The website of the cable channel Fusion has just conducted a big poll of millennials, and the favorite presidential candidate among Republican "likely millennial voters" is ... um ...
It's Paul Ryan, and Rand isn't even the runner-up. What happened? Isn't Rand the hip new thing? Isn't his massive appeal to the kids the reason that all the smart not-so-young political insiders think he's the future of Republicanism?
A flaw in this survey is that independents weren't polled separately -- then again, independents don't have primaries. In order for Rand Paul to be the savior of the GOP, he has to win contests in which the electorates will be mostly or entirely Republican. Maybe young Republicans will evolve into Rand fans in the next year or so. Or maybe this is an inaccurate poll. Or maybe the vote for Rand in states where non-Republicans can vote in the primaries is going to be so massive that he'll be the nominee anyway.
But I doubt it.
The surveyed millennials have soured somewhat on Obama (49% are "very" or "somewhat disappointed," 49% are "very" or "somewhat satisfied") -- and yet Hillary Clinton (who gets 58% of millennial Democrats' support, compared to Joe Biden's 13% and Elizabeth Warren's 9%) kicks a generic Republican's butt among millennials:
Again, we don't know how Rand Paul would do specifically against Hillary. Then again, he has to win the nomination first.
Oh, and on the generic ballot question for 2014, Democrats beat Republicans 47%-32% among these millennials. So I guess Obama isn't the brand-killer for the Democratic Party a lot of people assume he is.
The only Republican who worries me, is Jeb.
ReplyDeleteAnd he doesn't worry me that much.
His last name, and his support for education reform and immigration that everyone hates, doom him.
On the other hand, we are one major terrorist attack, or another major economic downturn, and Ted Cruz-ader - Christian and conservative demagogue, can make a serious run at the Presidency - bringing Christian Theocratic Fascist Plutocracy/Oligarchy along with him.
He'll carry the flag in one hand, the Bible in the other, and pocket US Constitutions in every suit and pants pocket.
Ryan wins because he is so dreamy, with the backwards baseball cap!! Seriously, I think he and Jeb get points with Millenials because they at least attempt to present policy options. Most of what Ryan says, especially about poverty, is bunk, but at least he makes the attempt. Having taught Millenials, I can tell you they are not impressed with the horse race. They are passionate about issues. So they see through Rand Paul and his tendency to pander. They look for people who they perceive as authentic and who are solution oriented. Even if your solutions are wrong headed, you get credit for trying.
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