HOW YOU GONNA GO AGAINST AN ARMY WITH AN ... UM ... WEINER?

Zandar and Allan Brauer think Weinergate happened when it did because last weekend was when Clarence Thomas released his 2010 financial disclosure forms, which exposed political activity on the part of Thomas's wife, Ginni, that clearly rise to the level of a conflict of interest. Weiner has been working to draw attention to this issue for some time; also, as Allan points out, Andrew Breitbart has said that Thomas's confirmation hearing helped trigger his political awakening as a wingnut.

The timing is quite suspicious -- but if the hit on Weiner went out at that moment for that reason, it strikes me as using a nuclear weapon to kill a fly. That doesn't mean the theory is wrong -- right-wingers are hardly averse to overkill. But it does mean they didn't need to do it. I'm sorry, but Weiner was never going to be a threat to Clarence Thomas.

Weiner was going to be one Democrat going up against a prominent Republican. That's always a massive mismatch, given the fact that the GOP and the right-wing noise machine swarm en masse to the defense of any Republican who's attacked in any way, while the lone Democrat is just ... a lone Democrat. No one ever has a combative Democrat's back except maybe a few bloggers and MSNBC prime-timers. In a battle like that, the GOP invariably wins.

We can see that right now -- where's another Democrat to pick up Weiner's "Conflicted Clarence Thomas" campaign where Weiner left off? If Republicans were doing something like this and their main messenger got embroiled in a personal scandal, do you think they'd just let the matter drop?

On the other hand, this probably would have been an exercise in futility under the best circumstances. Just as we seem to have decided during Iran-contra, and then again during 2007--2008, that the country couldn't endure the impeachment of a Republican president or vice president, I think it's just considered inconceivable to challenge any of the Republican Supreme Court justices. I really don't think the sustainers of conventional wisdom would allow it to happen. The Thomas issue has gotten zero traction, and I see no reason to believe that was ever going to change, penis tweet or no penis tweet.

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(And yes, I think this was a hit on Weiner, even though I've criticized him; I think he's squirming guiltily because maybe he's sent something he shouldn't have to someone he shouldn't have at some time, but I agree that this was an attempt to frame him.)