IN CASE YOU THOUGHT RON DeSANTIS COULD BEAT DONALD TRUMP IN A HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUP

NBC News reports:

Gov. Ron DeSantis is in a strong position to win Florida again, but he could get crushed in a presidential primary if he faces Donald Trump, according to a poll of voters in Miami-Dade, the largest and most diverse county in the state, released Monday.

In a hypothetical primary matchup between Trump and DeSantis, the former president leads his former protégé 55-32 percent among Republicans in the county, the new poll from Bendixen & Amandi International suggests.

This is DeSantis's home turf, but Trump is still the man for GOP voters. In January, The Bulwark's Jonathan Last offered the opinion that it's all about sunk costs:

So you’re a Republican primary voter. You’ve mortgaged your entire political identity to Donald Trump. You left Reaganism. Took the Trump ride. Bought the t-shirt. Wore the hat.

You’ve forced yourself to believe some crazy shit. About QAnon. About the 2020 election being stolen. About COVID being overhyped. About Joe Biden having dementia. All because this was the price of admission to be on Trump’s side.

And now you’re going to chuck all of that and admit you were wrong about Trump in order to throw in with Ron DeSantis?

That’s not how things typically work for people exiting belief systems.

I think Last is a little off base. For one thing, GOP voters don't regard any of that as "crazy shit." Beyond that, in order for DeSantis to beat Trump in a head-to-head matchup, he has to convince Republican voters to vote against the man we libs hate more than anyone else, the guy they believe owns libs more effectively than anyone else ever owned us. It's like expecting Black South Africans to root against Nelson Mandela, or mid-20th-century Boston Irish voters to root against James Michael Curley. He's their messiah. They think he's one of them, except he beat the entire politcal system once (or twice). Voting against him would be letting the libs win.

DeSantis knows how to bring the hate. For example, at a moment when there's a good chance we're about to enter another COVID wave -- possibly just before Floridians begin summer, which is their indoor season -- DeSantis thinks statistics on sickness, hospitalization, and death are a big joke, because treating them that way infuriates the libs:

Florida limits COVID data to every two weeks, state says via meme https://t.co/naO7Xu5v8g

— Tampa Bay Times (@TB_Times) March 14, 2022

Stunts like this make him the second-most popular Republican in America. However...

DeSantis is super popular w GOP base, viewed as downright heroic for his handling of covid. But if he scheduled a rally in one of the other 49 states tomorrow, he wouldn't get a huge crowd and every local R official to show up. Trump would. https://t.co/XLa42FzmKH

— David Weigel (@daveweigel) March 14, 2022

Plus, of course, Trump will tear the hide off DeSantis if DeSantis dares to run against him. Ask Ted Cruz about that.

DeSantis is the heavy favorite if Trump doesn't run. In a Trump-free field, he might win as easily as Trump will if he runs. But Trump won't be beaten in a primary.