WHAT IF BIDEN IS LEADING IN THE POLLS BECAUSE HE REALLY IS THE FRONT-RUNNER?

In the race to be the Democrats' 2020 presidential nominee, Joe Biden is leading in national polls, leading in Iowa, and leading in New Hampshire -- yet smart people don't think he's really the front-runner. They ascribe his lead to name recognition, and assume he'll be a bad presidential candidate in this race because he's been a bad presidential candidate in his past races. They assume his actions and positions as a senator will sink him.

But what if he really is the front-runner? Here's an alternate scenario. As I'll note below, there's some evidence to back this up:

I really don't have better than 20% odds on any 2020 candidate right now, but if there's one scenario I wonder about a lot these days it's Biden consolidating the normie vote early on and just never losing it en route to the nomination

— Benjy Sarlin (@BenjySarlin) March 6, 2019

The evidence comes from a political pro working in South Carolina:

So, I’m working with a client today to conduct a focus group of black women who are likely to vote in the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary. I have the client’s permission to tweet out anecdotes and observations, but they’d prefer not to be named.

— Danny Barefoot (@dannybarefoot) March 5, 2019

Here's what happens when the focus group of South Carolina black Democratic women is asked about Biden:

Now we’re on to Biden. One woman says it’s the closest we can get to a 3rd term for Obama w/o electing Michelle. Lots of chuckles but also lots of heads nodding in agreement. Another says she would vote for him today but isn’t sure if he’s too “old” or “sloppy” to take on Trump.

— Danny Barefoot (@dannybarefoot) March 5, 2019

Now we’ll move on to some negative message testing against Biden.

— Danny Barefoot (@dannybarefoot) March 5, 2019

Yeah…most of these hits just aren’t landing. In response to a short description of Biden’s opposition to integration efforts one woman asks if we’re honestly asking her to believe he is a segregationist. https://t.co/yoAxPHBa4J

— Danny Barefoot (@dannybarefoot) March 5, 2019

The Anita Hill hit is better. [After being shown a quick explainer] When asked if Biden owes her an apology the room is unanimous that he does. A few people haven’t heard of Anita Hill.

— Danny Barefoot (@dannybarefoot) March 5, 2019

Basically, Anita Hill is the only thing that modestly resonates. Calling out some of his more conservative positions is falling flat. These participants like Biden. I think he’s probably (unfortunately, at least IMHO) a stronger front runner than the CW.

— Danny Barefoot (@dannybarefoot) March 5, 2019

This isn't just name ID. These SC women really like Biden. They don't want to take chances in 2020 and feel like he's a sure win.

— Danny Barefoot (@dannybarefoot) March 5, 2019

Above, NBC's Benjy Sarlin imagines that Biden could win a plurality of "normie" voters while the rest of the field remains split. By "normie," I imagine Sarlin means voters who aren't deeply engaged politics obsessives, i.e., folks who watch MSNBC every evening and log a lot of hours on political Twitter. He may be thinking of older white moderate Rust Belt Democrats -- the voters most identified with Biden.

I think Biden will do well with those voters -- but he's also well liked by these black women from South Carolina. It might be appropriate to think of them as "normies," too, assuming they're not politics junkies or tireless campaign volunteers. (Black women are the backbone of the Democratic Party in the South, but it's not clear whether these are regular volunteers or just ordinary voters.)

Barefoot goes on to note that, despite what you might imagine, Biden is soundly beating Kamala Harris among these voters so far:

Now Kamala. Not everyone knows how to say her name. Quick raise of hands shows a 70-30 split in favor of Biden if it were 1 on 1. 60% of the Biden people say they’re open to changing their mind. Only 30% of the (much) smaller Kamala group says they would be opening to changing.

— Danny Barefoot (@dannybarefoot) March 5, 2019

That may not mean much -- at this stage of the 2008 contest, Hillary Clinton was trouncing Barack Obama among black voters. Allegiances can change. But what this does suggest is that Biden has a deep reservoir of goodwill among these voters.

In 2016, it was difficult to sell GOP voters on the notion that Donald Trump was a bad man because they'd seen him for a decade and a half on The Apprentice and they were comfortable with him. For Democratic voters, Biden's eight years as Obama's VP might be his Apprentice.

I realize that CNN recently had its own six-member focus group that rejected Biden outright. I'm not saying for certain that Biden will retain his lead in the polls.

But he might. We shouldn't write him off as a relic.