SANTORUM: WHY I WORRY THAT THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT

Dave Weigel spots something odd in the new Public Policy Polling survey that shows Rick Santorum with a 15-point lead over Mitt Romney in Michigan:

He's only up by 12 points with actual Republican voters, but he has a 40-21 advantage with the Democrats and independents planning to vote that pushes his overall lead up to 15 points.

Weigel writes:

This is weirder than you think, trust me. In 2006, when Bob Casey, Jr. exiled Santorum from the Senate, the guy won 41 percent of the overall vote. He held 28 percent of independents and 7 percent of Democrats. He was more or less despised by anyone who wasn't a Republican or conservative.

What's got me a little bit worried about Santorum is that we're assuming he's eminently beatable because he got shellacked in 2006. But he seemed like part of the Republican power structure in 2006, and we -- moderates as well as liberals -- were thoroughly sick of that power structure by then, on everything from the Iraq War to the attempt to keep Terri Schiavo alive.

Now I worry that Santorum seems to some voters like the plucky underdog, even within his own party. Back when he was in office, his culture-war meanness seemed to have real clout, because he was part of a right-wing gang that didn't like to take prisoners; at this moment, even to me, he comes off as almost harmless, although I'm fully aware of the fact that he'd be an awful, dangerous president.

Could he possibly do well against Obama if he wins the nomination (which I'm starting to think will happen)? Could he surprise us because voters might see him not as the nasty culture warrior he was when he had power, but as a gee-whiz aw-shucks Boy Scout, and figure he won't really turn the clock back on abortion and contraception and gay rights (except for the old white cultural conservatives, who may think he really can turn the clock back, and who may be Democrats and independents like the ones supporting him in Michigan)?

And before you shout "Man on dog!" and point to poll results showing increasing support for gay marriage and persistent support for legal abortion, let me remind you that right-wing culture warriors are a hell of a lot more likely to vote their social-issue convictions than the rest of us are. Otherwise, how did Republicans win so many recent election cycles?

(Portions of this post appear at Balloon Juice.)