Thursday, August 04, 2011

ACTUALLY, NON-WINGNUT AMERICANS AREN'T ALL THAT NEGATIVE ABOUT THE DEBT DEAL (but the misperception helps wingnuts)

Look, I was furious at the debt-ceiling hostage crisis, I'm disgusted at the outcome, and I'm appalled that hostage-taking is going to be a template for Washington's future attempts to deal with this and other issues. But an agreement was reached, right-wingers got 98% of what they wanted rather than 100%, and the public is much more content with the result than you're being told: apart from right-wingers, the public isn't all that horrified by the outcome.

Why does that matter?

This is a confusing point I'm trying to make. Bear with me.

It matters because once again, as in the fight over the health care law, Republicans made the battle extremely ugly; then, after the fight was over, polls were taken, Republicans expressed near-universal opposition, everyone else expressed a combination of support, opposition, and befuddlement -- yet the common perception is that everyone hates the result.

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I'm saying all this is response to a USA Today/Gallup poll. Here's USA Today on the results:

The hard-won, last-minute agreement to raise the debt ceiling and cut the deficit gets low ratings from Americans, who by more than 2-1 predict it will make the nation's fragile economy worse rather than better.

Actually, neither of those statements is quite accurate. If you look at Gallup's write-up of the poll, you see that approval/disapproval is 39%/46%, with 15% offering no opinion. I'd say 39%/46% is reasonably close to par. I'm surprised that that's the case, but that's the case.

And everyone but conservatives approves of the deal -- liberals by 51%-35%, moderates by 48%-32%. Only conservatives reject it, 64%-26%. (Those numbers are bizarre, I know, but there they are.)

And as for that prediction -- "Americans ... by more than 2-1 predict it will make the nation's fragile economy worse rather than better" -- well, no, they don't, really. A total of 41% say it will make the economy worse, 17% say it will make the economy better, and 33% say it will have no effect. So 50% say it will help or do nothing.

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Non-conservative voters are confused -- but they're relieved that some sort of agreement was reached and that Democrats and Republicans managed to come together. They don't think it'll help the economy, but voters in general don't think anything ever helps the economy anymore. (I can't say I blame them.)

The spin of this poll as overwhelmingly negative helps Republicans and the right because Republicans invariably run for office as people outside the process -- they invariably run against Washington. I wish voters understood the debt deal better -- I wish they were disgusted, for the right reasons -- but the fact is, they're not all that put off by the outcome. They're as put off as they were by the outcome of the health care fight -- not thrilled, far from positive, but far from universally negative. Saying that "everyone hates Washington," however, plays into the GOP's carefully crafted outsider-party image. So this poll helps Republicans.

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