DO OCTOBER SURPRISES EVEN WORK ANYMORE?

Herschel Walker has now wiped out Raphael Warnock's lead in the Real Clear Politics polling average. He's led Warnock in the four most recent polls listed at FiveThirtyEight (although one is from Walker's own campaign and two are from right-wing media outlets).

Chuck Schumer is concerned.

🚨Schumer to Biden: "The state where we're going downhill is Georgia. It's hard to believe that they will go for Herschel Walker." pic.twitter.com/m5ELvQAUYO

— Greg Price (@greg_price11) October 27, 2022

Do October surprises even work anymore?

The 2016 election suggests that they can, of course. The reopening of the FBI investigation into her handling of emails might have cost her the election. But it seems clear in retrospect that some of the votes she needed to win that election would have come from people who didn't fully trust her and were inclined to believe that said she could be deceitful and act entitled. A lot of people, including many Democrats, had internalized elements of the right-wing narrative about her.

The Tara Reade non-scandal wasn't an October surprise for Joe Biden -- it hit a few weeks after his Super Tuesday victories, when most of the Democratic field had dropped out of the race -- but it did no damage to his presidential prospects. Aside from Reade's credibility problems, the allegation didn't seem plausible to Biden's voters.

And while Republicans continue to grumble that a late-breaking Hunter Biden story, which was actually intended to be an October surprise, was surpressed by the media and tech companies, enough of the story surfaced that it might have had an impact -- if any of Biden's voters cared. In fact, they had a hard time seeing him as a corrupt global wheeler-dealer, and they still do, which is why Republican midterm attack ads criticize Biden for inflation, not his son's activities. Democratic voters don't care. Swing voters don't care. Republicans know that.

The awful thing about the Herschel Walker abortion stories is that, to any objective person, they absolutely do seem consistent with everything else known about him. We know that he has three children he never publicly acknowledged until the media revealed their existence. We know that even the right-wing son who was the only child he openly acknowledged has called him a terrible parent. We know that rich men pay for abortions all the time, as do current and former sports heroes.

But to his voter base, or even voters somewhat inclined to consider him seriously, he's just a God-fearing conservative man, and even if he did something that they'd find morally outrageous (and that he'd denounce in anyone else), it surely must be the result of momentary moral weakness, which the Lord Jesus has assuredly helped him to overcome.

Maybe October surprises work only when voters aren't worried about losing ground against the other party. Roy Moore lost his Senate election in 2017, when Republicans had just won an upset victory in a presidential election, and also controlled Congress. Democrats in 2016 were complacent after eight years of Barack Obama, and they also thought Hillary Clinton would win no matter what. Primary voters this year knew they could dump Madison Cawthorn and elect another Republican in his place. But Democrats and many swing voters in 2020 were desperate to drive Donald Trump out of the White House, which is one reason they dismissed (phony) Biden scandals. Republicans really want Congress backnow, so they seem more ready to vote for Herschel Walker the more he's attacked. They see the stories and all they think is: Our enemies are behind all this. We must destroy them. And so he might win.