Monday, June 18, 2018

TRUMP WILL NEVER BE A POPULAR PRESIDENT, BECAUSE FIGHTING IS A COMPULSION

I'm so old I remember the Trump-Kim summit in Singapore -- oh, wait, that was a week ago. It was one of the rare moments in the Trump presidency that seemed at all unifying. Here are some results from a Monmouth University poll released last Thursday:
Opinion of the president’s job performance may have been helped by the talks with the North Korean leader. Trump’s overall rating currently stands at 43% approve and 46% disapprove. The last time Trump’s disapproval rating was less than 50% in Monmouth’s polling was last September....

Most Americans (71%) say that the recent meeting between Trump and Kim was a good idea, including 93% of Republicans, 74% of independents, and 49% of Democrats. Only 20% say it was a bad idea....

Just under half of the public (46%) says the meeting made Trump look stronger on the world stage compared with only 13% who say it made him look weaker....

Half of the public (51%) say it is likely that this meeting will help reduce the nuclear threat posed by North Korea....
These numbers aren't spectacular, but if you're a president who's struggling in the polls, why wouldn't you want to build on an event that not only thrilled your base but was overwhelmingly popular among independents and viewed favorably by nearly half of Democrats?

Within days, however, Trump was obsessing over the report by the Justice Department's inspector general, claiming it exonerated him in the Russia investigation even though that wasn't the report's subject. He attacked the FBI. His loudest surrogate called for an FBI agent to be sent to prison.

And now, when the separation of migrant families at the border is the biggest story in America, the president seems determined not to alter the policy, retaining it as a bargaining chip so he can have his border wall. This is standard-issue Trump heartlessness, and of course it plays well with the base, although not as well as you'd expect -- 46% of Republicans approve of the policy while 33% disapprove, according to an Ipsos/Daily Beast poll -- but it's divisive (overall approval is 27%, as opposed to 56% disapproval).

The policy is bad politics. Republican lawmakers recognize that, according to some reports.

But this is Trump's style. If you think he'll ever abandon divisiveness and make an effort to emphasize broadly popular policies like infrastructure, forget it. Trump likes to brawl, and years of binge-watching Fox News have taught him how to brawl politically all the time. He might allow himself to be momentarily diverted by a widely popular policy, but he's incapable of making that a habit. Fighting with people is what he does. He'll never stop.

The base wants permanent combat, so he'll probably never go below 35% in the polls. But barring an extraordinary 9/11-style event, he'll never go above 50%. He's just not interested in doing the kinds of things that would make him a popular president.

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