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Monday, November 25, 2019

EMERSON POLL THAT SHOWED PLUNGING SUPPORT FOR IMPEACHMENT ALSO SHOWED RASMUSSEN-LEVEL BLACK SUPPORT FOR TRUMP

One reason a lot of observers think impeachment is a flop for Democrats is that a recent Emerson College poll showed that support for impeachment is now underwater. The poll, conducted November 17-20 and published November 21, showed that support for impeachment had declined from 48%-44% in October to 43%-45% now. The poll also showed Trump with a net-positive job approval rating: 48% approval, 47% disapproval. And it showed Trump trailing Joe Biden by only 2 in a head-to-head match-up; Trump tied Elizabeth Warren, trailed Bernie Sanders by 1, and beat Pete Buttigieg by 4.

Bad news all around. But at least one number in the poll breakdown is awfully suspicious, though you have to look at the Excel data file to spot it.

You won't be surprised to learn that the only other pollster that's ever shown Trump with a net-positive job approval rating over the past two and a half years -- Rasmussen -- has recently found Trump to have a 34% approval rating among black voters.



No rational person takes that seriously, right? It's Rasmussen.

But here's the Emerson data:



Sorry -- it's just not possible that 34.5% of black voters regard Trump favorably.

It's possible that the number is up since 2016 -- according to a recent Economist/YouGov poll, 10% of blacks have a "very favorable" opinion of Trump and 8% have a "somewhat favorable" opinion. Combined disapproval is 77% (64% strong, 13% somewhat). By comparison, total black disapproval in the Emerson poll is only 58.7%.

In an October Quinnipiac poll, black approval of Trump was 10%. Disapproval was 88%. A November Gallup poll had Trump approval among all non-whites at 21%, and disapproval at 74%.

So I don't buy these Emerson numbers.

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