Friday, July 03, 2015

STOP ASCRIBING TRUMP'S POLL SUCCESS TO NAME RECOGNITION

Several of the reasons given by National Journal's Lauren Fox for Donald Trump's surge in the polls make sense: In a crowded field, it doesn't take more than low-double-digit support to get into the top tier (although tell that to Carly Fiorina and George Pataki); also, as pollster Geoff Garin tells Fox, " there is a segment of the Republican electorate that is strongly anti-immigrant and there is an overlapping piece of the Republican electorate that is anti-politician."

But I'm tired of reading this about Trump's good numbers:
Several pollsters consulted for the story say the recent bump may reflect the entrepreneur's high name ID more than it shows genuine voter support.
Excuse me -- did Trump not have high name ID before he announced his candidacy? I'm pretty sure America knew who he was -- he was on television and everything -- and yet, in nine polls released before (or just after) his announcement, his numbers were between 1% and 5%. Since then? 11% and 12%. That's nationwide; results in Iowa are similar. He got an announcement bump, and name recognition has obviously helped him, but it's crazy to pretend that he instantly polled well because people knew his name -- he didn't initially poll well.

It's possible that he polled poorly prior to the announcement because admirers didn't think he'd really run. But I think a portion of the GOP electorate simply loves what he's saying. They always knew who he was.
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6 comments:

  1. Victor9:03 AM

    He is the GOP's unbridled Id!

    He's rich, loud and proud, and an open bigot!
    What's not to love if you're part of the GOP's base?

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  2. petrilli10:40 AM

    Nobody loves their Mexican made $7 heros $3 egg&cheeses more than macho shithead New Yorkers in their leased SUV's who honk and curse at bone tired kitchen workers riding their bikes home from a double shift.

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  3. petrilli12:50 PM

    Anyone care to guess what Trump would poll in Staten Island? I would guess north of 30%

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  4. Anonymous12:56 PM

    I may be wrong on this, but I think Trump is a sideshow. He's this moment's "None of the Above" candidate for the GOP. He's also the one that pranksters are going to answer with if the telephone pollsters call them. He has some very vocal supporters on the Internet - but then so does Rand Paul, and he's never going to be President either. The Internet Megaphone makes everyone's support look deeper than it actually is.

    Again I may be wrong - if he actually makes it through the first few weeks of the GOP primary campaign with strong support in Iowa, New Hampshire, S.C. and a few other states then I'll start to worry (because if he does that then Trump in 2016 would be a repeat of Reagan in 1980 and that would start to scare me).

    I would assume, however, that he implodes before he reaches that stage. If one of the Republican candidates doesn't have the top tier opposition research group to dig up enough dirt on Trump to kill his campaign, I'll be highly surprised. We're not talking about a politician here - we're talking about one of the biggest self promoting blowhard land developers in recent history. At this point I'm assuming that between Jeb! and Walker one of their campaigns has the goods on him and are just waiting for the most damaging moment to drop it.

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  5. Roger2:42 PM

    Trump has captured at least 10 percent of racist GOP voters with his bigoted comments. The rest of the racist GOP voters don't think he can win.

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  6. Michael3:27 PM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

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