CALLING IT NOW: LIZ CHENEY WON'T RUN

A sign of what's to come in Wyoming:

The candidate endorsed by former President Trump in the Republican primary against Rep. Liz Cheney won a straw poll conducted by GOP activists in Wyoming on Saturday.

Harriet Hageman won 59 votes in the straw poll conducted by the Wyoming Republican State Central Committee, according to the Casper Star-Tribune. Cheney won six votes, while state Sen. Anthony Bouchard (R) won two and Denton Knapp won one.

I get that this is a tiny sample of the voting population. But if party activists can't bring themselves to vote for the person seen as the Establishment candidate, then it's hard to imagine who will, in a primary electorate that's radicalized every day by Fox News.

The Republican primary is a long way away -- it'll take place on August 16 -- but we're a year away from the Capitol riot and the big break with Donald Trump, which smart people keep telling us will come any minute now, still isn't here. And even if there is a big break with Trump, it will be in favor of someone like Ron DeSantis or Glenn Youngkin who's seen as a successor to Trump and as a more effective owner of the libs. It's not going to be in favor of Republicans who broke with Trump and consort with the enemy.

At some point, Cheney will admit to herself that not only will she lose if she's on the ballot in August, she'll lose by 40 points or more to Trump's candidate. I think that's more humiliation than she'll be willing to endure. It also won't look good for the movement to hold Trump accountable -- I'm not a fan of Cheney overall, but I think she's sincere about trying to do that. I also believe that it doesn't matter what investigators discover about Trump's plot to overturn the election -- voters' opinions are unchangeable and have been for a while. No one's going to come around and say, "I had a Trump flag on my house, but now I see he was a monster. Good for you, Liz."

It's over for her. She'll drop out of the race sometime in the next few months.