Whom Does the Mainstream Media Want the GOP to Nominate in 2024?-- by which he means, Which Republican does the mainstream media think is most likely to lose in 2024?
One of the reasons Trump won the 2016 Republican presidential primary was that he received way, way, way more coverage than any of his GOP rivals....So the mainstream press, having been spectacularly wrong about Trump's appeal in 2016, will ... make the same mistake in 2024? I mean, sure, it could happen. But there are several reasons why it probably won't.
There are several reasons media institutions who aren’t fans of Republicans covered Trump so extensively. He was a celebrity, and he brought in ratings.... He was unpredictable, exciting, and didn’t bother with boring, dry policy proposals. And indisputably, a lot of folks in media thought Trump would be the easiest candidate for Hillary Clinton to defeat. (Joke’s on them!) ...
In 2024, which Republican will be perceived by the media as the easiest rival for Joe Biden, or Kamala Harris, or some other Democrat to defeat? I suspect it will be Trump, who just lost a presidential election, will be getting into his late 70s, who won’t stop obsessively ranting about how he was the real winner in the 2020 election, and whose actions and words led to the January 6 Capitol Hill riot. And who knows, maybe instances like the Oz endorsement and demonization of Brian Kemp demonstrate that Trump has lost his instinct for what grassroots Republicans want.
First, while much of the high-end media generally wants a contest that will increase readership and ratings, it's not clear that Trump qualifies anymore. His act is stale. Also, it's not clear that the elitists who greatly influence A-list journalists' opinions still want Trump. Many would like a fresh face at the top of the GOP ticket. Many high-level Republican politicians and operatives feel the same way, even though they won't say so for attribution. And, yes, some in the media might have a few pangs of conscience about rooting for a guy they assume will destroy democracy.
But Geraghty's assumption that the mainstream press wants to promote the least electable Republican is nuts. The press doesn't want Democrats to win in 2024 -- top-shelf journalists despise Joe Biden and aren't any fonder of Kamala Harris. They're ready to write about Gavin Newsom as a possible Biden rival because they think he has the potential to humiliate Biden, but they don't want a progressive to win. And the press will be very disadainful if Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, or Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez chooses to run.
They want a centrist, preferably a right-centrist. They'd be thrilled if Joe Manchin would primary Biden, but what they really want is the unicorn they're always seeking: a cultural sophisticated Republican who eschews culture-war politics while also advocating Reaganomics, possibly with a little compassionate conservatism thrown in. Maybe it's Glenn Youngkin! And hey, isn't that Liz Cheney something? What a patriot!
And maybe the press will decide that Ron DeSantis is a serious, policy-oriented middle-of-the-road Republican who just pretends to be a culture warrior. There were hints of that in a recent New Yorker profile:
But while Trump, with his lazy, Barnumesque persona, projects a fundamental lack of seriousness, DeSantis has an intense work ethic, a formidable intelligence, and a granular understanding of policy....The New Yorker story makes clear that DeSantis isn't like that anymore -- but he might be able to persuade the media that he's really not a bad guy, that policy wonk is his comfort zone and the culture-warrior stance is just an act, especially if he beats Trump in the primaries.
In office, DeSantis took steps that suggested he intended to govern closer to the center. He buoyed environmentalists by forcing out the nine-member board of the South Florida Water Management District, political appointees who were considered hostile to environmental interests. He named a commission to tackle algae blooms, which befouled rivers and lakes in the southern part of the state. And he appointed several Black jurists. At his inauguration, DeSantis asked the Reverend R. B. Holmes, the pastor of a predominantly Black church in Tallahassee, to lead the prayer.
The mainstream press still believes a decent person can emerge from the Republican primaries in 2024 -- hell, Mike Pence will be the subject of admiring profiles if he beats Trump. But no one's looking to hype the least electable Republican. Geraghty vastly overestimates the fondness of mainstream reporters for actual Democrats.
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