MEMO TO JOHN McCAIN: THE GOP BASE HATES YOU

One bit of evidence: this transcript of a recent Rush Limbaugh monologue, at his site. (It'll revert to subscriber-only content soon, if it hasn't already, so if you really must read it, jump now.) The headline is

Disaster Does Loom If Democrats Win, and Will Lead to Nomination of McCain

It's a hold-your-nose-and-vote-GOP speech for righties who are disillusioned; as Rush sees it, the apocalypse is coming if Dems win this November -- not just for the next two years, but beyond:

In two years, you same people who will have helped and bring about an ascension to power by the Democrats are going to be so angry; you're going to be so fed up over what they have tried to do, over the things they will maybe have accomplished, that you are going to demand power back -- and you will accept anybody that you think has a chance of winning it.

Right now, that looks like McCain above anybody else -- who, I must tell you, is not a conservative -- and so what are you probably going to end up doing? You're going to be so frustrated by 2008 and the thought of Hillary Clinton becoming president is so obnoxious, so abhorrent, that in 2008, you will flush your precious principles down the drain and elect a Republican, precisely the kind of Republican you think you're running against now. Or you will at least nominate one.

This is accompanied by a helpful illustration:



So the media figure most respected by the most fervent voters in John McCain's party flat-out hates McCain. He uses the horrifying prospect of a McCain ascendancy to rally that base.

Can McCain really win the '08 nomination under these conditions? (Even under the conditions of desperation Limbaugh describes?)

(McCain, of course, is going to respond to the base's hostility by shamelessly sucking up to Limbaugh and the most odious right-wing opinion-shapers. I don't know if it will work, but it's going to be ugly to watch.)