I HAVE MY DOUBTS ABOUT THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM ON STIMULUS CHECKS AND GEORGIA

We're being told that President Trump shivved Mitch McConnell last night:

Trump released a video criticizing the $900 billion coronavirus relief package that congressional lawmakers passed on Monday and demanding they increase the checks....

This leaves the next move to McConnell, who has for months insisted on a smaller stimulus package and has rejected Democratic proposals for $1,200 checks.

He now has two undesirable options:

* He can cave and accept a larger stimulus figure after fighting for months to keep it down.

* He can block the larger checks and take the political heat for it.

The conventional wisdom is that he and his party will be in trouble if the larger checks don't happen, because it's now clear to voters in the Georgia runoffs -- who want more government aid -- that what's holding up that additional aid is the Republican Senate.

I'm with Joshua Holland on this:

There are folks on this website who think this ends with people getting $2,000 checks out of Mitch McConnell and God bless 'em.

— Joshua Holland 🔥 (@JoshuaHol) December 23, 2020

My take:

Mitch will be fine. He'll just say the checks can be bigger if there are offsetting cuts. The cuts he proposes will be brutal and will be rejected by the Democrats, who'll message this poorly and get the blame. https://t.co/6fFrNXxaA2

— Steve M. (@nomoremister) December 23, 2020

And lo and behold:

Asked directly if that meant she would support increasing the direct payments to $2k, Loeffler said: “I'll certainly look at supporting it if it repurposes wasteful spending toward that, yes.” #gapol #gasen pic.twitter.com/249djyDRdQ

— Greg Bluestein (@bluestein) December 23, 2020

If Trump doesn't back down and sign the bill as is -- and despite his grumbling, he might -- McConnell will just add a poison pill or two, then blame Democrats when his bad deal is rejected.

I also believe that the impact of this on Georgia Senate voting is being greatly overstated. Reports on early voting in Georgia say that, yes, Black turnout is strong, but so is turnout among older voters, who tend to be more Republican. And this is without any stimulus checks.

I expect the runoffs to be close, but I think GOP voters will turn out for the same reason they always do: Because they've been told for decades that Democrats are evil. Anti-Democratic negative partisanship didn't just cease to exist when Trump started complaining about Republicans who won't help him steal the presidential election.

If Democrats win the runoffs, it won't be because of GOP infighting or because checks don't arrive. It'll be because they countered a healthy GOP turnout with strong turnout of their own.