still doesn't get it.

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